This article intends on giving a summarized strategic analysis on the new defence partnership that has been recently created between the government of Japan and Philippines for a greater surveillance and defence capability cooperation in the region as a response to the growing power of China in the South China sea.
It intends also on analysing the strategic regional consequences for the balance of power in the Pacific and what it essentially means for the US and China and the stability of the region.
Even though in the past the Japanese government has established defence agreements with other governments in the Pacific, with the two most relevant being their defence partnership with the US and their agreements with Australia, this new deal represents a new breakthrough in Japanese defence politics as it is the first defence agreement with a fellow East Asian country with the clear strategic objective of creating a greater cooperation to face China´s aggressive presence near Taiwan.
The agreement has been in the making for some year, with the first negotiations being made public around 2015 when President Benigno Aquino and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met on November of the same year during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting that was being held in Manila
Although the agreement has been signed, Secretary Gazmin did not immediately mention any specific defence equipment that Japan has already transferred or plans to transfer, however he has made public that the Armed Forces of the Philippines are in deep strategic need for a greater development in the national security areas of surveillance, intelligence gathering and reconnaissance capabilities- with the Pilipino state expecting thus as a result of this partnership a help in those areas from the Japanese state.
Recently, however the Japanese government has confirmed that it will provide defence support to the Philippines, already confirming that it will donate military aircraft in second-hand from its air force surveillance fleet and help the Philippine government which is short of resources, upgrade its capabilities of surveillance in the South China Sea, enabling its navy to better patrol the disputed waters in the region.
The Philippines government has also expressed the interest in becoming a client of the Japanese Defence industry by buying military equipment made in Japan, with Philippine defence officials additionally expressing the interest in also acquiring surplus war-planes as well as submarines in second-hand for the Japanese Navy- the security accord has thus opened a series of defence opportunities of equipment sharing and sale for military purposes.
Its also worth taking into consideration that the agreement was done with a sense of urgency that accelerated its process of negotiation- with finalization only taking 3 months- with this small amount of time and the speed at which the deal was achieved also translating how the Ukraine war has globally affected the power-balance and made many governments accelerated their defence programs.
This agreement also is a necessary step for the Philippine government to effectively achieve its delineated strategy of 2011 which has the ultimate aim of building-up the defence capabilities of the Armed Forces of the Philippines for the Philippine government to become capable of defending its geopolitical interests and assure the territorial features it hods in the South China sea as China´s power increases. Such an objective can only be achieved with a secure and effective surveillance military system that is efficiently equipped to prevent additional unoccupied islands and reefs from being taken by China´s navy or militias.
Additionally, the agreement is important given the fact that the Philippine government has for the most part been unsuccessful at fully modernizing its military forces due to having little financial resources. Consequently, Japan will play for the years to come a important role in the modernization of the armed forces of the Philippines.
This is agreement can also be seen as an immediate and accelerated response towards the military presence of Chinas island-building activities in the South China Sea, with the Japanese government being highly worried given the fact that much of its trade and export and import naval commercial routes form which the well being of its economy depends go through the South China Sea and with Tokyo having made the commitment to grow its surveillance capabilities as China gets progressively more assertive geopolitically in the region.
The help that Japan has offered also serves as an effective strategy in the medium term as an alternative and indirect manner to defend its interests without getting directly in a open confrontation with China, something that would be highly inconvenient given the important relationship the Japanese economy has with the Chinese economy in addition to its latest effort at pacifying its tensions with the Chinese Peoples Republic.
Japan must thus continue to play a delicate game of exploring indirect ways of deterring the growth of Chinese expansionism in the region, while at the same time grow its military at a pace that is sufficient enough to become better equipped to defend itself while simultaneously not breaking its constitution that limits its defence apparatus.
Although this is the underlying strategic imperative of Japan, the Philippine government has also simultaneously in its agenda the objective of playing a delicate diplomatic game where it seeks to maintain an image of pacifism and non-aggression with the Secretary Gazmin insisting that the new agreement between Japan and the Philippines is not directed against any state and aims only to address “strategic gaps in the underfunded AFP”.
This delicate diplomatic game is however in the long-term rather secondary since the inevitable result will be the Chinese state seeing reality for what it is geopolitically and strategically speaking, that is, a clear indication of the increasing level of cooperation between the Japanese and Philippine government, aligned in triangle with the US, to counter the growth of power of China and its regional military expansion.
With Japan being more determined to cooperate with Southeast Asian states, the US along with Australia should create a stronger network of cooperation and promote more regional initiatives, where other geo-political actors for the South-East Asia such as Vietnam and Thailand might also participate in a gradual manner in military exercises of surveillance and in military equipment deals.
Ultimately, such a prospect would strategically serve as a great opportunity for Japan to expand its security network regionally as a well as assuring a greater security for the maritime commercial routes of merchant ships that pass through the region and that are strategic for its economy.
On the part of the US, such an initiative would also prove incredibly useful both form the geo-political point of view in terms of assuring a greater security belt that can effectively thwart Chinese attempts at greater expansion in the South China Sea and also on the long-term assure by helping Japan and the Philippines, assure its regional leadership as a secure and responsible alternative to Chinese power.
However, for such an alliance to take shape and for the US government to take full strategic advantage of the cooperation between Tokyo and Manila, the American leadership must understand that it needs to treat both Japan and the Philippines as equal players, even if they do not hold the same power as the US, and create an environment of open diplomatic honesty and greater intelligence sharing between the three states.
Only through such actions can the necessary confidence for the establishment of a cooperation between the 3 states that can grow in the coming year and strategically resilient be created.
The 3 states need however to achieve in the short to medium term in the very least a shared understanding of their mutual strategic obligations beyond the region with the US making it clear that its not only the US that has obligations to Manila and Tokyo but the Japanese and Philippine government has well.
The new defence guidelines that are in talks and being elaborated by Washington and that will be announced this year will be a critical step were the affirmation of this mutual commitment will most likely take place, however such a project will be a continuous process.
A immediate way to strengthen the bond between all the 3 countries would be for the US to incentivise the creation of a cooperative investment program between Japan and the US for the Philippine to build up its defence capabilities and its economy, creating in the process with the support of the US a greater economic relationship between Tokyo and Manila.
In conclusion it should be understood that regardless of such an initiative actually taking place, the new alliance between Japan and the Philippines presents a series of new challenges for China and opportunities for the US.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
