The addition of Finland and Sweden will strengthen NATO militarily surely. But this could even help Vladimir Putin’s propaganda about Russia’s encirclement.
Finnish President, Sauli Niinistö, and Prime Minister, Sanna Martin, said in a joint statement last Thursday that the country would join NATO without delay. The decision ends more than seven decades of formal neutrality by Finland (and 200 years of neutrality for Sweden) and represents a massive strategic move.
Finland’s accession will more than double Russia’s border with NATO. The country has a 1 300 kilometres border with Russia, and its capital, Helsinki, is only a three and a half hour train ride from St. Petersburg. The parliamentary vote scheduled for this week, which is needed to formally apply for membership, is considered a mere formality. NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, said Thursday that Finland’s accession to the alliance would be “smooth and quick”. It is likely that neighboring Sweden will also join the military alliance immediately thereafter. The Social Democratic government abandoned its decades-long opposition to NATO membership on Sunday.
Russia reacted to the prospect of NATO soldiers, tanks and other weapons being stationed just hours from its second-largest city by warning that the threat of war would intensify significantly. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the decision was definitely a threat and warned Russia would respond with symmetrical measures. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, warned in a Telegram post that NATO expansion on Russia’s borders would increase the likelihood of a direct and open conflict between NATO and Russia instead of their “proxy war”. Such a conflict always carries the risk of developing into an unrestricted nuclear war, and that would be a disastrous scenario for everyone.
In its own statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow felt “compelled to take retaliatory steps, both military-technical and other nature, in order to stop the threat to its national security”.
The governments of Finland and Sweden, the NATO member states and the media around the world claim that the Scandinavian states’ decision to join NATO is a defensive response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Former Finnish Prime Minister, Alexander Stubb, said NATO membership had been a done deal since Russia invaded Ukraine. Swedish Defense Minister, Peter Hultqvist, who had publicly stated last November that Stockholm would not join NATO, claimed that the invasion showed Putin to be unpredictable and unreliable, forcing Sweden to reconsider its position.
The BBC stated, “Vladimir Putin’s actions have shattered a long-standing sense of stability in northern Europe, leaving Sweden and Finland feeling vulnerable”.
This feels a little bit like self-serving propaganda. Because the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland can easily be viewed as a massive provocation. By extending the NATO-Russia border, the West is opening a new front in Finland. Besides the fact that this could put the Finns at risk, this plays perfectly in Putins agenda of making his nation, and eventually, the world believe that NATO wants to circle Russia to crush it.
Helsinki and Stockholm have systematically deepened their military-strategic relations with the NATO in recent decades. After becoming members of NATO’s “Partnership for Peace” in the mid-1990s – a key mechanism that facilitated the expansion of the military alliance into Eastern Europe – Finnish and Swedish troops participated in several exercises and NATO missions.
Their delay in applying for full NATO membership was largely due to the widespread hostility of the populations of both countries toward the aggressive military alliance. The anti-Russian campaign and war fever unleashed by governments and the media in the West after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp shift in opinion polls. The Finnish and Swedish governments have used this and maybe even took it as an excuse to join NATO.
Trying to round the edges with the Finns last Thursday, Niinistö and Marin tried to present their decision as an act of national defence, declaring, “NATO membership will strengthen Finland’s security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance”.
This is most probably a lie. The inclusion of Finland and Sweden in the military alliance will turn the whole region into another staging area for military conflict with Russia. Just as the U.S. and Europe are supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons worth tens of billions of dollars to break Russia’s back with no regard for the destruction of the country, Finland and Sweden would also become frontline states and potential war zones. Terms and conditions are still negotiated. And for now, Putins only response is that as long as no NATO-troupes or weapons are placed in Finland, both countries are out of danger. Which feels like a threat.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61397478
https://1997-2001.state.gov/regions/eur/nato_fs-pfp.html
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
