The Horn of Africa is currently being the stage of a high-stakes power struggle between a local faction in the Tigray region and the current Ethiopian government. The articulations in Ethiopian society are characterized by several ethnic groups who, throughout time, have engaged in cooperation and conflict with each other, and the people in the Tigray have been active members of this dynamic. In 2020, the other ethnic groups coalesced, and the representatives of the Tigray region denounced this amalgamation, leading to a power struggle which has been geographically focused on Tigray. This essay intends to provide a useful picture of the historical context leading to the current scenario, and to suggest some meaningful recommendations to mitigate the situation on the ground, focusing on dialogue and representative and inclusive conflict resolution.
Following the typical dynamics most countries go through during the previous centuries, the region of Ethiopia had many sovereign leaders rise up as figureheads of the location. One big difference that sets Ethiopia apart from many other such nations is the fact that they had a very small colonial presence in comparison to many of other African states – in fact, the only time the country was properly absorbed by another colonial nation was by Italy, during the period leading to the Second World War and terminating approximately with the closure of the conflict. Considering this, the hierarchical power in Ethiopia was always intertwined with tribal dynamics, and as such, these local power centres have always been at the spotlight of inner struggles during the development of the nation.
In a geographical sense, Ethiopia only came to be similar as to how its known today through multiple conquests carried out by one of their most impactful leaders, Emperor Menelik II (Adejumobi, 2007). This influential statesman is highly regarded in Ethiopian society and elevated almost to the level of sainthood, considering the typical national celebrations that take place as a remembrance of his role. His major accomplishments are still visible today in terms of Ethiopian territorial sovereignty over specific places, and his pushback against the Italian forces in 1896 also characterize a cherished moment in the local culture (Adejumobi, 2007). After his rule, the next most notable (in a contemporary lens) statesman was Emperor Haile Selassie who navigated through the Italian endeavour in Africa’s horn and who, before this period, established the country’s first Constitution (Adejumobi, 2007).
Moving forward, after all the repercussions directly related to the changes in the status quo during the ante and post periods of the Second World War, the communist ideals that were spreading around as a consequence of the relevant changes in the balance of power in the international system also started to reach many African nations. This was the case with Ethiopia too – the country was caught in the middle of the great bipolar duel for influence and, as a result, had a sort of communist uprising which led to the establishment of a one-party Marxist-Leninist regime (Abbink, 2015). The next years were troubled, and the powers in the central authority were constantly changing due to local dynamics. Moreover, during this period, there were already very serious human rights violations brought by the authoritarian and repressive rule of the government, which in turn, fragmented Ethiopia’s societal tissue and cultivated the rise of anti-establishment movements. One of the repercussions of this type of governance was the rise of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as an established political group with a highly developed armed wing (Young, 2006).
As illustrated, the balance of power in Ethiopia’s domestic affairs had always been characterized by the influence of tribal dynamics. Within this context, the people of the Tigray region had always been highly relevant stakeholders – nonetheless, during the last decades, they had been feeling less represented by the government. This alienation, coupled with their discontent with the repression, famines, and overall poverty, led to the establishment of the TPLF (Young, 2006). The group started small with only a couple of university students and with an eye towards communist ideology, focusing on matters of self-determination (as it was common in the continent, considering the colonial history) (Berhe, 2009). However, the small group was very determined, and started to make some connections with other more established and organized movements which concentrated on Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia (Berhe, 2009). Using the military knowledge of Eritrea’s movements as assets, the TPLF started to grow steadily and to increase their presence, both geographically and in terms of numbers, and to create an informal networking web around the Tigray region. The TPLF aligned themselves with a similar group in terms of their position regarding politics in Ethiopia and founded Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and, using the communist fallout on the last decade of the 20th century as leverage, started a domestic incursion which led to the overthrow of the government (Berhe, 2009). The EPRDF then established a multi-party system and enacted an internal political division in terms of regional authority based on ethnic dynamics. During their leadership, the country went through many changes and inner conflicts due to ideological differences and tribal disputes for power, worsened material conditions such as droughts, and due to sporadic government crackdowns on opposition. Nevertheless, the TPLF loyalists managed to stay mostly in power during the first decades of the newly established regime.
Moving forward, more contemporarily, between 2018 and 2019, the other ethnical political factions who constituted the central government coalesced to bring Abiy Ahmed as the new Prime-Minister for the country, and the first one of Oromo ethnicity (the largest ethnical group in Ethiopia) (Ylönen, 2021). This movement was contrary to the wishes of the TPLF who started to progressively segregate themselves from the central authorities due to their divergencies, a dynamic which ultimately culminated in the start of a conflict, opposing the Tigray forces and the Abiy-led government. In this context, in the end of 2020, many local skirmishes arouse which led to the killing of several civilians and the displacement of thousands (Ylönen, 2021). Moreover, the typical government services have been shutdown on the Tigray region, and access to humanitarian aid has been blocked. Since the start of the conflict, there have been widespread small-scale disputes between the Ethiopian government aided by Eritrean forces and the TPLF insurgents, resulting in many changes of control in the context of local sovereignty over specific locations. Nowadays, the TPLF controls much of the Tigray region, and the Abiy government has imposed a unilateral ceasefire, coupled with their retreat from the region, which is not actually recognized by the TPLF who consider this move only rhetorical in substance (Taylor and O’Grady, 2021). The current scenario does not permit the imagination of great possibilities for future resolutions. It appears that there is no easy way out of the continuous confrontations, considering the TPLF’s motivations in continuing their incursion and establishing their rule over the Tigray region, and the position of the Ethiopian government of not allowing them to do so.
Within this context, the prospects for international agency on the region are scarce. Nonetheless, this paper intends to devise some strategies that could be applied as mitigating tools considering the situation on the ground. The first and most important one would be for, at least, the United States and the United Kingdom to use their diplomatic presence and history of economic assistance as leverage in negotiations with the Ethiopian government, aiming at the establishment of an effective humanitarian corridor to assist people in need (Soliman, 2020). This is one of the most direct actions that could be set in place, which do not have as a necessity the typical need for accounting for local tribal dynamics and ethnic-specific conundrums, considering that it is not an actual conflict resolution tool, but a simple tool towards easing the suffering of the civilians impacted by the current struggle (for more on the humanitarian situation, see OCHA 2021). Other states that could enter this movement, and perhaps attempt to aid the Ethiopian government in setting in place other measures meant to lessen the repercussions of the conflict, would be countries like Norway, Canada, or Sweden – states that are known by their successful application of soft-power and conflict resolution skills.
Considering the central government, the best path towards resolution would be for Abiy to begin the creation of channels for increased dialogue with the relevant stakeholders in Tigray and within the TPLF (Abbink, 2021). The idea here would be to make them active parts in the negotiations and to have them not only represented in the peace process, but also to let them have some level of ownership over the region, which should be their biggest concern in this context.
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By Mahmoud Refaat: The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
Contribution Bernardo Nascimento, The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
