In these months, Vienna has been the scene of the negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. We are, in particular, witnessing the seventh round of negotiations that, during the last week, has reached a return to a constructive dialogue between the counterparts. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action adopted in 2015, which originally included Russia, Iran, China, Germany, United Kingdom, France and United States among the participating States, aimed to set a limit to the ability of the Arab country to improve its nuclear weapons programme in order to maintain the stability and security of the Middle East. In return, Iran obtained the lifting of sanctions that had been imposed by United Nations, European Union and United States. In particular, Iran, with its participation in the deal, accepted to take steps to curb its enrichment capacity and that its stockpile was limited for specific durations.
The deal had a great success, because Iran committed itself to respect the provisions established in it and the removal of the sanctions made possible for its economy to reach an high level of growth, especially in sector concerning the export of crude oil. However, the system established by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action collapsed in 2018, when the former President of the United States Donald Trump decided to withdraw unilaterally from the deal and to impose several sanctions, around 1.000, on Iran. The sanctions in question had a dramatic effect on Iran’s economy, pushing the Arab country to infringe the above mentioned provisions concerning the development of nuclear power, reaching the 60% of uranium enrichment, an alarming percentage considering the 90% needed in order to develop a nuclear bomb.
The negotiations currently taking place in Vienna represent a zenith of a process started in 2014. The seventh round of the negotiations didn’t start in the best possible way, due to the fact that Iranian negotiators made demands going far beyond what could be accepted, raising a strong disappointment in the European counterparts. What the Iranian negotiators have requested is a total lifting of the sanctions set by the former President United States, Donald Trump and by its successor to the White House, Joe Biden; in return, Iran is ready to curb the enrichment progress made in these years and renter in the limit established by the deal. In this respect, Washington has stated that United States will not give up on the sanctions concerning terrorism and human rights, leaving the possibility of abolishment of the sanctions related to the economic field.
The negotiation process came to a standstill last week due to the request presented by the Iranian negotiators that were a step back compared to what was establish during the sixth round of negotiation in June. For this reason, the European counterparts were disappointed by the Iranian behaviour and were ready to leave the negotiations if the Iran’s requests would not be revised.
This impasse had almost interrupted all the process, and, only trough the mediation of Russia, in a lesser extent of China, it has been possible to overcome it and to give new impetus to the negotiations. Russia has convinced Iranian counterpart to review its request in order to re-open the dialogue between the sides, because is not useful for Iran to stop the negotiations.
What we have witnessed during this week is a constructive dialogue between the different States included in the deal. Iranian negotiators are more available to revise their request and the European counterparts are open for a dialogue concerning the lifting of the United States’ sanctions. The successful result of the negotiations has brought to the creation of a Joint Commission that has discussed in productive way about the drafting of a document that will be the ground for further works concerning the deal. After this successful week, the sides are close to reaching a new joint draft, including elements from text obtained by the end of the negotiations in June and a new proposal, in the form of two documents, presented by the administration of the President Ebrahim Raisi. It is expected for the January an eighth round in Vienna in order to find an agreement on the definitive document that could revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
During the same days the negotiations are held, Israel is moving harsh criticism concerning the fact that Iran continues the development of its enrichment program. The Americans have affirmed that they intend to wait until the end of the negotiations before deciding which their next move will be, but they have no fear to say that if the diplomatic process is not successful, they are ready to consider other options. The risk is high, if the negotiations will not provide a new deal between the parties. Israel is prepared to start air strikes against Iranian nuclear sites and the Americans could impose other sanctions or provide logistic support to their ally in Middle East. The road to achieve a definitive deal between the parties is paved with difficulties; probably the eighth round of negotiations will not be enough to reach an agreement.
References:
Iran walks back all prior concessions in nuclear talks, US official says, available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/iran-concessions-nuclear-talks-us-official
Talks with Iran on restoring 2015 nuclear deal suspended, available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/talks-with-iran-on-restoring-2015-nuclear-deal-suspended
Understanding the Iran deal: What, why and the next steps, available at https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2019/5/8/understanding-the-iran-deal-what-why-and-the-next-steps
Iran nuclear talks pulled back from brink as Tehran shifts stance, available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/iran-nuclear-deal-pulled-back-from-brink-of-collapse-as-talks-resume-in-vienna
Biden officials warn of turning to ‘other options’ if diplomacy fails as nuclear talks resume in Vienna available at
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/politics/us-iran-sanctions-tighten/index.html
Iran nuclear talks to resume ‘soon’ after modest gains in Vienna available at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/17/iran-nuclear-talks-to-resume-soon-after-modest-gains-in-vienna
Israel warns diplomacy proving fruitless in Iran nuclear talks, available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/14/israel-warns-diplomacy-proving-fruitless-in-iran-nuclear-talks
US reluctance to lift sanctions main hurdle to reviving 2015 pact, Iran official says, available at https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/06/middleeast/iran-vienna-talks-sanctions-intl/index.html
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
