According to data collected and published by UNHCR, over the past decade, extreme climate-related events triggered an average of 21.5 million new displacements per year, more than twice as many refugees caused by conflicts. By 2050, this could reach 1.2 billion people fleeing from their houses because of devastating climate change. Considering that science has proved the effects of the current environmental collapse, defining it also as a global threat of mass extinction, and considering that international organs, such as the UN, discuss daily the consequences of natural disasters in all regions of the world and its consequences, it is not clear why it this topic remains on the periphery of national agenda. In particular, climate refugees, although often discussed by the media, are still forgotten by major powers and from legal frameworks.
It is scientifically proven that climate change increases the vulnerability of already fragile situations, and because of extreme weather, it can lead to loss of income and livelihoods, food insecurity, water and soil pollution, and resource competition. This catastrophic cycle would usually end up in migration, mostly from rural areas to urban ones, but it is also increasing the number of transboundary climate migrations. However, the problem of internal migration is the risk that competition for land, an increased level of poverty, and lack of economic opportunities due to the high number of people who migrated in already unstable situations might degenerate into conflict. In Syria, for example, prolonged drought contributed to the agricultural collapse of the North of the country, and a consequential large-scale migration, of around 1.5 million people, in the urban areas, increasing the existing grievance and fuelling a civil war.
Sea-level rise is another major threat that we’ll see consequences for the next couple of decades. The World Economic Forum reported that over the last 30 years, the number of people living in coastal areas at risk has risen from 160 million to 260 million: Bangladesh, for example, will suffer 17% of its country being submerged because of the rise of sea level by 2050, leading 20 million people to flee from their home.
It is also important to consider that most of the countries of the Global South that are hosting refugees from conflict situations, are exposed to major climate change consequences. Bangladesh, is currently hosting almost 1 billion refugees from Myanmar, which are now exposed to frequent and intense cyclones and flooding. The UNHCR has reported that 700 million people fleeing from the conflict in Sudan have crossed the borders of Chad and yet is one of the countries most exposed to climate change. Jordan is also hosting Syrian, Iraqi, and Palestinian refugees, while being considered as an absolute water scarcity country.
So what is the Global North doing for them? The core principle of the 1951 Convention on Refugees asserts that “a refugee should not be returned to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom”. However, despite media, advocacy groups, and scientific research referring to climate migrants as refugees, they are not legally considered as such. According to the convention, climate change and environmental degradation are not considered as persecuting agents: as such, climate migrants are not entitled to asylum, resettlement, or protection, and they are considered as economic migrants. There is indeed no binding international agreement for climate-induced displacement, so hosting countries can refuse to accept them between their borders.
There is also a lack of climate justice, meaning countries of the Global North taking responsibility for their global emissions that are disproportionally affecting the world, in particular the Global South. Rich countries, which are the major contributors to climate change, still refuse to take legal action to protect climate migrants.
In conclusion, to address these legal gaps it is fundamental to expand the definition of refugees, so that climate migrants are legally recognized and entitled to support, but also it is important to create a new legal international framework that binds country members to accept those refugees but also to act in their behalf to contrast those hazards events. Until global leaders acknowledge climate-induced displacement as a legal and humanitarian crisis, millions will continue to be left without protection.
Resources:
- UNHCR (2024) UNHCR report reveals climate change is a growing threat to people already fleeing war, available at: UNHCR report reveals climate change is a growing threat to people already fleeing war
- World Economic Forum (2021) Climate refugees – the world’s forgotten victims, available at: Climate refugees – the world’s forgotten victims | World Economic Forum
By The European Institute for International Relations
