After Nord stream 1, the project of Nord stream 2 doubling the gas provision from Russia to Germany came to life. This gas pipeline of one thousand two hundred and thirty kilometers scares the US, which see the expansion of power of the first gas provider to Europe as a threat. The project led by Gazeprom, a russian company with a majority of shares held by the russian governement is increasing its empire over Europe and Turkey, with a market share of thirty five percent. Other projects are considered to link russia with Turkey and Greece as well.
Can Russia be a reliable gas provider?
Europe is facing since more than a year an energy crisis, with gas prices going until five time the normal price, and now stabilised to three time higher than the price one year ago. Despite a common belief, Russia is not the cause or at least the only cause to it. One must add to it the decline of production of energy in Europe, the increase of energy demand from Asia, the decrease of the reserve during the last winter and a lower provision by sustainable energy. Nonetheless, Russia does not hesitate to take advantage and exploit the situation. Russia uses gas as leverage, for example they try to negotiate the price of gas against the trade agreement between Molodava and the EU. Moreover, Russia refused to increase deliveries of gas to Europe beyond what their contract provided. Therefore, even if Russia never stooped to supply Europe with gas, it however does not fit its role of commercial partner and use gas as a geopolitical weapon. The fears of the US are in a way verified, since Europe does depend on Russia for gas, and even if the US do provide occasionally Europe, it cannot be a lasting solution.
Besides, those unfair practices have been used to launch an investigation by the EU for violation of European anti-monopoly rules by Gazprom. By playing with its gas power, and limiting the supply when the demand increased, Russia might have gone to far with the european resilience.
The pipeline in danger due to the US-Russia crossfire
Despite the fact that the pipeline is ready to be used according to Gazeprom, its opening has been delayed first because according to german law, Gazeprom needed a german branch. Now it is up to the german judiciary to decide if all the conditions are reunited to open the pipeline, however they already announced that this decision will not be taken before July 2022. Moreover, it will need also the approval by the European Commission. Even if the new german chancellor already stated that the Nord Stream 2 project was a private one, so the german government cannot and will not interfere with the case, it is logical to straigh ahead think that this late decision is due to the increased tension at the ukrainian borders. Indeed, recently Russia increased its numbers of soldiers at the borders, and justified it by NATO’s presence in the influence zone. Russia is thus requiring to de-escalate the conflict, a treaty prohibting the territorial expansion of NATO. Contradictory to his statement, the german chancellor already warned Russia that in case of military escalation in Ukraine, the project will be stopped. It has to be said also, that the germano-russian relationships are on edge since the condemnation for life by german tribunals of a russian who killed in Berlin a chechen opponent, which has been followed by the expulsion of two russian diplomats from Germany.
Furthermore, this project, which has be brought by the former german chancellor, is now hard for the new chancellor to strive for it. Even inside the german governement, dissension has been heard. The green party firmly rejects the project since they believe that the pipeline does not comply with EU law and raised security questions.
Besides, an external actor to the project is adding tension to it. Indeed, since the origin of Nord stream 2 the former US president already passed sanctions against anyone involved in the project, which at the time already offuscated the EU. Indeed, it was about extra-territorial sanctions, so no US companies were/are involved, only US interests. Under the new US president, a bill foreseeing sanctions for any person involved in the project has been rejected, but a new bill’s project planing sanctions directly against the russian president in case of invasion of Ukraine is currently discussed. Then, EU stands in the middle of a cross fire of a conflict, which does not concern the pipeline. So the question is: can US sanctions really prevent Ukraine’s invasion? But also more pragmatically, shall the US-Russia conflict touch upon the Nord Stream 2 project? The intial position of the german chancellor shall be the one to follow, leave the authoritative institutions decide on the administrative matter, since originally the project is only about trade and not geopolitic. At the moment, Europe cannot afford to step inside the conflict, since it has no viable solution to find gas or be provided by another effective energy. Or maybe the french position is the one to follow, since it considers that easing the sanction and invitating Russia to the international conferences and meeting would help Russia to be open to the discussion.
Bibliography
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By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
