This article analyses the strategic consequences of the participation of Iran in the Ukraine war in allegiance with Russia and the opportunities and challenges this alliance brings to the balance of power in the Middle East and its various geo-political actors as well as the consequences of the latest drone strike done by Israel on Iran.
The Russian-Iranian alliance only seems to be getting more intense and Russia has since the drone strike on the Iranian military industrial facility condemned Israel and deemed the attack a provocative action that could trigger an escalation in the region, with the US later confirming in a public press session that Israel was the author of the drone attack.
Iran subsequently summoned Ukraine charge d´affaires in Tehran over the country´s comments on the drone attack on the military factory in Iran’s central province of Isfahan, according to the semi-official Tasnim and in response Ukraine´s senior aide to the President Zelensky linked the incident directly to Iran’s participation in the conflict.
This shows clearly how much the Ukrainian war is influencing the dynamics in the Middle East.
This has recently been further proven with the new found evidence in form of more than 80 downed Iran made drones found in multiple war-site locations in Ukraine confirming what was already known by US intelligence- a deep cooperation on the military technological level and armament transfers between Iran and Russia.
This new relation will have direct implications on the balance of power in the Middle East since Russia will provide support to Iran in exchange of Iran´s cooperation in the war in Ukraine and in the event of an open war between Israel and Iran, Russia will inevitably be forced to participate in some form.
This is something Iran´s elite see´s for the most part as a advantage since Russia has strong intelligence and military capabilities that could prove to be central in giving a tactical advantage to Iran in a confrontation with Israel, with the Israeli government also accompanying the development of the relationship between both countries with a justified strategic focus and worried attention.
It should however be taken into account that although Russia and Iran have had multiple partnerships throughout the last decades in military and also energy related projects, with both states having recently decided to create a new common digital cryptocurrency backed by gold and linked both their banking systems, their relationship has been tinged by distrust and strategic tension over different visions for the Middle East.
Additionally, multiple strategic analysts and high-ranking elite officers of the Iranian regime’s elite have expressed the legitimate strategic concern that Iran´s cooperation with Russia in the Ukrainian conflict might not pay off and might additionally isolate even more Iran than already is, ultimately dragging Iran to a war where it will spend more resources than it can and gain little benefit.
In spite of these comments made by some strategic analyst the Iranian leadership has decide to continue to support Russia and has advanced with multiple energy projects that will be done by both countries with the objective of further connecting both economies and developing military projects together.
Simultaneously one must bring into the equation also the nuclear deal that has hanged in balance despite the fact that it could play a critical role in avoiding further escalation of tensions in the region, the Biden presidency has decided to revive the 2015 deal although the negotiations have been disrupted abruptly by the conflict created by the Ukrainian war and the Russian invasion.
The drone strike has only added more tension making it even more hard for the possibility to reach a peaceful agreement at least similar to the treaty with Iran coming into fruition.
Additionally, if Israel was indeed behind the strike, it creates a new strategic headache for Tehran, since until recently it had benefited from the gap between Israel, which has opposed the deal for the obvious strategic reason that Iran wouldn’t simply put a stop to its nuclear weapons developments and that it has shown multiple times to be breaching the terms of the deal in the past.
On the other side of the coin the US under Biden has sought to bring stability to the Middle East by reviving the Iran nuclear deal with the aim of focusing its resources in deterring the growth of Chinese influence in the pacific and support the Ukrainian war against Russia.
Additionally Israel refusal to assist Ukraine directly in its war with Russia has also complicated the situation since Israel is looking to not further its tensions with Russia which in turn could backfire if it participates in the Ukrainian conflict.
This could result in Russia penalizing Israel as a response by providing Iran additional help in the Middle East with intelligence and also given the fact that Russia has also power and control over the airspace of Syria and provides air defence systems for the Bashar regime.
Up until recently although tense the relationship between Israel and Russia in the Middle East was a relatively stable one with Russia categorically ignoring Israel´s ongoing low-intensity aerial warfare strike on Bashar Al Assad´s military.
However with Iran providing open military support to Russia in Ukraine in the form of drones and the Fatah missiles has ultimately also altered this dynamic with both the US and Israel having now the strategic goal of thwarting Tehran´s ability to help Russia.
Therefore, one must also understand the strategic planning and the considerations that Israel took into account when it decided to advance with such an attack since through it would successfully strike Iran, give strategic indirect help to Ukraine and through it also to the US in its confrontation with Russia and simultaneously avoid a direct confrontation with Russia that could put at risk its position in regards to Syria.
In terms of the of the perspective of the states of Western Europe, this has proven to be on the strategic level rather more politically inconvenient given the fact that it was European western states and the EU which were mediating most of the conversations for the reinstitution of the nuclear 2015 Iran disarmament deal between Iran and the US with the talks almost ending in success in Vienna in last year in September.
In addition to this, the assassination of multiple anti-regime protestors and the suppression of anti-regime demonstrators in Iran by the regime also accelerated a situation where today Europe as broke almost all its established links with Iran and stop insisting on a new deal, expressing instead support for the protesters against the regime. Ultimately the Iranian government only escalated the already existing antagonism of Europe towards Iran with its arms transfer to Russia.
Under this scenario, even though from the political point of view in terms of goals the current state of the relation with Iran proves from the European perspective rather inconvenient since it aborts any possibility of a successful nuclear deal being established, most of Europe inevitably will be forced to side with the US and consequently also at least in an indirect way with Israel in the inevitable confrontation between Israel and Iran.
It is thus the support that Iran has given to Russia that has mainly altered the perspective of Western European powers towards Iran, with the majority of European states and the EU seeing this officially as a direct attack on them and their security and with the EU having passed recently new sanctions on the Iranian regime.
It also additionally designated the IRGC as a terrorist entity, with MP members of the EU parliament calling for an expansion of restrictive measures against Iran as it continues to provide armament to Russian forces in Ukraine.
Iran has tried to moderate the escalation of diplomatic hostility by the EU and Europe but its attempts have failed, with the most likely outcome being that European states will move more sanctions on Iran in the coming months, with public opinion in Europe seeing Iran in an increasingly negative light which will only pressure European governments to further escalate the pressure the Iranian regime with sanctions.
The Russian invasion has thus created a wave of paradigm shift decisions that has greatly influenced the balance of powers in Middle East, with its effects going beyond the level of subregional geo-political confrontations, strengthening strategic alliances.
Besides making Europe more antagonistic towards Iran and inevitably side more with the US and Israel, the new changes in the balance of power have additionally bolstered the Jerusalem-Baku partnership and opened a new front in the Caucasus for the future war between Israel and Iran.
In recent years this alliance has become a full-fledged military-strategic cooperative relationship, with Azerbaijan emerging as Israel´s main energy supplier and source of intelligence about Iran and an important military economic partner of Israel, having made a series of new acquisitions of Israeli made weapons that it has previously used in its conflict with Armenia.
Iran will attempt to actively create unbalance within Azerbaijan through propaganda towards Azerbaijan minorities and will use its Azeri Iranian minorities to try to achieve this while its forces at the same time will prepare to in to eventually launch intelligence and military strikes against the Azerbaijani state.
It will seek to cause the maximum damage it can in the coming months and years to Azerbaijan in order to make it a regional example of what happens to those who ally with Israel.
This however will only create more problems for Iran in the long term, since it will open a new front of war, and it must also be taken into account that Azerbaijan sees its alliance with Israel not as a cause of its problems but rather as a strategic benefit and it will not give up such a relationship nor concede to Iran’s pressures.
Any attack by Iran will thus only further deepen its relation with the Jewish state.
On the flipside, Israel today is in a more complicated situation in regards to Syria where Russia had reached a balance of interests between Israel and Iran and had up until recently managed to contain Iran proxy forces in Syria from further advancing towards Israel while also giving the IDF relative freedom to launch its low-intensity warfare tactics against Hezbollah and Iran backed militias, this was done in exchange for Israel not interfering in Russia’s geo-political interests in the region.
The large losses that Russia has suffered in the war have made the Russian government decide to focus more resources in Ukraine and get a substantial number of forces that were deployed in Syria to Ukraine leaving as a result a vacuum of power that has been and will be occupied by Iran.
This change, that has happened at the same time Iran has given military support in the form of armament to Russia in Ukraine, clearly demonstrates that the Russian leadership has decidedly changed its strategic planning in the Middle East, departing form the balance of interests approach and transitioning to a direct military strategic allegiance with Iran.
Although this allows Iran to be one step closer to its strategic goal of encircling Israel with its forces and one day launching an attack from all sides that will make Israel incapable of effectively defending itself, thus launching a series of new challenges to Israel. it also gives the Israeli forces more freedom of action to react.
Consequently, Israel will take advantage of this new freedom of action to its full potential.
These new changes in the region will only give room to more tension and increasing intensity of confrontation between the US and Israel, its Sunni allies and to a lesser degree Europe on one side and Russia and Iran and its proxies in the region with the certainty that these new developments although offering strategic opportunities to both Iran and Israel end up complicating the security situation of both countries, adding more challenges than benefits.
United States will for now try to avoid a full-fledged conflict since it is not in its interest either with its prolonged conflict in Ukraine which has already consumed billions in money and resources, however, a war will become inevitable and the region will be swept by more instability if the current changes get more extreme which seems to be the inevitable scenario.
It remains however to be seen how Russia will provide help to Iran and if Israel can effectively draw a new red line with the Russian Federation and a new consensus so that Iran does not gain further more power.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
