This month marks Seven months since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian Forces. While Internet outrage and heated discussions on Club House have died down, war is still a reality for the people of Ukraine. With more than 50,000 killed, there is no end in sight to the Russian-Ukraine War. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and expected the Ukrainian Forces to accept defeat soon into the armed conflict. However, Ukraine has shown unparalleled resilience in fighting the war against Russia. Russian and much of the world underestimated Ukraine’s willingness to fight and to sustain such substantial losses to defend their territory. While the current armed conflict is a continuation of the Russian Occupation of Crimea in 2014, the international community took interest when Russian forces invaded Ukraine, attempting to take the capital city of Kyiv. The West was quick to impose economic sanctions on Russia, including NATO, with the United States and European Union taking the lead. However, these economic sanctions haven’t deterred Kremlin. Interestingly, the effects of the war have crossed national boundaries causing millions of euros and dollars’ worth of loss to the global economy. While the EU took the initiative to freeze Russian Investment in Europe, the Union is heavily dependent on Russia for gas, with Russia being the largest supplier of gas in Europe. While the Biden government has promised to increase natural gas export to Europe, Putin’s warning to switch gas sales made to “unfriendly” countries to Roubles had indeed alarmed the international community. While a possible solution or ceasefire is nowhere in sight, the international legal community has armoured itself to deliver justice to the people of Ukraine through law when diplomacy has failed.
Ukraine approached the International Court of Justice in late February 2022 to challenge Russia’s justification of invasion claiming genocide in Donbas by Ukraine. On March 16th, its primary report rejected Russia’s claims and concluded that Russia must immediately cease its military offensive in Ukraine. Although this is not a final decision, it is a promising first step for Ukraine, which had been fighting tooth and nail to bring Russia’s atrocities into the light. Russia has chosen to ignore the court’s ruling and continue its illegal occupation and invasion of Ukraine. The ICJ statutes call for enforcement of the decision through the UN Security Council, but Russia being a permanent member, poses a significant barrier to what international law can do. This situation makes us revaluate if international law is competent enough or is it a mechanism that Western nations can enforce their will on ‘developing nations.
On March 23, the ICJ issued an order laying down a timeline for the next rounds of the full case: Ukraine has until Sept. 23 to submit its pleading, and Russia has until March 23, 2023, for its counterarguments. While the war has crossed over its Seven-month mark, the ICJ would only be deciding its jurisdiction in 2023. It is estimated that many more casualties, loss of resources and environmental damage is set to occur in the next Seven months. While the preliminary orders were indeed favourable to Ukraine, Russia’s ignorance made the order futile. It is also uncertain whether Russia will choose to participate in future proceedings. So, what is the future of the Ukraine-Russian War?
The war has triggered the worst refugee crisis and environmental crisis that Europe has seen in recent times. An estimated 3.8 million people have already fled to neighbouring countries. Ukraine has also bought action against Russia for the environmental damage caused in the aftermath of the war, with President Zelenskky warning about a nuclear disaster at the end. Is winning the war the only war out for Ukraine? It looks like it. Being a much smaller nation than Russia in terms of geography, population and military strength, Ukraine has relied on the West coalition for support. A cessation of the current armed conflict may not be enough for Ukraine to guarantee its citizens’ security. Ukrainian has realized that written promises from the Russians or international obligations to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are worthless. In 1994, Ukrainians gave up the world’s third-largest arsenal of nuclear weapons upon the promise by Russia (and the United States and Britain) in turn of a promise to respect Ukraine. In 2014 and again in 2022, the Russians invaded, ignoring their word.
The only way forward is for Ukraine is to join the league of major countries that ferociously aid and assist their allies. Ukraine inching toward membership in the European Union and NATO is a key factor in winning this war against Russia. While these democratic coalitions have supported Ukraine through Military, Financial and Political fronts, Ukraine must either join NATO or be in a position to completely defend itself (a position that Ukraine cannot attain given the circumstances) because aggression against a member of NATO is deemed aggression against all members of the NATO. Another nation interfering in the war now might invoke the ‘effective control test’ propounded in the case of Nicaragua v United States, making them a party to the armed conflict. However, it is important that negotiation efforts must be emphasized. Both Nations have a lot to lose. The UN is still trying to find a political solution to the conflict, one in which Russia has no interest in the same. Putin has been using the Zaporizhian nuclear plant crisis as leverage to force Ukraine’s surrender showing its disinterest in negotiations. Russia seems to care very little about its men as well. With no official records given out, it is estimated that around 70,000 to 80,000 men have been dead or wounded. Volunteer reserves are depleting, new recruiters are paid large sums of money and prisoners are recruited with promising remittances.
World nations must remember that protecting Ukrainians’ right to self-determination is what protects that right for all nations. On the 24th of August, Ukraine will celebrate 31 years since its declaration of independence from Soviet Rule. Wednesday will also mark 6 months since Russia’s large-scale invasion. The people of Ukraine deserve to celebrate their independence, and they are looking up to International law and diplomacy to help them. Allowing Russia to invade a sovereign democratic nation will leave dangerous precedence in International law. One which the international community must prevent at any cost
References
Timeline: The first 100 days of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Al Jazeera. Retrieved on: 22 August 22, 2022 https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/6/3/timeline-the-first-100-days-of-russias-war-in-ukraine
In defence of the rights of Ukrainian citizens. Statement of the Commissioner for Human Rights, Commissioner for Human Rights. Retrieved on August 20, 2022 https://bip.brpo.gov.pl/en/content/defense-rights-ukrainian-citizens-statement-commissioner-human-rights
Lopez J., Worthington B., What’s the Status of Ukraine’s Case Against Russia at the ICJ? 2022, April 21. Lawfare. Retrieved on August 19, 2022 https://www.lawfareblog.com/whats-status-ukraines-case-against-russia-icj
https://www.npr.org/2022/08/22/1117553636/russia-ukraine-war-a-weekly-recap-and-look-ahead-aug-22
Ukraine to Mark 6 Months Since Russian Invasion (2022, August 21) The Vox. Retrieved on: 22 August, 2022
https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-to-mark-6-months-since-russian-invasion/6710335.html
Wiseman P., McHugh D., Russia’s war at 6 months: A global economy in growing danger. (2022, August 21) AP News. Retrieved on: 22 August 2022
https://apnews.com/2f23aa3df0f2f6916ad458785dd52c59
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
