The ongoing ethnic and territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has led to tensions in the South Caucasus region. The principles of self-determination and territorial integrity are at the centre of the conflict, with Armenia supporting the self-determination of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and Azerbaijan asserting its territorial integrity. The implementation of these legal frameworks and norms has been challenging, with both sides accusing the other of violating international law. The lack of consensus on the interpretation of these legal frameworks and norms has also hindered efforts to resolve the conflict through legal means.
The current state of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains tense, with sporadic border clashes and ceasefire violations. The conflict has resulted in several military clashes, including the most recent one in 2020, which lasted for 44 days and resulted in the loss of thousands of lives. This incident created a new situation in the region, with a blockade preventing the import of goods. The blockade corridor is a crucial element of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it was initiated by Azerbaijani protestors claiming to be eco-activists in December 2022 and has prevented the transportation of essential goods, including food and medical supplies, to the region.
The conflict has had significant economic and political consequences, causing damage to infrastructure, including roads, buildings, and homes, resulting in the displacement of civilians. It has also had significant geopolitical implications, particularly in terms of regional power struggles and alliances, highlighting the influence of powers including Russia, Iran and Israel, who have all played a significant role in the conflict, and cementing collective security agreements in the region, leading to a shift in the regional dynamic. The involvement of these powers has complicated efforts to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means and affected policy-making.
Russia has traditionally been a key player in the region and has been seen as playing both sides of the conflict. While it has a significant role in brokering peace deals, Russia also has established a strategic partnership with Armenia, providing it with military and economic support. Russia’s involvement in the conflict has been driven by its regional interests and desire to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus region and prevent other powers, such as Turkey, from gaining a foothold in the area.
Iran has maintained a neutral stance on the conflict, but it has expressed concern about the potential for the conflict to spill over into its territory and destabilize the region. Turkey and Israel, on the other hand, have supported Azerbaijan throughout the conflict and have been accused of providing military aid to the country, including supplying long-range missiles and drones and providing military technology and training. These alliances and support have the potential to further escalate the conflict and widen the scope of the conflict beyond the region.
The recent peace deal brokered by Russia in 2020 has brought a temporary end to the hostilities, but the underlying issues remain unresolved. The conflict has been the subject of numerous diplomatic initiatives, including mediation by the OSCE Minsk Group, which is co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States. Even though the involvement of international organizations is crucial in finding a resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the effectiveness of these organizations in resolving the conflict has been limited by the lack of cooperation among regional powers and the inability to enforce international law and a lasting solution has yet to be reached. While international law and organizations can provide a framework for resolving the conflict, the involvement and cooperation of regional powers will be essential for any lasting solution to the conflict.
The EU has also been closely monitoring the situation, with the European Parliament calling for an end to the blockade and urging Azerbaijan to take steps towards resolving the conflict. However, these efforts have so far failed to produce a lasting resolution to the conflict. The blockade of the Lachin corridor has added another layer of complexity to the conflict, making it more difficult to find a peaceful solution. The international community has called on Azerbaijan to lift the blockade and ensure that the population in Nagorno-Karabakh has access to essential goods.
Addressing the underlying causes of the conflict and promoting peacebuilding and understanding and reconciliation between conflicting parties is important for regional stability. Further diplomatic efforts and negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are essential to reaching a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Economic incentives and sanctions can also be used to encourage both sides to come to the negotiating table and make concessions.
Potential solutions to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could include a negotiated settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Recently, Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan has expressed his willingness to sign a peace deal with Azerbaijan to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and guarantee Armenia’s security and ensure lasting peace in the region. Pashinyan’s stance on the issue has been met with opposition from some Armenians who view his willingness to sign a peace deal as a betrayal of their country’s interests, but despite internal dissatisfaction, Pashinyan has maintained that a peace deal with Azerbaijan is necessary for the long-term stability and security of the region.
The Armenian President has outlined several conditions for a potential peace deal with Azerbaijan, stating that both countries must recognize each other’s territorial integrity without ambiguity. Additionally, Pashinyan has emphasized the need for monitoring mechanisms to be put in place to prevent any breaches of the peace deal. The draft peace agreement has been finalized by Armenia and sent to Azerbaijan, as well as to the member states of the OSCE Minsk Group. Although negotiations are ongoing, the details of the peace deal have not yet been finalized.
Ultimately, a lasting solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict requires a commitment to peace and reconciliation from both Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as cooperation among larger powers, regional powers, and other stakeholders, to ensure long-term stability and peace in the region. The role of civil society and lobbying efforts cannot also be underestimated in promoting peacebuilding and reconciliation efforts and in influencing policy decisions and raising awareness about the conflict and its implications. It is important for civil society organizations and individuals to work together to promote peacebuilding and reconciliation efforts and to advocate for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
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By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
