Since nine years France is engaged in the operation Barkhane, in order to enhance stability in the region, for Mali to shape a state with democratic values and that could last. France also strived for a european invovlement since more than two years now. However, Mali military government is becoming hostile. First it decided to postpone the election originally planned in february until 2026. Moreover, it hired Wagner, a russian paramilitary group, which has been blacklisted by the EU and the UN for war crimes. Mali, is then, not taking the direction expected by the european coalition, which spent money and blood on it.
The international reaction
The Takuba task force, encompassing different EU member states’ military is fading. Indeed, the malian junta is striving for discouraging any international aid. On the twenty-fourth of January 2022 it asked the danish soldiers to leave the territory since they arrived without the provisory governement’s authorization. However, their presence is resulting from a formal invitation to all internatioanl partners made months ago. Moreover, latly the junta decided to close its aerian territory, which made more difficult for the european coalition to do their job. Besides, the russian involvement is scarring off Germany and Sweden. They fairly wonder what is the purpose of training malian soldiers if the junta required the assistance of the russian paramilitary. Furthermore, Sweden has a more sentitive files with Russia, since Russia is exercising pressure on the former to not join the NATO. Nevertheless, the main question is, does it worth the cost of all the efforts accomplished until now to then leave and let the situation in the hand of Russia?
Moreover, more locally the ECOWAS countries just decided to close their borders with Mali, implement an embargo on their exchanges, freeze their assets, suspend aids and call back their ambassadors. One could wonders if it is the most appropriate action since it will enhance commercial exchanges with non ECOWAS countries such as Algeria and Mauritania but also favorise black market. Besides, by freezing the assests, Mali will not receive investments which are important for its local development.
The situation in Mali is really tensed since it is a fair choice of ECOWAS countries and some european countries to sanction the junta’s action but at the same time it deserves the malian population and also their indirect interests, since for sure the situation will worsen and the junta will get closer to non-desired actors. A current example is Afghanistan, which was controlled by the US for twenty years in order to fight terrorism and because the situation became too costly they withdrew. Now that the world see the consequences of an unprepared withdrawal, it is sure that another option needs to be found for Mali.
Is France the last valuable option?
France, which is the former colonial power of Mali is involved since nine years in the Barkhane operation without a great success. However, the junta is criticizing France’s involvement on the wrong basis. Indeed, terrorists groups are still strong in the region, but they cannot blame France for the instability. Barkhane operation’s purpose was not to bring stability but to fight against the terrorists groups, which are preventing stability, cohesion and peace in Mali. This operation has not been design to bring peace. It has to be a choice from malian people. Nonetheless, they need more than a military operation, a political operation. Mali needs a state, a strong and democratical one that can last in time and bring stability in the country. However, a state is only the first step since the external actors to the country are still a threat, the state would need to enhance dialogue. A dialogue with the political armed group and with those qualified as terrorist. Even if France is clearly against it, it is the way to proceed in the region usually. Lastly this strong state will need to fight impunity, because a healthy state cannot govern without healing all the damages caused by the lasting situation. Once again, this process can only be achieved if the malian people are committed and desire this, France and the european coalition can only be a help and not the instigator of it.
France and more precisely president Macron really needs a success in the Mali files, three months ahead from the presidential elections and also to get some positiv outcomes from its presidency of the European council. Besides, France needs to find a plan B since it had to diminish its presence in Mali this summer due to, in part, the UN findings on the bombing of nineteen civilians during a wedding. Furthermmore, the russian involvment is trying to ternish french image which is greatly already deteriorated with fake news, such as great accomplishements against terrorist groups. The military answer was not the solution, the paramilitary one is also not.
Bibliography
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By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
