In these days we have witnessed the increasing of Russia’s military presence in the area next to the Eastern Ukraine border. Russia has built up several logistic centres hosting troops, armed vehicles, air forces and naval personnel. The Russian government justifies its presence at the border saying that it is part of the military exercise they are currently conducting; in the meanwhile, Ukrainian Ministry of Defence is concerned about the current situation, with particular regard to the fact that there are around 120.000 militaries, equipped with armed vehicles, tanks and “Iskander missiles”, stationing at the border. Furthermore, the correspondent airspace, as well as the areas of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, are constantly overflown by Russian aircrafts.
At the moment, it represents a tricky situation because the American Intelligence declares that the Russian forces have the capabilities to carry out a swift and immediate invasion, including erecting supply lines such as medical units and fuel that could sustain a drawn-out conflict. For this reason, the Western allies of Ukraine involved in the current situation – namely EU, US and NATO – are trying to promote a diplomatic settle of the conflict in order to avoid a catastrophic situation such as the one occurred in 2014, the year of the Crimea annexation to the Russian Federation.
The events occurred between February and March 2014 are fundamental for a better understanding of the reason leading Russian moves in current days. The internal crisis in Ukraine began in November 2013, following the decision of the then Ukrainian President Yanukovych not to sign an association agreement with the EU, because of his link with the Russian Federation, which did not agree with the development of close political and economic cooperation between EU and Ukraine. In particular, Russia was worried about the possibility that this agreement would lead Ukraine to be a future member of NATO. The decision of the then President, however, triggered several protests involving the supporters of EU agreement and the “Right sector” or the “Svoboda” party, politically close to the Russian Federation.
The manifestations became quickly violent, with hundreds of injured and killed, driving the country in a serious internal crisis. Immediately after the decision of the Ukraine’s Parliament to remove Yanukovych, pro-Russian troops took control of Crimea and started the process of secession from Ukraine, in order to make it join Russian Federation. In March 2014, Russia sent troops in Crimea to force Ukrainian military units to leave the territory and to give pro-Russian troops the chance to become independent from Ukraine.
After the proclamation of its independence, the Crimean Parliament requested Russia to include Crimea in its Federation, offering thereby the Russians the possibility to control the Black Sea, strategically crucial for the latter. Following these events, EU and US approved economic sanctions focusing on the energy exports of Russian main companies, and, on the other side, NATO increased its presence in Ukraine, adopting several projects in many sectors to improve the capabilities of the country.
The close relationship between NATO and Ukraine, which has developed during these years, is precisely the principal element at the core of recent steps undertaken by the president Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin’s main concern is related to the possibility that Ukraine may decide to join NATO and become a EU Member State. Russia wants to avoid that the remaining non-NATO and non-EU States decide to align themselves to the Western organizations. President Putin, during its meeting with the President of the United States Joe Biden, has declared that the strategic decision to place all his forces next the Ukrainian border is just to ensure their security from NATO’s further expansion to East and its deployment of forces in the Russia’s neighbouring States.
Actually, what Kremlin would like to obtain through this demonstration of power is a legal agreement that would avoid NATO’s eastwards expansion to Russian former back yard. On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zalens’kyj claims the assistance of the Western allies to face the threaten of a potential conflict, stressing that the Kremlin has not the authority to impose the stop of the NATO-Ukraine close relationship. It is, indeed, crucial now for Ukrainian government to maintain it for the sake of country’s stability, challenged by a struggling economic and multiple political and social difficulties. All the diplomatic efforts made by the Western allies of Ukraine aim to convince Moscow to de-escalate the situation, which would bring extremely negative consequences to Russian economy in the form of economic sanctions. The European Union has just prolonged the restrictive measures against Russia, imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, approximately to all 2022.
On 11 October 2021, the Council decided to implement the restrictive measures on an additional 8 individuals for actively supporting the policies and actions taken by the Russian authorities to undermine and threaten the integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.
Also the United States have imposed serious economic sanctions against Russian persons – individual, entities, vessels –, which encompass among others blocking of assets subject to U.S. jurisdiction, limits on access to the US financial system, including limiting or prohibiting transactions involving U.S. individuals and businesses, and denial of entry into the United States.
In light of that, the moves of Moscow seem to aim to draw the attention of the West concerning its demands, primarily the legal guarantees that the Ukraine will not have the change to join NATO.
A direct attack of the Russian forces to Ukraine is extremely improbable due to the fact that, in which case, EU and US would immediately stop buying Russia’s hydrocarbons and fertilisers and will give up on Nord Stream 2, a new gas pipeline passing through the Black Sea and connecting Russia to Germany. Another relevant reason why it would not be convenient for Russia to invade Ukraine consists in the process of their military might’s reinforcement that the latter is carrying out with the support of the Western allies and through the implementation of NATO projects.
It seems clear that the steps put in place by Putin are having the opposite effect than the one he would have wished, as the Western allies of Ukraine, in view of the recent events, have reaffirmed their total support to the latter, prompting Russia to proceed by diplomatic channels to de-escalate tensions and to seek durable solutions related to their security issues; otherwise it will meet significant consequences.
Relations with Ukraine, available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_37750.htm
Overview of United States sanctions on Russian persons (individuals, entities, and vessels), available at: https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/russia-sanctions
EU restrictive measures in response to the crisis in Ukraine, available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/ukraine-crisis/
How real is the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine? available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/3/how-real-is-the-threat-of-a-russian-invasion-of-ukraine
Ukrainian military report says Russia boosted troops to 120,000 near border, available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/08/europe/ukraine-russia-boosts-troops-intl/index.html
Christian Marxsen, The Crimea Crisis from an International Law Perspective, Kyiv-Mohyla Law and Politics Journal 2 (2016), 13–36
US intelligence estimates Russian troop levels on Ukraine border could reach 175,000, available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/04/politics/russia-ukraine-troops-border-us-intelligence-reports/index.html
Putin tells British PM, Russia wants talks to curb NATO expansion, available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/13/putin-tells-british-pm-moscow-wants-talks-to-curb-nato-expansion
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
