On Sunday, Tunisian President, Kais Saied, removed the Prime Minister, Hichem Mechichi, from office and announced he would assume executive authority with the assistance of a new prime minister, then suspended parliament for 30 days with the help of the army. Subsequently he has deposed various ministers including the defense and acting justice minister.
Saied has defended the decision, arguing that the 2014 constitution allows him to suspend parliament if it is in “imminent danger” under article 80, and those questioning the legitimacy of his actions should “revise your constitutional lessons” (Saleh, 2021 para 4; Reuters 2021 para 1). Yet, academics have argued that the constitution does “not allow him to do what he’s doing and certainly not the ways doing it” which has been dubbed a mere “improvisation” (Najjar and Ibrahim, 2021, para 22). Moreover, others have labelled such a move both “antidemocratic” and “extra-legal” (Yerkes, 2021, para 3).
In a recent statement to social media and in a bid to avoid further congestion, Mechichi asserted that he does not wish to be a disruptive element and will hand over responsibility (Amara and Oatis, 2021). However, former President Moncef Marzouki has condemned Saied’s actions, stating there is no doubt that such a move constitutes a coup (Najjar and Ibrahim, 2021, para 28). Yet, ultimately, it has been pointed out that the constitutional legitimacy of these actions will likely remain uncertain due to the absence of a constitutional court to determine such issues (Todman, 2021).
Saied’s actions come after thousands recently took to the streets to protest the government over their handling of the pandemic, systemic corruption and the continued deterioration of the economy. Many have become disillusioned with the state of Tunisian democracy due to, inter alia, the prolonged period of political deadlock between Saied and Mechichi, which have prevented needed reforms. Additionally, the country has been experiencing especially high rates of unemployment, at around 16.7% (World Bank, 2021) and one of the worst Covid death rates across the whole of Africa, with fears of an entire healthcare system collapse (Amnesty, 2021a).
Academics have previously highlighted the potential for unaddressed economic grievances to re-escalate into mass protest (Grewal, 2021). Yet, interestingly, it has also been suggested that addressing economic reforms has been made more challenging due to the existence of a strong Tunisian civil society which, paradoxically, is likely what contributed to the survival of Tunisian democracy during its early years of transition (Grewal, 2021). Indeed, economic stagnation has been attributed by some to government policies which aimed to please both labour and business sectors rather than risking sweeping economic reforms (Ibid, 2021) and has been proposed as a factor in why Tunisia has not consolidated as a democracy.
Growing Concerns
The Tunisian public’s reactions to these recent events have been varied. Whilst many protesters have celebrated Saied’s decision, there have been strong clashes with opposing groups. Indeed, on the other side, protesters have offered similar sentiments to one individual who recently lamented, “These fools are celebrating the birth of a new dictator” (BBC News, 2021, para 12). Saied has warned against any violent opposition that may consequently arise, threatening the use of bullets and on Monday he also extended covid restrictions, imposing a night curfew till August 27th and banned gatherings of three people or more in certain areas (Najjar and Ibrahim, 2021).
In what has been deemed an “attack on press freedom”, Al Jazeera’s bureau in Tunis was also raided by heavily armed Tunisian authorities late on Sunday, as staff were expelled and equipment confiscated (Amnesty 2021b; Al Jazeera, 2021, para 5). It has been suggested that such an action attempts to stifle press that may be politically aligned with the Ennahda party, which represents Saied’s chief opposition (Yee, 2021) and Al Jazeera has indicated that it will impede the coverage of events in the country (Al Jazeera, 2021).
Moreover, the removal of immunity for parliament members and Saied’s decision to oversee the prosecutions of parliamentarians has also raised fears from human rights groups. Heba Morayef, Amnesty International’s Middle East and North Africa Director, stated the decision was “alarming” (Amnesty, 2021, para 13) and vocalised concerns that the “the hard-won freedoms and human rights gains of Tunisia’s 2011 uprising are at risk” (Ibid, para 12).
Amongst other states, the US have also responded, stating it will “continue to stand on the side of Tunisia’s democracy” and that it is “particularly troubled by reports that media offices have been closed” (Price, 2021, para 2). However, foreign states are so far yet to expressly condemn Saied’s actions.
Similarities to the 2013 Egyptian Coup
Parallels have been drawn regarding these events and those that unfolded in Egypt in 2013 whereby Egyptian President, Mohammed Morsi, was also ousted following a coup launched by defense minister, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Indeed, one member of the Ennahda party, Imed Ayadi, recently argued “Saied is a new Sisi who wants to collect all authority for himself… We will stand up to the coup against the revolution” (Beaumont, 2021, para 16). Similar to Tunisia, the move came after mass anti-government protests which ultimately set the climate for Morsi and Mechichi’s expulsion. Indeed, it has been suggested that both leaders utilised civilian discontent surrounding the lack of progress under Islamist parties’ governance after respective Arab Spring revolutions, and represented themselves as secular alternatives (Todman, 2021). Additionally, in doing so they enjoy regional support, particularly from Arab Gulf countries who “favor new, more secular governments” (Ibid, para 9)
The Future of Tunisia
The future of Tunisia is now faced with increased uncertainty and plagued with human rights concerns. Saied must now confront real challenges in addressing economic and social grievances yet doing so may have just become even trickier. The political crisis may lead to a delay in needed IMF assistance which was previously being negotiated and would have helped alleviate some economic pressures. Furthermore, Western governments may also wish to reduce their support of Tunisia, yet it has been suggested that external economic support will likely be incentivised in the context of European migration concerns. On the other hand, the EU and its member states represent Tunisia’s largest benefactors, which could be utilised as a bargaining tool to pressure Saied into relinquishing power and recreate a legitimate government and elected parliament (Yerkes, 2021).
However, the credit rating company, Fitch, has also stressed that Tunisia must retain its foreign exchange reserves and strike a deal with the IMF to avoid a sovereign credit rating downgrade (Jones 2021; Fitch, 2021). Such a downgrade would likely influence the cost of borrowing and lead to higher interest rates ultimately perpetuating Tunisia’s economic crisis.
Catherine Greenacre
References:
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By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
