An armed conflict between China and the United States would have catastrophic consequences. Not only would it cost many lives and entail incalculable risks of escalation, but it would also cause political disorder and imply high economic costs for the European Union. Out of peace policy and economic self-interest, Europe should therefore work to maintain the peaceful status quo in the Taiwan Strait. This requires, together with international partners, discouraging Beijing. The Union should signal to China that Beijing will face extremely high costs if it resorts to coercive measures against Taiwan in order to fulfill President Xi Jinping’s lifelong dream of annexing Taiwan. To this end, the EU should already make clear preparations and agreements with partners.
At present, however, Brussels is still far from having a clear position on Taiwan. Quite a few see the whole thing as a dispute between the United States and China in which Europe has no stake and should stay out of it or at best act as a mediator. Some are betting on Taiwans resignation. In the medium term, they say, it cannot be prevented anyway that the Chinese Communist Party will extend its supremacy to Taiwan. Taiwan cannot defend itself against an increasingly well-equipped Chinese military and would suffer the same fate as Hong Kong. But these are dangerous miscalculations that we should quickly put behind us. While the U.S. officially relies on “strategic ambiguity”, it would be negligent to assume that Washington would not be willing to wage war over Taiwan. Geo-strategically, Taiwan is of much greater importance to the United States than Afghanistan and Ukraine.
→ Chinas motivations
What the Chinese party-state actually want is to achieve reunification with Taiwan as the central element of the great “national rejuvenation”. In a speech in July 2021, Xi Jinping pledged his support for the “One China” principle and is determined to crush any attempt at Taiwanese independence. Xi turned down his aggressive way by stating a few month later that he wants a peaceful reunification but nevertheless, reunification will and must happen. Of course, Beijing’s clear preference is to reincorporate Taiwan without human losses. To that end, it has long relied on making Taiwan partly dependent economically, promoting political allies there and offering the “one country, two systems” method just like Hong Kong. At the same time, Beijing is trying to isolate the island more and more internationally.
But the results of this strategy are fading more and more. Time is definitely working against Beijing on a political level. Today, the number of Taiwanese in favor of reunification is small. Even more troubling for Beijing are the opinion polls : over 60% of the island’s population identifies as Taiwanese. And only 3% identify as Chinese, while back in the 90’s 25% of the population identified themselves as Chinese. Self-identification as Taiwanese is very much politically motivated; it does not imply a rejection of Chinese culture, but of the political system of the Chinese Republic. According to the polls, out of all the asked subjects only 8% support the Chinese government and it’s political system; 63% are opposed to it. The experience of repression in Hong Kong is responsible for the failure of the “one country, two systems” proposals in Taiwan.
The stronger China’s military power is getting and the clearer Taiwan’s political trajectory is getting away from China, the greater the pressure and appetite may become in Beijing to subdue Taiwan by force. In doing so, Beijing has several options, if Xi trusts his advisers telling him that the war could be won at an “acceptable cost”. It can take a gradual approach, starting, for example, with a blockade of Taiwan and betting that salami slicing tactics (the approach is bigger goals through small steps) will make it less likely that the U.S. and other supporters of Taiwan will come up with decisive countermeasures. Already, Beijing is trying psychological pressure. Using propaganda, it’s trying to make it clear to Taiwan that it stands no chance against Beijing and that Beijing would also win militarily against the United States. But these tactics tend to have the opposite effect on the Taiwanese side : it increased the drive for self-reliance and defense of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait among large segments of society.
→ The U.S. will defend Taiwan
It seems that U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan strengthened Beijing’s willingness to take Taiwan. For example, journalist Stuart Lau wrote on twitter : “Imagine Beijing watching U.S. military “commitment” in Afghanistan while contemplating its next move on Taiwan”. But this interpretation of events is going in the wrong direction. For one thing, China very well understands that the U.S. is withdrawing from Afghanistan to grow it’s available military force to ba able to face the enforced Chinese military. For another, Taiwan is on an entire other level of strategic importance to the United States compared to Afghanistan.
Taiwan is an important economic partner when it comes to semiconductor technology, in which the island is a world leader. Most importantly, Taiwan’s strategic location is critical. For example, in a December 2021 U.S. Senate hearing, Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for the Indo-Pacific in the Biden administration, states : “Taiwan is located at a critical node within the first island chain, anchoring a network of U.S. allies and partners—stretching from the Japanese archipelago down to the Philippines and into the South China Sea—that is critical to the region’s security and critical to the defense of vital U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific” and continues by reminding every one the importance of the major trade lanes passing through Taiwan are, all explaining the strategically crucial positioning in the world which should be reason enough to justify the support.
→ Europe’s role
The critical key to peace is to dissuade Beijing from using military force. Above all, this involves influencing the Chinese leadership’s cost-benefit estimations. The goal must be to convince China that Taiwan cannot be taken at an “acceptable cost”. The military part of this equation is up to Taiwan, the U.S. and regional allies. And there’s lots to do on that part. In fact, Taiwan has not invested enough in it’s military, while Beijing invested a lot and can definitely measure itself against Washingtons army. But that alone won’t convince the Chinese governments that the cost is too high. The only thing that would make them back down is if conquering Taiwan seriously jeopardizes Xi’s project of the Chinese dream.
And in this strategy of trying to discourage China, the European Union, as an important trading partner of China, plays a central role. The ambition is that Beijing should know that it won’t get off as lightly as it did after the Hong Kong takeover. The war in Ukraine showed that there’s a vast panel of options when it comes to sanctions. It would require a coordinated reaction within the EU. But it is clear that the less dependent Europe makes itself on economic ties with China, the more credibly it can make threats.
When it comes to threatening sanctions, Europe should rally with the U.S. and the allies in the region to put pressure on certain areas where it is known that China is vulnerable. For example, threatening to cut Beijing off completely from the value chains where it hasn’t reached total independence of production. But for those threats to be credible, the U.S. and Europe must build up production capacities outside of Taiwan to a much greater extent than they have in the past.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-06-03/china-taiwan-war-temptation
https://www.politico.eu/article/joseph-wu-taiwan-brussels-beijing-czech-republic-slovakia-diplomacy/
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/01/14/brussels-backs-lithuania-in-row-with-china-over-taiwan
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3848713
Opinion polls :
https://jamestown.org/program/taiwan-opinion-polling-on-unification-with-china/
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
