With only 10 weeks until the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, political experts from both parties say their expectations from just months prior are changing.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats, and 36 gubernatorial seats are up for election in November, and the fate of President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda and a potential comeback by former President Donald Trump in 2024 are riding on the outcome of these races. 1
Slim chances
Democrats currently hold a slim majority in both chambers of Congress. In the House, Republicans only need to gain 5 seats to assume control, and only one seat in the Senate, which is currently divided 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie breaking vote. 2 And just a few months ago, Republicans seemed poised to do just that.
Though not on the ballot, midterm elections are often thought of as a referendum on the President’s performance, and historically, the party in power loses House seats during the first term of a new administration. Midterm elections during President Barack Obama’s first term cost the Democrats 63 seats, and two years into Donald Trump’s presidency, Republicans lost 41 seats. 3
Moreover, with inflation at a 40-year high and President Biden’s approval ratings around 37 percent (two points lower than President Trump’s approval rating heading into the 2018 midterms),4 the major issues up for debate between the parties this spring have largely revolved around the economy, crime, and the administration’s stalled legislative agenda in Congress. The national focus on these issues, which resonate with Republicans and alienate swing voters from Democrats, further enhanced the Republican party’s prospects for taking back the House. 5
And if the record number of House Democrats retiring or seeking other office – 30 so far, the most for party since 1992 – is anything to go by, even Democrats seemed to be fearing a Republican takeover.6
Changing expectations?
However, the last few months have seen the emergence of a new dynamic among American voters – one that has political professionals from both parties “bracing for a closely contested outcome that could include an unusual divergence in results for the House and those in Senate and governor races.” 7
Dramatic events over the summer like the Uvalde, Texas massacre in May, the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade in June, the passing of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill in August, and the findings of the House committee investigating the January 6, 2021 insurrection have shifted national focus onto concerns about gun violence, abortion, climate change, and democracy. While the attention on these issues has not changed the public’s concern about the state of the economy, which remains the top voting issue, it has given Democrats “an opportunity to shift the campaign discussion from how voters feel about Biden’s performance to whether they support the direction Republicans would take the country.” 8
And it does seem as though more voters are starting to see the midterms as a crossroads, rather than a referendum on the president. According to an August survey from the Pew Research Center, the number of Americans from both parties that say Biden is not much of a factor in their vote has increased since March to almost half of all registered voters.9 Other recent polls have shown the slim advantage that Republicans have enjoyed over Democrats for much of the year tightening ever so slightly in the last month, placing Democrats in a better position than they were in when the summer began. 10
What this means for November and beyond
According to CNN senior political analyst, Ronald Brownstein, this dynamic means that “a November outcome in which Republicans add only a modest number of House seats and fail to gain ground, or even lose some, in Senate and governor’s contests, no longer seems impossible.” 11
Still, even with this shift in the national conversation and renewed mobilization from Democrats, the factors boosting the Republican party’s prospects for gaining control of the House haven’t disappeared. Consequently, while some analysts have lowered their expectations on the number of seats Republicans may gain, most remain confident that the Republican Party will capture enough House seats to take control. Although they’re unlikely to make nearly as much progress in Senate and gubernatorial races as in the House and key elections have become more competitive, the chances are certainly favorable for a Republican majority in the Senate as well given that the party only needs to net one seat.12
Even if Democrats were able to keep narrow control of the Senate, losing the House of Representatives would spell disaster for President Biden’s legislative agenda. A top priority for Congressional Republicans if they regain control will be to check what they see as an overreaching White House, virtually guaranteeing an increase in government gridlock. Given that a divided government will also mean they are unlikely to advance any of their own legislative priorities, Republicans are set to launch a slew of oversight investigations into high profile topics including the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the origins of inflation, and the business dealings of the president’s son, Hunter Biden, in hopes of knocking Democrats down ahead of 2024. 13
The outcome of the midterms could also pave the way for a comeback by Donald Trump. Since leaving the White House, the former president has hinted at plans to seek reelection in 2024 multiple times, including in his latest appearance in Washington DC at the end of July, his first return to the capitol since the insurrection.14 Despite the fact that his base remains staunchly loyal, over two-thirds of all Americans say he should not remain a major political figure according to a recent poll,15 suggesting that while he could potentially perform well in a primary against other Republican presidential hopefuls, he may once again fall short in the general election. This is a prediction that Democrats seem to be banking on as they head into the final weeks before the midterms with high hopes that Donald Trump will make a pre-November announcement.16
Multiple factors could prompt Trump to do just that including “legal pressure bearing down from the Justice Department, his declining standing in the GOP and footsteps from younger would-be rivals with far less baggage.” 17 Democrats say that such an announcement would help to further sell their framing of the midterms as a choice between two very different visions for the future of the nation, and even Republicans seem wary that it would push the GOP back into Trump’s shadow and highlight the extremism that still exists within the party.18 Importantly though, while they may fear an early announcement, that doesn’t mean the GOP won’t support a 2024 bid for the presidency by Donald Trump if Republicans – especially those endorsed by Trump – perform well in November.
Bibliography
1. Oliphant, James & Jason Lange. “Explainer: What’s at stake in the 2022 U.S. congressional elections.” Reuters, 2 May 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/whats-stake-2022-us-congressional-elections-2022-05-02/
2. Oliphant, James & Jason Lange. “Explainer: What’s at stake in the 2022 U.S. congressional elections.”
3. Brownstein, Ronald. “From a Republican ‘tsunami’ to a ‘puddle’: Why the forecast for November is changing.” CNN, 30 August 2022. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/30/politics/fault-lines-forecast-november-republicans-democrats/index.html; Oliphant, James & Jason Lange. “Explainer: What’s at stake in the 2022 U.S. congressional elections.”
4. Rugaber, Christopher. “US inflation at new 40-year high as price increases spread.”; “Abortion Rises in Importance as Voting Issue, Driven by Democrats.” Report, Pew Research Center, 23 August 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/23/abortion-rises-in-importance-as-a-voting-issue-driven-by-democrats/
5. Brownstein, Ronald. “From a Republican ‘tsunami’ to a ‘puddle’: Why the forecast for November is changing.”
6. Oliphant, James & Jason Lange. “Explainer: What’s at stake in the 2022 U.S. congressional elections.”
7. Brownstein, Ronald. “From a Republican ‘tsunami’ to a ‘puddle’: Why the forecast for November is changing.”
8. Brownstein, Ronald. “From a Republican ‘tsunami’ to a ‘puddle’: Why the forecast for November is changing.”
9. Jamerson, Joshua. “Republicans Still Favored to Win Back House Control but Outlook Tightens.” The Wall Street Journal, 28 August 2022. https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-still-favored-to-win-back-house-control-but-outlook-tightens-11661654470
10. “Abortion Rises in Importance as Voting Issue, Driven by Democrats.” Pew Research Center.
11. Brownstein, Ronald. “From a Republican ‘tsunami’ to a ‘puddle’: Why the forecast for November is changing.”
12. Jamerson, Joshua. “Republicans Still Favored to Win Back House Control but Outlook Tightens.”
13. Carney, Jordain. “It’s not just Hunter Biden: Prepare for a 2023 packed with House GOP investigations.” Politico, 19 July 2022. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/19/hunter-biden-gop-2023-00046419
14. Ward, Myah. “Trump, in return to D.C., hints at 2024 while rehashing 2020.” Politico, 26 July 2022. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/26/trump-dc-2024-capitol-riot-00048052
15. “Abortion Rises in Importance as Voting Issue, Driven by Democrats.” Pew Research Center.
16. Cadelago, Christopher. “Why Democrats are begging Trump to start 2024 right now.” Politico, 15 July 2022. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/15/dems-dreaming-of-trump-pre-midterm-announcement-00045969
17. Cadelago, Christopher. “Why Democrats are begging Trump to start 2024 right now.”
18. Cadelago, Christopher. “Why Democrats are begging Trump to start 2024 right now.”
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
