The recent new deal between the Chinese state and Saudi Arabia offers some important hints to the balance of power in the region and the changing paradigm of power dynamics in it, signalling that the US´s has increasingly strained its relationship with the Saudi royal family ever since President Biden promised even before assuming office to punish the Saudi Kingdom for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
In the background of these developments there has been an increasing cooperation on defence between the Russian federation and Iran that represents a clear alert to the US, which in turn will inevitably understand the necessity of increasing its commitment with its allies in the region in order to block the growth of Iranian (and Chinese) influence.
Simultaneously, Riyadh signals with this latest diplomatic development a change from its traditional approach with the US, with the strengthening of its ties with Beijing representing a strong challenge to the current Presidency.
Consequently, this new development has already won a lot of criticism towards Presidents Biden´s policy agenda for the region and the results it has produced, with the President being blamed in Washington and Riyadh for his “careless” treatment of the Saudi.
The strategic deal between Saudi Arabia and China can thus be seen also as a pressure from the Saudi government on the US to redouble its commitment and also as a type of punishment from the Saudi state for the President actions regarding its Houthi security problem.
At the centre of this is the President´s decision to take the Houthi resistance militias out of its terrorist list, a decision that the Saudi regime deeply condemned, since Houthi resistance movements represent a major security threat to Saudi Arabia. In addition, the Presidents support for the reopening of the nuclear negotiation agreement with Iran, which the Saudi monarchy sees as ineffective in countering Iran´s increasing military nuclear capabilities, is also at the centre of the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the US.
At the same time, the new military deals between Iran and Russia further threatens Saudi Arabia, with Iran soon receiving from Russia this year in exchange from its Shahed drones, state of the art Russian Su-35 fighter planes that it will be placed to use in the region to expand its power.
The US decision making elite seems at least in part to understand the complexity of the current challenges, with the US National Security Council Spokesman, John Kirby, explaining in a recent PR meeting that Moscow has “offered Iran an unprecedented level of military and technical support” that has officially transformed their relationship into a de facto “full defence partnership”.
The deepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran should serve also as a strong signal of the changing paradigm in the Middle East for the stability of the US´s power in the region.
Riyadh´s determination to resist Iran´s growth of power has been reflected by the recent comments made by Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud who warned that Saudi Arabia is “in a very dangerous space in the region” and that the US could “expect that regional states will certainly look towards how they can ensure their own security”, signalling the need to have nuclear capabilities as well.
Due to the lack of attention that Saudi Arabia sees itself getting from the US, Riyadh is seeking to establish a new security relationship with Beijing as well as develop its energy and trade deals with the Asian super-power, having received Chinese President XI Jinping in a manner it would only receive in the past US Presidents.
Xi held extensive strategic talks with the Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia´s de facto leader that has used the visit and the new deal with the Chinese leader to solidify its stay in power and his goal of establishing long-term political control of the Saudi Monarchy, establishing in the process a series of defence and technology deals with the Chinese that threaten the US exclusive relationship with the Kingdom and gives it less dependence on the US.
A specifically important aspect of the agreement for this aspect was the agreement with Chinese tech giant Huawei to supply the Saudi´s with cloud computing services and allow “high-tech” complexes to be built by China in Saudi cities, which is can only be seen as a shock to the US which regards Huawei as a potential security and spying threat to the US.
This further demonstrates that Riyadh is now moving away from its traditional alliance with the US and strengthening its ties with Beijing. At the centre of the relationship between the Saudi Kingdom and China is oil, with China being Saudi-Arabia´s top economic and energy trading partner.
Russia´s invasion of Ukraine has also been monopolized by the Saudi regime deepening its energy ties with China and forcing Biden to rethink his attitude towards the Saudis when it became apparent that the US is in strategic need of the Saudis to raise the oil supplies in order to ease the global prices.
The Biden presidency efforts did not however achieve its goal with the Saudis ignoring his plea to increase oil production.
Riyadh is now signalling also that it is looking to China to play a bigger role in the protection of its interests, a move that confirms the decline of the US influence in the region and that demonstrates that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase its cooperation with China.
The dependency of the Saudi state in the US, however, will continue, since Riyadh cannot simply replace Washington with Beijing, even if its relations with the current US administration worsen, and although new deals in technology and defence have been signed, there is little strategic cooperation between both states that can come even close to the cooperation between the Saudi Kingdom and the US.
It should be added that most of the arms deals that Saudi Arabia depends on to defend its security come from its partnership with the US and China does not have the capability to offer a better or equal alternative, with the detail of China also giving trade and support to Iran being relevant. China has also remained neutral in Saudi Arabia´s proxy and influence conflicts with Iran from Lebanon to Yemen and has maintained its support for the JCPOA, two elements that make it unsuitable to replace the place that US has occupied.
However, along with the increase in the last years of trade with China, the Saudi monarchy as also given an increased amount of focus to developing with the Chinese People’s Republic a strategic high-level dialogue that offers an alternative to the US when the US falters in meeting the Saudi government’s expectations, offering China large amounts of oil in exchange.
The Corona Virus pandemic only helped this process get stronger since China offered critical help to Saudi Arabia in the form of oil purchases that helped Saudi Economy resist recession and stabilize until the re-establishment of pre-virus oil prices while also giving health support during the pandemic.
Under this current context, the US seems to be increasingly cornered in a situation where it will have in the medium term to re-establish a new wave of commitment policies in the region to preserve its position. These post-corona changes and the recent deal between China and Saudi Arabia do not represent a definitive threat to the US´s privileged relation with Saudi Arabia, and Riyadh is aware of its dependency on the US.
The recent deals can only be seen as both a pressure measure on the part of the Saudi government to the US and a political tool by the Crown Prince to solidify his power.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
