For years now Hungary has proven itself an outliner in the Union by challenging its founding values and using its veto power to stop decisions requiring unanimity as leverage. Orban’s tactics have so far proven effective thanks to the Union’s own lack of enforcement mechanisms and his own ability to create alliances within the Union and exploit every leverage at his disposal. Orban’s resistance to EU rules and norms has now been a longstanding source of tension. Disagreements over the rule of law, corruption, and fundamental rights have led to clashes between Hungary and the EU. The European Commission has often openly criticized Hungary for judicial appointments interfering with court independence, discriminatory laws, and weakening anti-corruption authorities. All of this with little results. Nonetheless, against expectations, the Union’s efforts to secure a stable and substantial stream of funds to Ukraine have been successful in fending off Orban’s resistance.
Amidst an emergency European Union summit, Orban found himself at the centre of a carefully orchestrated diplomatic effort to secure his support for a landmark fund for Ukraine worth 50 billion euros ($54 billion). Facing pressure from European leaders, Orban ultimately relented, marking a significant breakthrough for both Ukraine and the EU. The coercive tactics employed by European Council President Charles Michel included dismissing Orban’s demand for an annual veto right over the Ukraine fund and suggesting the possibility of a legal suspension from EU proceedings. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, a political ally of Orban, utilized a more persuasive approach during a late-night meeting, proposing a review of the Ukraine fund in 2025 as a compromise. French President Emmanuel Macron also entered the scene, offering a nuanced solution by suggesting that EU leaders acknowledge Orban’s concerns about ideological bias in the joint conclusions. Simultaneously, discussions among other EU leaders confirmed the futility of holding out on the Ukraine fund, and the message was relayed back to Orban.
This concerted effort demonstrated the EU’s determination to secure unanimous agreement to support Ukraine. The aid package, dispensed over the next four years, is crucial for Ukraine’s economic stability, especially as U.S. aid remains pending in Congress. Orban’s obstruction in the EU had strained relations with Ukraine, and the breakthrough marked a turning point. The development is welcomed as Orban’s unique position to act as a spoiler within the EU has often in the past hindered European ambitions, including sanctions against Russia. His scepticism about Russia posing a security threat to Europe and his opposition to EU support for Ukraine have fuelled these conflicts.
Therefore, this current showdown, whereby Orban failed to secure an annual veto for the Ukraine fund, can be seen as a positive development and proof of leaders’ willingness to not compromise on important matters for the Union. Orban, however, did obtain a commitment to a regular review of spending, addressing concerns about diversion and corruption; and on this basis he claimed victory. Although we know he did not win on this one, the efforts necessary to overcome his resistance and the fact he still managed to obtain something that would prove the point of his reservations, shows how much of a problem Hungary has become for the EU.
It took a concerted effort by the most powerful countries in the Union to convince Orban to step back, and still he did not do so empty-handed. The need to address backsliding countries like Hungary should now become a priority for the Union which finds itself in troubling and changing times where it cannot afford to engage in prolonged negotiations over decisions that are in vital to its internal and external goal. It is even more necessary when Hungary shows a complete disregard for fundamental rights with impunity. The recent case of Ilaria Salis, an Italian woman jailed in Budapest, is just an example of this. The woman is jailed under tough conditions and only a few days ago she was brought to court in chains. The erosion of fundamental guarantees is just a piece of the puzzle that Organ is set to undone.
It is vital for the EU to recognise the positions taken by some of its member states are unsustainable in the long-term and that now more than ever the Union needs to show unity and be able to work effectively and speedily as much as possible. Especially considering that US leadership is being questioned on different fronts. On this ground, it should be less shy to use the full extent of the means at its disposal, including suspending membership rights and withholding funds, and to find ways to introduce other enforcement mechanisms that might exert great compliance with the founding values of the Union. In this sense, the less compromising attitude showed to Hungary by the EU on the matter of funds for Ukraine is welcomed and hopefully it represents a shift in approach to backsliding countries.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations
