The United States has been one of the biggest supporters in providing military aid and funds to both Taiwan and Ukraine. Recently The Us diverted their military aid from Taiwan to Ukraine and this strategic move will make The United States weak in case of a possible China take over to Taiwan. If the United States can protect Taiwan, this strategic tactic can deter an initial invasion, making it far more difficult for China to conquer the island. This adds to deterrence-by-denial by convincing Chinese officials that any attempt to invade Taiwan will fail and that China would be better off not trying at all.
The US must expedite weaponry supplies to Taiwan in order to prevent China’s quick takeover since Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken have warned that China intends to seize Taiwan by 2027. This involves providing the necessary weaponry for training and deployment, as well as storing armaments. Trade-offs between Taiwan and Ukraine occur when the United States’ weapons supplies are insufficient to suit both countries’ needs. In these circumstances, trade-offs will continue until the US and ally defence firms are able to provide enough weaponry for both sides while still providing US soldiers.
There is clearly some overlap between the weaponry provided by the United States to Ukraine and those required to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. There are already hints of competition between Taiwan and Ukraine for specific assets. In 2022, for example, Taiwan had to purchase more HIMARS a multiple rocket launcher to compensate for delays in Paladin mobile howitzers, which the US gave to Ukraine. Washington and its allies are increasingly delivering armaments to Ukraine, including HIMARS, Abrams tanks, F-16 fighter planes, and ATACMS, which Taiwan really desires. The backlog of US military deliveries to Taiwan, which has ballooned to more than $19 billion, predates Russia’s incursion, but Western assistance for Ukraine has aggravated the situation.
A major challenge for US policymakers is that Taiwan and Ukraine require many of the same weapons to protect themselves. Despite the growing possibility of conflict in Asia, Washington has so far prioritized supplying weaponry to Ukraine. However, this has substantially hampered and delayed the United States’ capacity to send weapons to Taiwan. Such delays undermine deterrence against China by preventing Taiwan from deploying weapons in time to keep up with China’s military expansion. They also pose threats to the US military who may be called upon to Taiwan’s defence. Well-armed Taiwanese opponents, for example, can neutralize Chinese forces before they attack American service men.
The United States should prioritize Taiwan because, allies including Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom, and other European countries, have vowed to increase military aid for Ukraine. Finland said in December 2023 that it will increase ammunition production to help Ukraine in the foreseeable future. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who was elected in December, has committed to expand military aid to Ukraine after the previous Polish administration threatened to cut some types of support. Another reason for policymakers to emphasize resolution is that the United States has global responsibilities and reputational stakes that extend beyond China.
The United States is at a critical moment in navigating the complex web of military aid diversion from Taiwan to Ukraine, where strategic decisions have global geopolitical consequences. While the adjustment raises worries about possible weaknesses in preventing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, it also represents a commitment to protecting Ukraine from Russian attack. Given the approaching consequences, Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken have emphasized the need of expediting military deliveries to Taiwan. The overlapping weapons demands for both regions, along with delivery delays, create a multidimensional dilemma. As Taiwan and Ukraine compete for similar assets, the United States faces trade-offs that affect both regional stability and its worldwide reputation. Prioritizing Taiwan is critical, not just because to vows of assistance from allies like as Germany and the United Kingdom, but also to maintain a strong deterrence to China’s aspirations. The delicate dance of trade-offs emphasizes the critical need for increased defence production to meet obligations on both fronts, guaranteeing a robust defence while maintaining US worldwide responsibilities.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations
References
Poznansky, M. (2024, January 9). The Ukraine-taiwan tradeoff. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/ukraine-taiwan-tradeoff
Velez-Green, A. (2023, August 31). Managing trade-offs between military aid for Taiwan and Ukraine. The Heritage Foundation. https://www.heritage.org/defense/report/managing-trade-offs-between-military-aid-taiwan-and-ukraine
