The amicable diplomatic relations between China and Russia, that were shown strong at the Winter Olympics last February in Beijing, may now face major challenges given the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops under Putin’s order.
China’s foreign policy main characteristic is its non-interference in other countries internal affairs, yet the current crisis may be challenging this stance. In regard to this fact, in the last UN Security Council meeting, China abstained in the voting condemning the invasion of Ukraine. In a way this can be seen as a pro-Russian vote, but alternately it can also be seen as a pro-west move, since it was expected that China voted in favour of Russia against the motion. Henceforth, the position of China is still hesitant and unclear, as it hasn’t referred to Russia’s actions in Ukraine as an invasion but hasn’t supported those same actions either. As well, previously to the invasions, there weren’t any efforts from China to try and dissuade the Russian government from taking any action towards the Ukrainian territory. Notwithstanding, China condemns the USA and the West for most of what’s happening (BBC, 2022 “The Ukraine crisis is a major challenge for China”).
As such, China is trying to please everyone by not upsetting anyone, in order to save itself. In fact, China’s strategy to “talk more and do less” advocating for dialogue and negotiation between the countries, seems to be a way of disguising the country’s stance on the crisis – given that China may actually benefit from everything that’s happening in the long run, as well as face drastically negative effects from it. On the one hand, China may benefit from the inaction and subsequent weakened alliance system that the USA might face arising from the lack of military support to Ukraine. Also, if the US intervenes militarily against Russia, that will open an opportunity of development for China. In addition, with all the sanctions Russia will be facing, it will have no choice but to economically rely on China and its market. Likewise, the threat of a US-EU-Russia joint force against China (one of the country’s biggest concerns) now seems very much unlikely. All of these factors might help China develop internally, as well as increase its power and leadership position within the International System (Observer Research Foundation, 2022 “China debates the crisis in Ukraine”). On the other hand, there might simultaneously be a not so positive scenario coming China’s way, because although the country has strong ties to Russia, there are also important ties to Ukraine, to Europe and even to the USA that need to be considered (The Scotsman, 2022 “China-Ukraine: Where does China stand on Ukraine, and will China join Russia in war?”). First and foremost, its economy will suffer a blowback, given that not only would its direct trade with Ukraine be affected, but also it would face secondary sanctions from the EU and the US (as well as the economic setback the global economy will face because of the war, which will disrupt supply chains, consumption of global wealth, wipe out productivity, …). On top of that, it will profoundly affect the development of its Belt and Road Initiative and the security of China’s economic and trade routes to Europe. Secondly, it will prompt the opportunity of social internal quarrels from separatist regions, underlining a controverse position from the Chinese government. If China openly supports Russia’s invasion it would be aligning with a country that supported the separatist fight of Donetsk and Luhansk – which could send the wrong message to regions such as Taiwan or Xinjiang. The last thing China wants right now is the manifestation of independence or greater autonomy from Tibetans or Uyghurs (similarly to what happened to Russian nationals who were living in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas) (Foreign Policy, 2022 “China’s Murky Position on Ukraine”). Thirdly, if China goes against Russia, to avoid everything mentioned previously, considering the isolation it’s been carrying out from the USA, it will leave its back unwatched, it will leave the country strategically alone, something it can’t really afford in the globalized era we are currently living.
It is clear that there might be hard consequences coming China’s way as this conflict evolves. Not only regarding economic and commercial matters, but also in regard to separatist issues. China now sees itself dealing with a dilemma, since that supporting war in Europe isn’t a viable option, nonetheless, the diplomatic ties the country holds with Russia are essential in order to legitimate the ever-growing development of both countries and its political systems as major powers in the world order (BBC, 2022 “The Ukraine crisis is a major challenge for China”). China will certainly face difficulties in the times to come, because even though its government is conducting a thorough control of online content, media and news regarding the situation in Ukraine, it inevitably fails to prevent the outside world from getting inside the country, which prompts not only social discontent against the position the country is (or isn’t) taking, but also public incites regarding separatist movements from certain regions on the China sphere of influence.
Either way China chooses to act upon it will in inescapably come up against unwanted outcomes, weather they are on economic, political, or social levels. As long as China affirms its respect for Ukrainian sovereignty at the same time it respects Russia’s security concerns, China’s position cannot be one hundred percent trusted. At this moment China isn’t helping Ukraine, despite its abstention at the UNSC voting, and although it also isn’t directly helping Russia, its silence towards the situation tacitly picks a side.
References
BBC (2022) “The Ukraine crisis is a major challenge for China”. Accessed on: 02/03/2022 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60492134
Foreign Policy (2022) “China’s Murky Position on Ukraine”. Accessed on: 02/03/2022 https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/23/china-position-russia-ukraine-diplomacy-sanctions/
Observer Research Foundation (2022) “China debates the crisis in Ukraine”. Accessed on: 02/03/2022 https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/china-debates-the-crisis-in-ukraine/
The Scotsman (2022) “China-Ukraine: Where does China stand on Ukraine, and will China join Russia in war?”. Accessed on: 02/03/2022 https://www.scotsman.com/news/world/where-does-china-stand-on-ukraine-3583932
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
