Historical Analysis
The United Kingdom has been during a significant period in history one of the main powers in the globe, with a vast empire, which extended to an approximate one-quarter of the world’s land surface. During this time Britain also enjoyed a position as one of the most important military powers, as they counted with the biggest navy in the world.
Furthermore, Britain was able to cash in from having this empire as they also enjoyed a powerful economy. Nonetheless, as always, things change, and Britain lost its empire. After the Suez Crisis of 1956, the United Kingdom felt that their role as one of the most important powers in the world had shifted and they were no longer the global power that they used to be. This crisis significantly changed the UK´s foreign policy in the years to come, and no one put it better than US secretary of state Dean Acheson in a statement in 1962 where he declared that “Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role” (Torreblanca, 2021; The Economist, 2021). Nevertheless, the UK was able in the years after the Suez Crisis to very intelligently use their position and their diplomatic capabilities to maintain their relevance in the global sphere as they forged very closed bonds with the United States and with Europe. In other words, the UK was able to use their position between the US and the European Union to regain notoriety as an important player in global politics, as Tony Blair put it, the UK needed to be a “bridge” between the US and Europe, being able of exerting influence in both Washington and Brussels (Torreblanca, 2021; The Economist, 2021).
This key position between the US and the EU added to the UK´s own capabilities, as being with France the two strongest EU powers militarily, as they counted with the biggest armies and nuclear weapons, as well as a seat with the power of veto on the United Nations Security Council enabled Britain to establish an ever-closer union with the US and thus ensure their position of power. Nevertheless, during this time the British government also understood that their position was directly linked to being a Member State of the European Union, which enabled the UK to exert their influence over one of the biggest economic powers in the world (Torreblanca, 2021; Lehne, 2021). Not only that but, during its tenure as a member, the UK was a crucial power for balancing the very different intentions of France and Germany, for instance by positioning itself against what they saw as unnecessary integration. Moreover, the UK was able to cash in the gains of being inside the Union and further increase their soft power, for instance by further developing the City in London as one of the major financial centres in the world, or by improving their network of world-class universities, which receive students from all-around the world (Torreblanca, 2021; Lehne, 2021).
However, this all changed in 2016 with the Brexit referendum, particularly due to the fact that Britain made the decision with this vote of losing its position of influence over one of its two main partners, which is the EU and, as it will be reviewed later, also putting in danger their preferential positions with the US (Torreblanca, 2021; Lehne, 2021). It has been widely argued that the nostalgia of the lost empire after 1956 and thus also their lost position in the world as one of the biggest global players had a significant amount of influence over a significant sector of the British population, which looked with resentment at the decision-making carried out in Brussels and wanted to go back to the days were Britain was able to exert their influence on their own and without the need of being part of a 28 members bloc (The Economist, 2021). This article will seek to give a description of what is the current UK´s foreign policy strategy now that Brexit has been completed, as they are now for instance able to sign their own trade deals with other countries. In addition, this article will focus on showcasing the possible effects that Brexit will have on Britain in regard to their relations with other powers, mainly the EU and the US.
The UK´s Strategy
Brexit has meant one of the biggest shifts for the UK in recent history. This change has come with multiple proposals about what direction should Britain take moving forward, especially regarding their foreign policy, like their new relationship with the EU now that Brexit has been completed and also their relationship with the rest of the world now that they are in a freer situation. The concept that has been used the most is the promotion of a “Global Britain,” showcasing their willingness to get some distance from the EU and focus on what other parts of the world have to offer (Kellner, 2021; Reilly, 2021). The best example of this new strategy is the Integrated Review of Security, Defense, Development, and Foreign Policy, which is a document that has been recently published by the UK government and focus on showcasing the UK´s external policy for the decades to come. Even though this document clearly discusses the importance that the EU will have in the future for Britain, it also portrays how the United Kingdom is looking at giving other regions much more importance, as a significant number of pages in the document are used for other locations like the Indo-Pacific region, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated, “we have the newly recaptured powers, we know where we want to go, and that is out into the world.” (Balfour, 2020; Lehne, 2021).
Nevertheless, even though the UK has argued that it plans on maintaining a strong relationship with the EU going forward, it has been suspected that it plans on not having to deal with the EU as a whole. This is part due to the fact that a lot of the decisions carried out by the UK government are still heavily influenced by the ideological warfare that has been raging in the country since the Brexit vote outcome was declared. Instead, it has been widely perceived that Britain finds it more comfortable dealing directly with the EU´s main two powers in France and Germany, as they already are members of various informal consultative groups, like the European Three (E3), which is formed by these three countries or the (European) Quad, which consists of the E3 countries and the United States. This was showcased in a speech by Boris Johnson in Munich where he declared his high expectations in working with the Quad (Lehne, 2021; Balfour, 2020). What is more, it looks like the UK has started taking positions very different to the EU ones in crucial areas, for instance it has joined other countries like US, Australia, and Canada in establishing a stronger position against Chinese abuses of power, which is significantly different to the EU as it has been much more moderate. Not only that, but the UK is planning on joining forces with countries like Australia, South Korea and India among other for building a ‘D10’ alliance of democracies, that would seek to confront China in one of the most crucial aspects for the future, as they plan on offering alternatives to technological equipment like for instance 5G. In spite of the fact that the UK would still have been able of carrying out these actions while remaining in the EU, they offer a clear example of how the UK plans on acting differently and more flexibly now (Whitman, 2020).
Some experts have also severely criticised the actions, which the UK plans on taking, for instance, Britain has been defending the importance and their role of protector of free trade. However, several experts have argued that this is the wrong timing for carrying out such actions, due to the fact that free trade agreements have stopped having the importance that they used to, especially in regard to showcasing global leadership (Torreblanca, 2021). Not only that but, others see several flaws in the UK´s decision of moving away from the European sphere and focusing on other regions of the planet. In order to be able to do this, the UK will need to urgently establish close commercial relations with new partners, especially now that their commercial relations with the EU seems to be deteriorating due to the UK´s decision to move away from the EU´s internal market. In order to do this, the UK has signed four new trade deals with African countries. Nevertheless, some have argued that Britain will not be able to obtain significant benefits from these new relations, particularly because for obtaining bigger benefits, the UK should do as its competitors as increase its investment in Africa instead of reducing it as they have done, for instance China invests four times more than the UK in this continent and France twice as much. In addition, as mentioned before, Britain has put forward ambitious plans for establishing a closer relationship with countries in the Indo-Pacific region, nonetheless, in order to do so, the UK will have to go against a much stronger competitor like China. Therefore, even though the UK has recently put forward a very ambitious plan for promoting the idea of a “Global Britain” that is able to cash in the benefits of their new position, it is clear that this will be much more difficult said than done, especially considering the problems that the UK will have to face from closing a more distant relation with its biggest economic partner, as well as the internal tensions that they are expected to have with the lingering possibilities of a new Scottish independence referendum and the instability in Northern Ireland due to its new position with respect to the rest of the United Kingdom (Torreblanca, 2021; Reilly, 2021).
The UK´s New Relations With Other Powers
The relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union has changed dramatically as a consequence of Brexit. The negotiations have been particularly problematic and have left a sense of distrust between both parties. Nevertheless, even though Brexit has been completed, negotiations are still carried out in various key areas as the 2020 EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement was left open to further negotiations (Lehne, 2021). Since Prime Minister Johnson came to power in July 2019, the UK entered a path of clearly distancing from the EU. In spite of this fact, the EU and the UK are still neighbours and share a common border, which means that the UK will still have to deal with the EU, as there have been problems which have already been created as a consequence of the Brexit negotiations, for instance, recently in the English Channel, French fishing vessels have faced problems accessing the coasts of the island of Jersey. This problem has dramatically increased the tensions between the UK and France, as the latter has even made threats like cutting off electricity supplies if a solution is not found (The Guardian, 2021). Furthermore, the biggest source of tensions between both parties continues to be the island of Ireland, as it is expected that the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol will cause tensions in the future (Lehne, 2021).
As mentioned before, a deep distrust has been set between both parties, which has recently been boosted by actions like the Internal Market Bill that the UK proposed to pass and that breached the good faith obligations that had been established in the Withdrawal Agreement regarding the protection of the Good Friday Agreement. In this respect, Brexit has severely hindered the UK´s foreign policy as it has notably reduced the influence that Britain was able of having in the bloc. Furthermore, how the negotiations have been carried out has made both parties see each other as potential rivals instead of close allies, which could probably have negative consequences in the future (Balfour, 2020).
Brexit has not only changed Britain’s relationship with the EU but also with other powers, mainly the United States. This is because now the UK not only being out of the EU but also having a very distant relationship with the Union makes Britain a far less attractive ally to the US than before. This is particularly the case for Biden´s administration as he looks to restore the close ties that the EU had with Europe before President Trump took office, this is showcase by various examples like President Biden talking on the phone with European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen during the first weeks of his tenure or U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken joining a meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council (Lehne, 2021; The Guardian, 2021). The EU´s far bigger economic capabilities makes it a more useful partner for Biden than the UK, especially if the EU Member States are able to achieve fast and common policies, which are in line with the US ones. This could prove disastrous for the UK as it could lead to the US looking directly for allies in Paris, Berlin and Brussels instead of going to London first, thus leaving Britain out of the important negotiating rooms . This was clearly showcased recently by the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, which suggested a “Concert of Powers for a Global Era” and the powers that the Council recommended were the United States, China, the EU, Russia, Japan, and India, leaving the UK as a second division power (Mason, 2021; Kellner, 2021). What is more, as Christopher Hill has argued, the global power is shifting Eastwards, which is also a major factor in explaining why the UK will have it increasingly difficult for maintaining its level of influence over the US, especially now that they are outside of the EU and are no longer part of a greater power, which the US could see as a key ally in facing China or Russia (Cameron, 2019).
In conclusion, Brexit has significantly shifted the UK´s position in the global sphere, as they have left outside one of the main pillars which supported their stance like the EU, but also has endangered the close relationship that the UK has long had with the US, as the latter may see the EU as a more useful ally for confronting the challenges ahead. This would be particularly disastrous for the UK as it would really hinder their capacity to influence the decision-making, as well as it would strongly damage their position as a global power (Cameron, 2019; Borrell, 2021). This added to the domestic instability that the UK is likely to face like a second Scottish independence referendum or instability in Northern Ireland because of the Northern Ireland Protocol leaves an image that the UK´s foreign policy in the years to come will have to face some major challenges, which it may be ill prepared to pass (Balfour, 2020; The Economist, 2021).
Bibliography:
- Balfour, R. 2020. After Brexit: Recasting a UK-EU dialogue on foreign policy. The foreign Policy Centre.
- Bond, I. 2018. British foreign policy after Brexit: Hand in hand? Centre for European Reform.
- Borrell, J. 2021. After Brexit, how can the EU and UK best cooperate on foreign policy? European Union External Action Service.
- Cameron, F. 2019. British Foreign Policy After Brexit. Green European Journal.
- Kellner, P. 2021. Britain’s Post-Brexit Ambitions Will Be Modest, Not Global. Carnegie Europe.
- Lehne, S. 2021. Rivals or Partners? The EU-UK Foreign Policy Relationship After Brexit. Carnegie Europe.
- Mason, P. 2021. Unsplendid isolation: Britain after ‘Brexit’ . IPS Journal. Retrieved on June 7, 2021, available at: https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/foreign-and-security-policy/unsplendid-isolation-britain-after-brexit-4923/
- Reilly, T. 2021. Brexit and The UK: A New, Independent Foreign Policy? Covington & Burling LLP.
- The Economist. 2021. Britain has lost the EU. Can it find a role? Retrieved on June 7, 2021, available at: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/01/02/britain-has-lost-the-eu-can-it-find-a-role
- The Guardian. 2021. The Guardian view on foreign policy after Brexit: growing pains. Retrieved on June 7, 2021, available at: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/the-guardian-view-on-foreign-policy-after-brexit-growing-pains
- Torreblanca, J.I. 2021. Home alone: The UK’s foreign policy after Brexit. European Council on Foreign Relations.
- Whitman, R.G. 2020. Why the UK Has Taken Foreign Policy Out of Brexit Negotiations. Chatham House.
By Mahmoud Refaat: The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
