The whole Brexit process has been an earthquake, which has shaken the foundations of the relationship that the European Union and the United Kingdom had been able to forge. Brexit has threatened to be a significant turning point for both parties involved, changing the way of living of millions, ranging from Brits who live in EU Member States, to European citizens living in the UK to even British tourist wanting to spend their holidays in a European destination. Nonetheless, the place where Brexit has jeopardised the status quo the most would be the island of Ireland, particularly because the unique situation of the island as it is the only border between the UK and an EU Member State and because of the difficulties in the negotiations regarding the Northern Ireland protocol (Briançon, 2021; Landow and McBride, 2021).
The history of the border has been an extremely quarrelsome one, as during the conflict known as “the Troubles” the border was heavily militarised. This conflict left thousands of victims and deeply scared the relations between the Catholic and Protestant communities living in Northern Ireland. The end of the conflict was achieved with the signing of Belfast Agreement, also known as the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. This agreement was mediated by U.S. Senator George Mitchell (D-Maine) and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and ended any land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, which significantly smoothed the border traffic of people and goods (Villiers Negroponte, 2021). This agreement was also reinforced by the EU Membership of both the UK and Ireland, as both countries were members of the EU’s single market, which enables the free movement of goods, services, people, and money within the EU. Thus, Brexit and the UK leaving the EU’s single market, left many questions about how the possible changes derived from this decision could influence the peace and economic situation in the island of Ireland. Several experts, including Tony Blair have argued that Brexit jeopardises the Good Friday Agreement. Leo Varadkar, former Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) also stated in March 2018 that Brexit “threatens to drive a wedge between Britain and Ireland, between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and potentially between the two communities in Northern Ireland.” The Good Friday Agreement is established on three stands. The first stand sought to create a web of institutions to govern Northern Ireland, the second one to bring together leaders in Northern Ireland with those in Ireland (North-South cooperation) and thirdly to bring together leaders from throughout the UK and Ireland (East-West cooperation), thus, the Good Friday Agreement has created an intricate network between all parties involved, as for instance the are over 140 areas of Northern Ireland–Republic of Ireland cross-border cooperation, which include health-care services, energy infrastructure, and policing, which could all be disrupted and as an extent this could undermine peace in the region (Landow and McBride, 2021).
For all this reasons, one of the most difficult questions to answer during the Brexit negotiations was where to draw the line within the EU customs area, in the whole of the UK or only in Northern Ireland. In the end, Prime Minister Boris Johnson agreed that Northern Ireland would remain within the EU’s single market for goods and services, as a form of avoiding a hard border between this region and the Republic. Therefore, he agreed on the establishment of controls on goods imported into Northern Ireland from outside the single market, which includes the rest of the United Kingdom (Briançon, 2021; Villiers Negroponte, 2021). This special status for Northern Ireland was agreed in what is known as the Northern Ireland Protocol, which pointed out that: “Northern Ireland could not be used as a transit point to export UK goods that undercut businesses in the EU by providing subsidies or relaxing competition rules” (Villiers Negroponte, 2021).
Nonetheless, even though this agreement was signed very recently, the UK has already threatened to suspend the implementation of the deal. This is mainly because one of the main areas in the Northern Ireland Protocol is the decision to guarantee that food which was not produced, processed or packaged under strict EU regulations and standards could not enter the European market, which affects the import from chilled mincemeat and sausages from Britain into Northern Ireland (Briançon, 2021; Villiers Negroponte, 2021). This is due to the fact that the EU wants to ensure that Northern Ireland does not turn into a “backdoor” into the EU´s single market (Rose and Holden, 2021). The grace period for the import of these products ends on the 30th of June and Johnson has argued that he is considering the unilateral extension of this grace period, just as he did in March with the grace period for agricultural goods, which goes directly against the Northern Ireland Protocol as it clearly states that those decisions must be made with the consent of both parties. Johnson has showcased his willingness to not letting a rift be created between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK as he clearly stated that he would do “whatever it takes” regarding the so-called “sausage war,” including invoking Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which enables one of the trade-partners to take unilateral action, as it is viewed as a last resort move (Ní Aodha, 2021; Noori Farzan and Aries, 2021).
These actions by the UK government have sparked a backlash by the EU and its Member States for instance Maros Sefcovic, Vice-President of the European Commission for Inter-institutional Relations and the EU’s chief negotiator clearly stated that these actions by the UK had made the relationship between the two players be at a “crossroads.” He argued that “trust, which should be at the heart of every partnership, needs to be restored” “that is the EU approach and the EU preference. If the U.K. were to take further unilateral action over the coming weeks, the EU will not be shy in reacting swiftly, firmly and resolutely to ensure that the U.K. abides by its international law obligations” (News Wires, 2021). Micheál Martin, Ireland’s current Taoiseach argued that these unilateral actions that the UK was planning on carrying out could be “very problematic” as he pointed out that “it’s not about sausages per se, it really is about the fact that an agreement had been entered into, not too long ago, signed off by the British government with the EU” “if there’s consistent, unilateral deviation from that agreement, that clearly undermines the broader relationship between the EU and the UK, which is in nobody’s interest and therefore that’s why the UK with the EU have to work very hard now in the coming weeks” (Beesley, 2021). The UK has argued for more leniency from the EU in how they interpret the Protocol, as Robert Jenrick, UK Cabinet Minister asked for more “common sense” from the EU as he stated that “we’re asking them to show some common sense and enable something as simple as some chilled meats like a sausage to travel from Great Britain to Northern Ireland” “I hope that we can sort that out because there are also things even more important than sausages at stake here, for example medicines” (Forrest, 2021). Brexit has ignited an increase in tensions between the UK and the EU, which has resulted for instance in the forbiddance of French fishermen from the waters around the Island of Jersey. This resulted in a reaction by the EU, which increased the amount of paperwork needed for the sale of crayfish and other crustaceans fished in UK waters. Not only that but, Malread McGuinness, EU Commissioner for Financial Services argued that as a consequence of these actions, the EU would delay the UK´s access to European financial markets. Therefore, it is not hard to believe that the tensions created by this “sausage war” could even lead to a trade war, as it has been speculated, which could prove extremely damaging for both the UK and the EU (Briançon, 2021; Villiers Negroponte, 2021).
Nevertheless, the Northern Ireland Protocol has not only been a source of tension for all the parties involved, but it has also been discussed that it could act as a steppingstone for a future Irish reunification. This is mainly because even though the Protocol has created vast amounts of problems and tensions, the statistics showcase that Northern Ireland is greatly benefitting from staying inside the EU´s Single Market, according to the Ireland’s Central Statistics Office the value of the goods that were sold in the Republic by companies established in Northern Ireland during the first four months of 2021 was £900 million, which is a 60% increase compared to the same period of the previous year. What is more, the value of exports from the Republic of Ireland to Northern Ireland was worth £835 million, which is a 40% increase. Several important business owners have welcomed the fact that Northern Ireland can still carry out business with the 26 EU Member States, without the checks and controls that businesses in the rest of the UK are suffering. Alan Armstrong, CEO of the Almac pharmaceuticals group expressed his happiness towards the decision that both the European Medicines Agency and the British Government made, regarding the Northern Irish alignment with the EU as he stated that this announcement “ensures that our current and future clients can continue to receive an unfettered solution with exclusive access to both the EU and UK marketplace. Crucially, our unique location in Northern Ireland ensures we can provide uninterrupted service provision now, and into the future, maintaining our position as a global leader in the life sciences sector.” What is more, these facilities for trade have also increased the connections between Northern Ireland and the rest of the EU, as for instance the number of weekly sailings between Ireland and France has doubled since Brexit (Ellis, 2021; Edgington and Morris, 2021). This added to the demographic changes, which Northern Ireland is experiencing has let to many experts believing that Irish reunification is a real possibility. John O’Dowd, a politician in the Northern Irish Assembly for Sinn Féin argued that “the demographic and political changes that are happening in the north and across the island of Ireland won’t wait decades. There’s a growing conversation and a growing swell of opinion around it.” Furthermore, Brendan O’Leary, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania who has authored several books on Northern Ireland stated that “I think what the polls are picking up is a shift in enthusiasm for the idea of a united Ireland and a shift in enthusiasm for a referendum,” “people believe as a result of Brexit that Northern contentment with the world after the Good Friday Agreement is no longer settled and in addition the UK itself is unstable” (Pogatchnik and Coi, 2021).
In conclusion, Brexit has been an incredibly influential event, which has created a change in the course of history. Nevertheless, one of the biggest changes, which will come because of it is the situation of the island of Ireland, particularly for Northern Ireland, due to the fact that Brexit could change the whole dynamic that the island was living in since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Without a doubt, the short-term changes will be influenced by how both parties implement the Northern Ireland Protocol, which it may be one of the biggest sources of tension for the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, particularly due to the fact that there are already evidences of a possible trade war, after only six months from the signature of the deal. Nonetheless, even though these short-term tensions may be of great importance, the biggest outcome of Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol may be felt longer into the future, especially depending if it becomes a solid step-stone towards a reunification process in the island of Ireland thus increasing the possibility of further UK disintegration or not.
Bibliography:
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By Mahmoud Refaat: The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
Contribution Alvaro Perez Cardenes, The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
