Sixteen years have passed since the election of the first female Chancellor in Germany’s history, Merkel proved to be one of the longest-serving democratically-elected European leaders ever existed marking her decision to not seek re-election in 2021, it is the end of an era and it leaves everyone wondering what is going to happen next, as her strongest feature in both her country and others’ eyes she has always been a stable leader, a safe-bet even when times were tough such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, and this is precisely why Angela Merkel will go down in history as one of the most popular political leaders in the world.
She was able to make her people hope for a quick economic recovery during the 2009 crisis which troubled the entire Eurozone, she achieved a pivot alliance with Russia and all her success is only contributing to the speculation on who is going to inherit the “burden” of such a reputation once Merkel will have stepped down.
The Chancellor has already been in power for more years than the leader Konrad Adenauer and she might overtake even Helmut Kohl becoming the longest-serving German post-war leader, moreover, a recent poll has shown that Merkel is considered to be the world’s most trusted leader, not by chance under her mandate Germany shifted to the world’s fourth-largest economy with rising living standards, her attitude has always been business-friendly but never lacked humanism in occasions such as her decision not to close Germany’s borders against a giant wave of refugees in September 2015, last but not least her support of the European Recovery Program probably managed to save the European Union.
Finally, she finds herself with no heir, and the question of who will eventually succeed her was constantly floating over everyone’s head, originally her protégé Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer had been selected as the next leader of the CDU and therefore the new probable Chancellor, but after her poor performance at the polls she soon announced her stepping down from the leadership of the CDU and letting the race take over again; new names came forward such as the arch-conservative Friedrich Merz who lost the leadership of the CDU to AKK in 2018 and tried to gain some votes from the voters who opposed Merkel’s open-door policy with the proposal of a stricter controls on immigration one, moreover he has targeted the ECB policy less diplomatically than the current chancellor, on the other side we have the centrist Armin Laschet whose coalition with the Free Democrats will help his cause and complains for the German delay in answering the French call for the European Union reform, lastly another possible candidate is Norbert Röttgen, the chairman of the Bundestag’s Committee on Foreign Affairs who wants Germany to take a firmer stance with Russia and China, however polls show that Markus Soeder, the CSU leader is the voters’ choice conservative; regardless of who will succeed Angela Merkel one thing we can be sure of is the fact that it will not be an easy decision since at stake there is the leadership of Europe’s biggest economy led by the predominant leader of Europe since taking office in 2005.
The Day has arrived, and Merkel’s mandate has indeed ended, on Sunday the 26th of September the German people were called to vote for the next political era to come and the SPD party was able to become the largest one in Germany’s future federal parliament by a shockingly small percentage gap from Merkel’s party, the CDU, so much that it could take at least a month of coalition negotiations before the current chancellor can turn over the keys to her successor.
This narrow distance between the two leading parties will increase difficulties to form a stable and coherent alliance however possible coalitions include the followings: SPD-FDP-Grüne/SPD-Grüne-Linke/SPD-CDU/SPD-CDU, in addition, The SPD’s head Olaf Scholz and the CDU/CSU’s leader Armin Laschet will now both try to earn the highest title, with each of them aiming to lead a coalition that would also include the Greens and Free Democrats.
What will all of this mean for Europe? The next chancellor will need to secure the EU’s gains but in doing so still trying to build a strong coalition that would support him in the long run, it is widely known that Germany’s role in Europe is cardinal especially when it faces overwhelming challenges such as the recent Covid-19 related pandemic, the incumbent threat of climate change, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical upheaval as well as the fact that the EU policy has been rarely mentioned during any of the electoral campaigns which is even more concerning.
The other European leaders sure have high expectations, which will include pushing back against Russian decisiveness in Eastern Europe in a firmer manner, annealing the lucrative trade ties with China always making sure to keep an eye on how human rights are or not respected, alongside European security interests, and stepping up in NATO and European defense efforts as well as carrying on Merkel’s oath that Ukraine will remain an energy transit route investing in hydrogen power development in Ukraine, still, being prepared to take action against Moscow if necessary.
For the first time in post-war history, the next chancellor could be either Olaf Scholz from the center-left Social Democrats, Armin Laschet from the center-right Christian Democrats, or even Annalena Baerbock from the Greens. All three of them have been atop the polls for several weeks at a time since May.
What we know for sure is that for the next few months, Germany will be under a microscope and scrutinized, the international arena will be asking itself if anyone that comes after Merkel can keep up the good work or will be at least able to provide even half of the stability she offered to her country; for what concerns the international scenario, on the other hand, it could change drastically or not depending on how the new coalition is going to act towards the promises and alliances made by the exiting chancellor.
Bibliography:
https://www.politico.eu/germany-election-2021/
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/germany-elections-news-results-09-26-21-intl/index.html
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
