The UK’s Prime Minister, Boris Johnson is currently facing the most politically perilous moment of his premiership, as he continues to come under intense scrutiny over his involvement in a series of N° 10 drinks parties held in the midst of England’s lockdowns aimed to fight the coronavirus pandemic.
Boris Johnson just announced a plan to take the first steps out of the lockdown that began in March 2020, but he repeatedly stated that people should continue to respect social distancing and to be careful adding that the timetable relied on “every one of us staying alert and acting responsibly.
Having initially publicly stated in December that he was “sickened” at the prospect of Downing Street employees simply ignoring social restrictions, it is odd that the prime minister now finds himself sidestepping questions about whether he too attended an event on 20 May 2020 after an explosive leaked email provided evidence that over 100 staff were invited to attend a so-called “bring your own booze” party.
Mr. Johnson did address the issue, confirming that he had attended the garden gathering for around 25 minutes with the intention of thanking his staff for their efforts during the pandemic while claiming: “I believed implicitly that it was a work event.”, he then apologized, expressed empathy for the public fury in light of the personal sacrifices millions had made and implored his critics to await the outcome of Ms. Gray’s inquiry before passing judgment.
The investigation is in fact being carried out by Sue Gray, a senior civil servant at the Cabinet Office, and her report is likely to be a largely factual account of any gatherings as she cannot rule on whether lockdown laws were broken.
In the meantime, both Liberal Democrat leaders called on Mr. Johnson to “do the decent thing and resign” since, if he indeed broke lockdown rules at the No 10 gathering, calls for his resignation will only grow louder.
Since then, news of more parties has emerged, with The Daily Telegraph reporting that Downing Street staff attended two separate events the evening before Prince Philip’s funeral, which saw the Queen sit alone in accordance with strict Covid rules as she bade farewell to her husband of 73 years.
There are many different paths towards a potential resignation, but just two years after winning a thumping majority at a general election, he is unlikely to resign on his own accord.
So, in short, what could happen next?
The scenario that will probably be the least likely is that PM Johnson will, in fact, resign, if he did, however, it would not be an instant exit, he would need to set a timeframe for stepping down, after which a Conservative leadership contest would take place, and that could run for up to six weeks.
The next point of extreme jeopardy for Johnson is that, depending on how hard Ms. Gray goes, the report could be accompanied by immediate resignations from people involved in the alleged rule-breaking or it could make Johnson’s own position untenable, in this case, we could expect to see more MPs calling publicly for Johnson’s head and potential Cabinet resignations.
So either the Cabinet could launch a full-scale revolt with senior ministers telling the prime minister to stand down or 15 percent of the Conservative Party’s MPs could submit letters of no confidence in the prime minister to the chair of the influential 1922 Committee of backbench Tories which would trigger a vote of confidence in Mr. Johnson and his premiership would be on the line.
Furthermore, the Metropolitan Police have so far not opened an official investigation into the many alleged incidents of rule-breaking despite widespread public anger, if they did opt to launch a formal investigation the pressure on Johnson to resign would become acute again.
However, there’s no requirement in the U.K. for a minister or MP to stand down if they’re convicted of a crime unless they are sentenced to more than a year in prison.
Through all of this, Tory MPs who fancy their chances as the next prime minister will be making calculations about how best to position themselves.
Whether more powerful members of his Cabinet move against Johnson in the coming days and mount a leadership challenge is now being closely watched but most Tory politicians have said they are awaiting the results of Sue Gray’s much-anticipated inquiry, for now.
How public anger plays out in local elections in the U.K. in May could well determine whether the Conservative Party moves against Johnson if he does not resign.
Moreover, prior to these latest outrages, a poll found that two-thirds of the public believed that the current PM should resign over his role in the parties.
But will Boris Johnson go? We shall find out soon if the calls for him to step aside, which are already becoming deafening will be listened to.
References:
Uk’s Johnson faces party allegation as he fights for job, available at:
5 ways Boris Johnson’s party gate scandal could play out, available at:
https://www.politico.eu/article/five-ways-boris-johnson-partygate-scandal-play-out/
Will Boris Johnson resign? Available at:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-resign-tory-party-b1999259.html?r=37346
What happened to Boris Johnson? Available at:
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
