Australia is a long-standing ally of the United States (U.S.) and an important military actor within the region while competing with several other countries on multi-level factors such as China to gain the upper hand. Rise of the People’s Republic of China on both economical and militaristic levels threatens its rivals in the Asia-Pacific region especially Taiwan itself. Connected to this, several countries form security pacts and also increase their military capabilities to secure their interests in the future. However, this escalation of military and security bonds/boosts might backfire and further destabilize the region overall.
In light of these developments, in anticipation of a potential Pacific confrontation between China and the U.S., Australia plans to increase defence expenditure by A$50.3 billion ($32 billion) over the next ten years and reorganise its weapons programmes to prioritise missiles, drones, and warships. The majority of the additional funding, which is a portion of a ten-year budget of A$330 billion, won’t begin to roll out for five years. Ultimately, defence expenditure will rise from slightly over 2% of GDP now to 2.4% of GDP by 2034.[1] This increase of the direct funding for the military shows the expected conflict between these two superpowers might be closer than ever and the region is evidently preparing itself for its fallout in general.
Furthermore, the Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles’ announcement emphasizes and signals the necessities of preparing for a potential regional shift in power dynamics. Moreover, understanding the fragile balance of power might also fall soon and break the holds of U.S. and China to forcefully engage each other through open conflict which would draw all their allies into a war. Since Australia is an essential ally and an important strategic location within the region, their future involvement would almost be certain in a possible confrontation between U.S. and China. Based on this, the Australian navy will get the majority of the increased funds to update their surface fleets, advance the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine programme, and advance the Ghost Shark underwater drone project in order to oppose and be ready for any potential Chinese assault. Large sums of money are also being allocated to missile technology, with the goal of creating longer-range missiles and establishing local production capacity for guided weapons to match the technologies of their rivals.
Moreover, in this topic, it is obvious that the technological advancements on drone capabilities and the long-range missiles would play a crucial role in any potential confrontation between China and the West which would cover up Australia’s defence against any threats as well. Several academics and professional would suggest that any potential future open conflict in Asia-Pacific region would be ignited through a Chinese aggression towards Taiwan which would trigger U.S. to immediately involved and setting would turn into a catastrophic open battle between two sides. In connection to that, Australia’s defence boost to its military might also signal other Pacific nations to follow the same path to secure their interests which would further raise the stakes of war and confrontations. Perceived threats with this defence boost and certain other security pacts in the region could trigger another Cold War like scenarios and stability of the global peace could turn for worse in the future.
In another perspective, Australia’s defence boost and further investments in the military research could also boost its national defence industry and create jobs which would decrease their dependency to their allies, especially with the U.S. thus creating another rivalry in the region. Australia’s strategic move could also affect the global military investments and draw them towards the region and itself in the future. Foreign and domestic arms supplier could also emerge as prominent actors in the region to further influence the stability which would endanger the balance of powers.
In conclusion, Australia’s decision to increase their fund over the military and its technological developments could alter the balance of power and the dynamics of the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Pacific. This development would certainly have long lasting effects which would cause serious implications on both for the West and their rivals in the Pacific. Rise of military readiness and the global tensions signals a possible confrontation between two superpowers and Asia-Pacific would certainly be a key battleground for it.
By The European Institute for International Relations
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/missiles-drones-warships-priority-australia-plans-32-bln-defence-boost-2024-04-17/#:~:text=SYDNEY%2C%20April%2017%20(Reuters),between%20China%20and%20the%20U.S.
