Taiwan’s relationship with mainland China is far from being amicable. The Island of Taiwan is separated from China by the Taiwan Strait, and its independent, democratically elected government, has a distinct perception of the island’s relation with the mainland. China, has vowed to unify Taiwan with the rest of their territory, however such prosperity is not shared with Taiwanese officials, who are more interested in sticking to their sovereignty.
Under the former president’s government, cross-strait ties were present and consistent, as the President Ma Ying-jeou endorsed such relationship. However, with the election of President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, such friendliness came to an end, culminating to some aggressive actions made by Chinese government.
The lack of understanding over Taiwans existence goes far back to the different interpretations from both sides to the 1992 consensus: where mainland China understood the consensus reflected an agreement that the two sides of the strait represented One China; and Taiwan understood the consensus as and agreement that there was One China, and different interpretations, with the island being the “One China”.
The ambiguous interpretation of the 1992 consensus still fuels animosity between Mainland China and Taiwan. Taiwan also known as the Republic of China (ROC), has its own Constitution and political system that’s different from China, who is also referred to as the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In President’s Tsai’s inaugural speech in 2016, she expressed her political alliance to the ROC’s Constitution, and that the relationships between them with ROC would be done under such Constitution and the Act Governing Relations Between the People of Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area. As a result, Beijing cut off official ties with Taiwan.
In 2019, president Xi emphasised the long proposal for Taiwan to be ruled with the same regime as Hong Kong, which would be “one country, two systems”, as this would preserve Beijing’s political and economic systems while still granting that territory a high degree of autonomy. However, this framework is heavily rejected by both Taiwanese citizens and government.
As much as Taiwan’s relations with China can be quite prejudicial to the islands foreign relations, as China for example rejected ROC’s participation as a member in UN agencies and other international organisations, we can still see diplomatic ties with the country to other States, such as a strong, but unofficial, relationship with the US.
Economically speaking, we see that Taiwan’s main trading partner is in fact China. During the island’s last administration, more than 20 pacts where signed between ROC and PRC, including agreements to lift barriers to trade, resuming the countries direct sea and air links, that were banned for years. Under the new presidency, Taiwan was able to increase trade with other Southeast Asian countries, however Chinese imports and exports are extremely valuable for them.
Back in 1979 the US established diplomatic relations with China, and severed ties with the ROC, as far as revoking its mutual defence treaty. However, the western country is still seen selling defence equipment to Taiwans military, resulting in multiple announcements made by Beijing that urges such contact to end. The US has a peaceful approach to promote stability in the strait, and asks for Beijing and Taipei to maintain their status quo, however, Washington has expressed that they do not support Taiwanese independence.
In more recent times, under Trump’s administration, relations with Taiwan have deepened, even having made contact over telephone ahead of his inauguration. Biden followed such approach, with less ties, however he did reaffirm the allowance of more free meetings between US and Taiwan’s officials.
The US is also quite preoccupied about the current situation between Taiwan and China to evolve into an armed conflict. China in recent times has been developing quite a stern and assertive policies when it comes its presence in Asia. Since China hasn’t ruled out the possible use of force to achieve Taiwans unification, a possible conflict between ROC and PRC can ultimately evolve to a US-China war.
As much as experts agree that the timing might not be immediate, this conflict cannot be completely ignored. The unlikeliness of a conflict to happen in current times is due to the recurrent dream from president Xi of the Chinese Dream, as he wishes to secure China’s great power, and for it to be restored by 2049. What this means is that the Chinese agenda prevails peace with Taiwan over generating more instability in the area, even tho communications between the two are still inexistent.
A year away from their next presidential elections, Taiwanese candidates are certainly appealing to the public’s support when it comes to how the country should deal with China. The KMT presidential candidate laid out important plans regarding their relation, focused mainly on building a strong military defence in order to prevent any aggression and prospects of war in the Strait.
He also follows current presidents agenda to deal with China according to the Republic of China’s Constitution and laws, reiterating that peace comes with dialogue, so a clear cut of ROC and PRC relations would not work in favour for the islands interests. The presidential candidate will then promote an active collaborative government, as well as a strong and prepared military to deal with strait relations, once again agreeing to experts claims that a conflict is unlikely to happen at least before 2049.
In conclusion, the long and rich relation between China and Taiwan has no prospect of getting any simpler, and as much as tensions between them are not at all low enough to be disregarded, their ties are always considered before either of them commit to any sort of armed conflicts. At least for the following years, sentiments between them of maintaining their status quo is a bigger priority than China’s wishes to achieve the ultimate unified Chinese-dream.
REFERENCES:
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwans-path-between-extremes
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
