China is visibly closing itself off. Exchange and dialogue are hardly possible anymore. This has drastic consequences for the relationship with the West. For more than two and a half years, hardly any foreign political advisor has visited China. Some even say Scott Kennedy is now the first. The senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington believes the lack of face-to-face meetings is devastating. It seems like the governments in Washington and Beijing are both trapped in their respective echo chambers, he says.
“US-China relations are in a terrible state. We are on a trajectory that will eventually lead to kinetic conflict”, Kennedy said during a European Chamber of Commerce event in Beijing. His job, he said, is to “open the door to the echo chamber a little bit here in Beijing to get some air in and to hear what people are thinking, and then go home, to Washington, open the door of the echo chamber there and share some thoughts”. Even his arrival is a testament to how difficult exchanges with China have become. His first attempt to enter the country had failed in April because of the lockdown in Shanghai. Kennedy detoured through Taiwan and South Korea and spent 26 days in quarantine before he could make his first interview in Beijing. China, he says, is almost as hermetically sealed as North Korea.
In this Chinese bubble the conviction has solidified that America is out to overthrow the Communist Party. In Washington, the view feeling towards China hardened like cement. On both sides, there are false assumptions and hardliners who could set in motion a dynamic that leads to military conflict. The danger of miscalculations increases with every closed channel of communication. But global surveillance in China leads Kennedys interlocutors to practice self-censorship. They are under pressure to submit to the official narrative. In addition, the Chinese leadership is isolating itself to such an extent that even in informed circles, people can only speculate about the country’s course.
Two weeks before the big party congress (that will occur on the 16th of October), for example, it is impossible to know who will move up and how they’ll move. It is also unclear, what strategic considerations made, state and party leader, Xi Jinping sign a joint declaration on Feb. 4th with Russian President Vladimir Putin on a “partnership without borders”. This is particularly problematic, because this move has unfortunately led to a massive mistrust of the western leaders toward China.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the question is whether the Chinese leadership is aware of how much its stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine has changed the European view of China. Diplomats in Beijing report talks in which they are lectured on what their country’s policy should look like. There is no longer any willingness to engage with the other side’s perspective. It doesn’t help that in some countries, Chinese ambassadors hardly ever leave their residences for fear of catching Corona. Chambers of commerce in European countries have been asked to postpone their critical reports on the economic situation until after the party congress, because positive sentiment is to be spread. It is questionable whether analyses that deviate from the leadership’s self-perception will even be passed up to the top.
In these politically sensitive times before the party congress, an unsparing comment could probably be seen as an attack on Xi Jinping’s authority. Is it a denial of reality ?
In the long run, communication with China is unlikely to get any easier. Researchers at Europe’s leading think tank, the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin, have collectively imposed entry bans on Beijing in 2021. Ruth Schimanowski, the head of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) office in Beijing, is already worried about the China expertise of the future.
Because of Corona restrictions, foreign students and guest lecturers could not enter China for more than two years. According to DAADs estimate, there are currently less than 1% of the 44 million students that aren’t Chinese. Some European universities want to discontinue existing collaborations which would be catastrophic. That’s also because the view of the country has changed. Anyone who advocates exchange with China is quickly labeled naïve. However it is imperative that exchanges are made between young people in order to create better understanding of each other.
At all levels, the country is closing itself off to foreigners. One reason is that foreigners are considered a risk of infection for Corona. Another is that an image of the enemy has been built up, according to which foreign countries seek to harm China. Aid projects are increasingly viewed with suspicion. For local party leaders, the political risk and monitoring costs are now often greater than the benefits of an aid project. The reports of partner organizations contain less and less real information because state security asks them not to report anything negative. Even lists of participants in events are considered too sensitive to pass on to foreigners.
The flow of information between China and Western countries has also decreased because many foreigners have left the country because of the strict Corona policy. The European Chamber of Commerce estimates that the number of Europeans in China has more than halved since the start of the pandemic and the exodus continues.
Even those who have spent many years promoting a nuanced image of China are turning their backs on the country. For example, German lawyer Ralph Koppitz, who returned to Germany in August after more than twenty years. He was there when China opened up in the early 2000s. “We used to have confidence that China was different, but capable of being pragmatic and reasonable”, Koppitz says.
But during the two-month lockdown in Shanghai, the family learned about the country’s irrational, arbitrary side. The often blind obedience of those in charge was frightening, he says. For example, the family was awakened at 2:30 in the morning for antigen tests that might as well have been done during the day. A neighbor with a broken foot had to fight to be allowed into the hospital. That experience was enough to persuade the family to leave. The lawyer continues to see himself as a mediator between the worlds, but now in the opposite direction: “I try to convey to our Chinese friends how normal everyday life is in Europe without Corona restrictions”. That Europe is not in chaos, as claimed in China’s state media to justify the zero Covid strategy.
References
https://www.dw.com/de/rückkehr-ungewiss-exodus-aus-shanghai/a-61839407
https://www.bbc.com/news/59882774
https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-zero-covid-what-should-west-do
https://www.daad.org.cn/de/praesenz-erlaubt-einreise-nicht/
https://www.csis.org/node/65721
https://news.missouristate.edu/2022/09/22/rundown-us-china-relations/
https://www.china-briefing.com/news/us-china-relations-in-the-biden-era-a-timeline/
https://www.csis.org/analysis/central-questions-us-china-relations-amid-global-turbulence
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
