The Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 seemed at the time to be a major shift in how governments in North Africa were going to be ran, changing from autocratic regimes to democratic ones. Nevertheless, after ten years this has not been the case, as most of these countries are either suffering a raging civil war or a new dictatorship has taken power. The only country that experienced an Arab Spring uprising and has been able to maintain its democracy until now is Tunisia. There are various reasons, which help explain Tunisia’s success story, firstly, this is a country that counts with a strong civil society, as it has been considered to be a small homogeneous country that counts with key factors that has helped maintain its democracy, like a high level of development, which can be seen in the high levels of education in the population and reigning culture of tolerance in the country (Grewal, 2021; DemDigest, 2020). However, even though Tunisia has been the biggest success from the Arab Spring, its process of democratisation until today has also had its rocky moments. That was particularly the case in 2013, when two political assassinations situated the country close to collapsing, as they resulted in harsh polarisation and the suspension of the country’s sole elected institution. In spite of this, Tunisia was able as a country to go through those difficult times, without reverting back to the old autocratic ways and since then, Tunisia has approved its constitution and has also carried out free elections in 2014 and 2019 (Grewal, 2021; Madan, 2021).
Nonetheless, just as in 2013, several experts have argued that the country is currently in a very dire situation, as they are facing a critical economic crisis. Tunisia is in this situation mainly because it has been unable to make major economic reforms in the country, as well as it has been unsuccessful in fully democratising its political system, which has left the country close to being bankrupt (Megerisi, 2021). There are several reasons, which help explain the current situation of stagnation that Tunisia is facing, one of these main reasons has been the imperative need for general agreement in Tunisian politics (Grewal, 2021; Reuters Staff, 2019). Another major reason is the constant change in governments, which seem unable to stay in power long enough to be able to carry out any major reform, for instance the government under Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh, lasted only five months. Not only that but, the current government under Hichem Mechichi seems to also be suffering from this instability. This combined with other common political practices in Tunisian politics like the continuous change in party affiliation by politicians, personality-driven politics, and the series of cabinet ministers using revolving doors once they have finished their political careers has resulted in a deep mistrust by the Tunisian population of the political system and the government. This feeling has also been exacerbated by the big political corruption that the country experiences. Even though President Kais Saied ran on an anticorruption platform, and he has tried with Prime Minister Mechichi to eradicate corruption, an important segment of the Tunisian population still argues that more transparency is needed (Yerkes and Mbarek, 2021). This feeling of political mistrust was greatly portrayed in the 2019 elections, where more and more people seemed to go for more extreme parties. Finally, the third major factor which complicates major economic reforms from being passed is the strong Tunisian civil society. Even though this factor was crucial for maintaining the democratic reforms achieved after the Arab Spring in 2011, having a strong civil society has also had some disadvantages for Tunisia. This is mainly due to the fact that, the significant power that labour and business sectors hold in the country has made it impossible for the Tunisian government to draft policy, which is able to satisfy both sides, thus resulting in stagnation (Grewal, 2021).
As mentioned before, this incapacity to carry out economic reforms has left the country in a critical economic situation, as the country is suffering for instance from increasing unemployment. The economic situation in Tunisia has been exacerbated by recent events like the Covid-19 pandemic, which has seriously hit important sectors like the touristic one. In addition, international organisations like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Union have also been incapable of producing any major difference in the economic situation of Tunisia. The most important aftermath from this critical situation is that it could prove fatal for democracy in Tunisia, particularly due to the fact that, it further boosts the feeling of disenfranchisement that the population has been suffering, for instance, according to a poll carried out by the International Republican Institute (IRI) in September 2020, 87% of Tunisians believe their country is headed in the wrong direction, which is a stark increase compared to the 67% who answered the same in December 2019. Not only that but, the nostalgia for the dictatorship era under Ben Ali has been increasing. Therefore, it is very clear that unless the situation in the country changes, the only success story to come out of the Arab Spring uprisings may soon lose its status (Yerkes and Mbarek, 2021; Debuysere, 2019).
For this reason, it is imperative that the international community finds a way to help Tunisia maintain their democracy. One of the actors, which can play one of the most decisive roles is the European Union, as it has the economic power to provide Tunisia with help. There are several ways in which the EU could help Tunisia. Firstly, both actors could establish bilateral partnerships, which could be very helpful for the Tunisian economy as they could be key for promoting economic diversification. Achieving a proper economic diversification would be crucial for Tunisia, due to the fact that at this moment, its economy is heavily dependent on state-owned companies, which operate particularly inefficiently, thus, diversifying the Tunisian economy would be central for starting its economic recovery. In order to do this, the EU and the Tunisian government should try to find ways to attract investment into the country, which would also be very helpful for reducing the mounting unemployment figures that the country is experiencing. It has been argued that one of the best ways to attract European investment into Tunisia, would be through progressively integrating the standards and procedures of Tunisia to the European ones. This would be key for providing European investment to sectors like agriculture or green energy. Nevertheless, the EU has already been trying for years to help the Tunisian economy in a very ineffective manner, therefore it is decisive that the EU and the Tunisian government revise their current relationship in order to learn from previous mistakes and develop a more comprehensive and effective strategy (Megerisi, 2021; Debuysere, 2019). What is more, in order to strengthen the Tunisian democracy it is essential to increase the transparency and the public’s role in the decision-making process. This could be a very effective strategy for reviving the democratic values in the segment of the population, which, as mentioned before has been looking at the autocratic past with nostalgia. Not only that, but it would also be a useful tool for receiving direct information from the population on what their priorities are. Moreover, in order to reinvigorate the civil society in Tunisia, and thus backing the democratic values of the country, it is imperative that the Tunisian government further increases its anticorruption efforts (Yerkes and Mbarek, 2021).
As it has been recently seen in the West, democratic values are very easily taken for granted, especially when economic problems start to arise, and the population starts giving importance to other issues. This is what is currently happening in Tunisia; therefore it is essential that the Tunisian government and international actors like the EU make the efforts needed in order to revert the situation and ensure that democracy in the country is maintained (Yerkes and Mbarek, 2021; Madan, 2021)
Bibliography:
- Debuysere, L. 2019. Tunisia: Should the EU do more? The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS).
- Democracy Digest (DemDigest). 2020. Why Tunisia’s transition succeeded. National Endowment for Democracy.
- Grewal, S. 2021. Ten years in, Tunisian democracy remains a work in progress. The Brookings Institution.
- Madan, S. 2021. 10 Years Later: How Tunisia Managed the Democratic Transition. Borgen Magazine. Retrieved on July 05, 2021, available at: https://www.borgenmagazine.com/tunisia-democratic-transition/
- Megerisi, T. 2021. Back from the brink: A better way for Europe to support Tunisia’s democratic transition. European Council on Foreign Relations.
- Reuters Staff. 2019. Timeline: Tunisia’s bumpy path to democracy. Reuters. Retrieved on July 05, 2021, available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tunisia-election-timeline-idUSKBN1WQ1EH
- Yerkes, S. and Mbarek, N. 2021. After Ten Years of Progress, How Far Has Tunisia Really Come? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
By Alvaro Perez Cardenes, The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
