By Mahmoud Refaat: The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
Last month, the President of the U.S. Joe Biden announced the withdrawal of all the remaining 2.500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September 11, the 20th anniversary of the al-Qaida terrorist attacks on New York and Washington (Borger & Sabbagh, 2021). A few days later however, Ankara was forced to postpone a much-anticipated Afghan peace conference in Istanbul until the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan due to the Taliban refusal to participate
“until all foreign forces were pulled out of Afghanistan” (Al Jazeera, 2021). This worrying development comes as a stalemate for the peace negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government that would ensure stability and peace for the war-torn country after the withdrawal of the international forces.
From the Mujahedeen to the Taliban
The persistent instability, the extended corruption and the thriving opium trade in Afghanistan can easily be explained by its turbulent history. Nicknamed as the “graveyard of the empires”, the country has been constantly under, or fighting against foreign intervention. From the Mughal and British empires to the Soviet rule and the recent withdrawal of the U.S. force, Afghanistan has stood up to its fame as a challenging region to govern. Nevertheless, the current situation of the country finds its roots to the Soviet invasion in 1979 and the war with the Mujahedeen that lasted until 1989. The Islamist extremist group, with the financial and military support of the U.S., Pakistan, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia pushed back the Soviet Red Army but it drove the country into a vicious civil war in the beginning of the 1990s. In this chaos, the newly formed Taliban movement, consisted mainly from Afghan Islamic clerics and students, mostly of rural, Pashtun origin and ex-Mujahedeen fighters, seized the opportunity and captured Kabul in 1996 and imposed the Sharia in areas it controlled and employed harsh punishments, including public executions, as well as bans on television, Western music, and dancing. It prohibited women from attending school or working outside the home, except in health care, and publicly executed some women for alleged adultery (Thomas, 2019; BBC, 2019).
Things changed rapidly after the 9/11 attack of Osama bin Laden in the US in 2001, when the latter under the G. W. Bush administration commenced its famous “war on terror” and attacked Afghanistan for hosting al Qaeda and its leader. More precisely, after the Taliban refusal to extradite Osama bin Laden, the U.S. launched military operations against the Taliban to “disrupt the use of Afghanistan as a terrorist base of operations and to attack the military capability of the Taliban regime” (Thomas, 2019).
The new conqueror
Under the UN Resolution 1368 and with the aid of the NATO alliance, Washington was involved in what it would be characterized as the “endless war” that tyrannizes Afghanistan for almost 20 years. Soon after the invasion, Afghan groups agreed in Bonn for an interim government and in 2004 the Loya Jirga (Consultative Assembly) adopted the new constitution which provided for strong presidency and henceforth Hamid Karzai (2004-2014), became the President of the country after the victory in the elections. During his presidency, NATO led the UN-mandated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) from August 2003 to December 2014. ISAF’s mission, which numbered 130.000 military personnel in 2011, was to enable the Afghan authorities and build the capacity of the Afghan national security forces to provide effective security, so as to ensure that Afghanistan would never again be a safe haven for terrorists (NATO, 2021). It also fought low level insurgent violence mainly in the south and east (Thomas, 2019). However, even with this immense military capabilities the Taliban continued to control some parts of the territory and Obama decided to decrease the U.S. military personnel and handover the security responsibility to the Afghan military (ANDSF). The doctrine was then followed by Trump Administration who decided to enter into direct negotiations with the Taliban in 2018 in Doha, without Afghan government representatives, aiming to end the conflict and prevent a resurgence of terrorist groups in the region. The strategy was successful and Taliban started negotiations with the government in Kabul for a peace deal in September 2020 (Graham, 2020). Thus, Biden’s move to withdraw all the US forces one year later was a calculated move, part ofthe wider American strategy of pulling out of Afghanistan.
An uncertain future
The war in Afghanistan has been devastating. The death toll rose up to more than 241.000 people, most of them being Afghan civilians, while thousand more died due to hanger, diseases and war injuries. Despite the modest gains in education, health and women’s rights after the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001, most Afghans continue to live in poverty and opium exports, the main source of income for the Taliban have been surging ever since (Al Jazeera, 2021). The U.S has spent more than 2.3 trillion US dollars to the campaign and more than 2 thousand marines have lost their lives (Jenkins, 2021). However the recent decision to withdraw their forces has been criticized as a negative development that could threaten the stability of the country.
For the current Afghan President Ashraf Ghani (2014-today) this is a moment of risk and opportunity (Ghani, 2021). On the one hand it is true that the U.S. and NATO withdrawal gives to the Taliban an opportunity to continue their operations and to try consolidate their power in the country, without facing an overwhelming force. On the other hand however as Ghani notes: “the Taliban’s justification for war—jihad against a foreign power—will cease to apply” and “they must answer critical questions about their vision for Afghanistan” (Ghani, 2021).
Therefore the international community and especially the United Nations and the U.S. should support Afghanistan after the coming September. First of all, it is important that Pakistan and Qatar to stop financing and equipping the Taliban. As Thomas (2019, p.19) underlines: “The neighbor that is considered most crucial to Afghanistan’s security is Pakistan, which has played an active and, by many accounts, negative role in Afghan affairs for decades. Experts and officials debate the extent of Pakistan’s commitment to Afghan stability in light of its attempts to exert control over events in Afghanistan through ties to insurgent groups. Reports on Afghanistan’s stability repeatedly have identified Afghan militant safe havens in Pakistan as a key threat to Afghan stability”. Therefore both the UN and the US could pursue a more dynamic strategy that would limit Pakistan’s and Qatar’s assistance to the Taliban forcing them into the negotiations table.
Secondly, the international community oughts to continue financing and equipping the Afghan national forces. Today the Taliban, which accounts about 50.000 fighters, is thought to control approximately 15% of the country and the government claims it controls about 50% with the remainder contested (Wakil & Pahnke, 2021). Therefore the financial and material support to the ANDSF is essential to retain the monopoly of power and to contain the Taliban if the negotiations fail.
Last but not least, after the potential peace deal, the UN should monitor and report on the future government formation or the elections process and ensure a smooth transition and the rights of women and minorities that may be threaten under a Taliban government.
Afghanistan has not experienced peace for the last 40 years. The withdrawal of the international forces and the peace talks could be the first step towards a stable and prosperous future for the country. However, the West must always be ready for the worst-case scenario and ensure its support for the Afghan government and guarantee that the country will avoid submerging into chaos once again.
References
Afghanistan: Visualizing the impact of 20 years of war. (2021). Al Jazeera. ccessed in 2021 May 10 from https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2021/afghanistan-visualising-impact-of-war/index.html
Afghanistan profile – Timeline. (2019 September 19). BBC. Accessed in 2021 May 10 from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-12024253
Borger, J., & Sabbagh, D. (2021 April 13). Biden to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by September 11. The Guardian. Accessed in 2021 May 10 from https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/13/biden-withdraw-troops-afghanistan-september-11
Ghani, A. (2021). Afghanistan’s Moment of Risk and Opportunity. Foreign Affairs
Graham, H. E. (2020 September 10). Afghan government to start peace talks with Taliban. Al Jazeera. Accessed in 2021 May 10 from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/10/afghan-government-to-start-peace-talks-with-taliban
Jenkins, S. (2021). What did 20 years of western intervention in Afghanistan achieve? Ruination. The Guardian. Accessed in 2021 May 10 from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/16/20-years-western-intervention-afghanistan-terror
NATO and Afghanistan. (2021 April 15). NATO. Accessed in 2021 May 10 from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_8189.htm
Thomas, C. (2019). Afghanistan: Background and U.S. Policy. Congressional Research Service
Turkey postpones Afghanistan peace summit over Taliban no-show. (2021 April 21). Al Jazeera. Accessed in 2021 May 10 from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/21/turkey-postpones-afghanistan-peace-summit-over-taliban-no-show
Wakil, M. & Pahnke, A. (2021 May 5). Peace is possible in Afghanistan. Al Jazeera. Accessed in 2021 May 10 from https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/5/5/peace-is-possible-in-afghanistan
