On the 21st of November 2021, regional and municipal elections took place in Venezuela, granting twenty-one over the twenty-three regions to the government’s party. Despite the general opinion of the international observers that the elections went smoothly, this election only highlighted more the major issues in Venezuela.
Does a smooth election means a democratical one?
For the first time since fifteen years, international observers such as EU observation mission, UN panel of electoral experts and experts from the carter center, observed how the elections took place in order to avoid any doubt on elections like for the last presidential election. The general overview indicated no breach of any elections’ rules. However, the broad democratical context in Venezuela does not allow fair and free elections. Indeed, dissents are arbitrarily arrested giving the number of two hundred and fifty political prisoners. Besides due to the lack of judiciary independence, the oppositions are diminished. In fact, the supreme court has a tendency to interfere in their leadership and internal structure. Lately, the supreme court barred the given winner candidate in Barinas region, because it considered him ineligible due to pending charges. It benefits a descendant of the Chavez’s family, who has its seat in this region. A new election will be held in January without the opposition’s candidate.
Moreover, in order for an election to be democratic it needs to be representative of people’s will. However, here, a high abstention rate of fifty-eight percent has been observed. Yet it seems that a vast majority of the forty-two percent of voters chose the government’s party. It is due mainly to the extreme division between the oppositions and the lost of credibility of the (former) interim president, Juan Guaido. Indeed, he has been recognized by fifty states as the official president of Venezuela due to the grave fraud noticed during the last presidential election in 2019. Nonetheless, during this time he did not manage to convince the venezuelians of a possible brighter future and lacked of clarity in his ideas. Thus, the parliamentary election of December 2020 made him loose his position of chief of the national assembly and loose the international trust put in him (the EU withdrew its support in January 2021). Again, this election his stained by abstention, so any interpretation is relative.
Therefore, even if no flagrant disruption or fraud occurred during the last election, it cannot be called a democratic election. It happened during a socioeconomic crisis and within a non-state of law discouraging many to not go to vote. Some interpret the international presence during the election as a bad move since it can only legitimize this election and strip international help of all credibility.
An international solution?
Until now, the international help, mainly the EU and the US did not suceeed in their mission. The EU, with a high representative, who seems to follow the spanish policy agenda, is perceived as incoherent and each member state shall state their purpose in this mission to finally get a strong and clear voice. As for the US, their economic sanctions against Venezuela has made more casualties than helped venezuelians. Indeed, it sanctions only the people and not the elite, who can still move themselves and their money freely.
The international block failed the opposition, by not protecting them and their family and not granting enough financial support to survive government’s attacks and make their claims heard. Moreover, they missed the opened window from last presidential election. The missed opportunity to get a new president, Juan Guaido, is their biggest mistake, since an opposition leader could have been democratically elected as president and the passation of power would have been legitimate. Besides, in order one day to hope for change, the international coalition needs to reinsure the elite. Amnesty and transitional justice shall be evoked to get the possibility of a peaceful transition. Finally, the US and the EU need to collaborate and find a common plan of action. If those two great powers are acting separately they would only create a cacophony and unmake the other’s efforts. For example, the US should have back up the negotiation in 2019 led by Norway to give more weight to it.
Another international action, which could bring some hope and justice to Venezuelians is the ICC’s investigation on crimes against humanity for the government actions during the anti-government protests in 2017. A first step has been made in 2020 when the ICC stated that it had reasonable basis to believe that crime against humanity (mainly arbitrarily detentions) have been committed.
Thus, an international structure is in place and can realistically be strenghtened by a powerful coalition despite the venezuelians government’s support by Iran, China and Russia. Improvement can be achieved if some coordination is brought into the international block.
Bibliography
Amnesty International ‘Venezuela: Further information: Defender remains detained, two released <https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/amr53/4923/2021/en/> accessed on the 29th December 2021
BBC ‘ICC to probe Venezuela over alleged crimes against humanity’ <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-59159025> accessed on the 29th of December 2021
Council on Foreign Relations ‘Lessons from the Failure of Democracy Promotion in Venezuela’ <https://www.cfr.org/article/lessons-failure-democracy-promotion-venezuela> accessed on the 29th of December 2021
Council on Foreign Relations ‘EU’s Top Diplomat Ignores His Staff and Insists on Observing Venezuela’s Elections’ <https://www.cfr.org/blog/pandora-papers-put-headlines-over-fair-treatment-0> accessed on the 29th of December 2021
France Info ‘Venezuela: victoire en trompe-l’oeil pour le président Maduro lors des élections régionales’ <https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-radio/un-monde-d-avance/venezuela-victoire-en-trompe-l-oeil-pour-le-president-maduro-lors-des-elections-regionales_4837035.html> accessed on the 29th of December 2021
Human Rights Watch ‘EU election Monitors can play a crucial role in venezuela’ <https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/11/20/eu-election-monitors-can-play-crucial-role-venezuela> accessed on the 29th of December 2021
ICC ‘Investigations-Venezuela’ <https://www.icc-cpi.int/venezuela> accessed on the 29th of December 2021
Le Figaro ‘L’UE ne reconnaît plus Juan Guaido comme président légitime du Venezuela’ <https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/l-ue-ne-reconnait-plus-juan-guaido-comme-president-legitime-du-venezuela-20210125> accessed on the 29th of December 2021
Le Figaro ‘Venezuela: la justice demande une deuxième élection dans le fief de Chavez’ <https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/venezuela-la-justice-demande-une-deuxieme-election-dans-le-fief-de-chavez-20211130> accessed on the 29th of December 2021
The Carter Center ‘Carter center expert mission issues preliminary report on Venezuela’ regional and municipal elections’ <https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/2021/venezuela-120321.html> accessed on the 29th of december
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
