Since a few months, the tension between China and Taiwan increased drastically, which did not help to ease the US-China’s relationship. Mid-2020 China started to send daily military aircraft flyover near Taiwan’s coasts. It raised international concerns on a potential and imminent attack by China over Taiwan, and by normalizing such threat over Taiwan, China is trying to keep its surprise effect in case of attack. Yet, it seems that both parties and the US are willing to keep the status quo or at least defending peace.
The US involvment in an internal conflict?
This rivalry between China and Taiwan started in 1949 when the communist party won the civil war, compelling the former government to flee the mainland to Taiwan. Since then, Taiwan declares itself as independent, whereas China dreams ‘rejuvenation’ of reunifying both ‘systems’, as Taiwan is seen as a different system but the same country. Despite the international recognition of China in 1979, the US signed an agreement with Taiwan: the Taiwan relations act, recognizing its right of collective self defense. In order to strive Taiwan towards this objective, the US provide Taiwan with defense articles and services and has spent since 2010 tweny-three billions dollars in military armament and in August has sold arms for seven hundred fifty millions dollars.
Nonetheless, if the US are helping that much Taiwan it is not without ulterior motives. Indeed, the US try to prevent the expansion of power of China throughout the pacific, which would allow them to control the key shipping lanes and dominates Taiwan’s economy. This economy prosperity, Taiwain ownes it thanks to its chip dominance. Only two companies own the knowhow, and one of them is a taiwanese, supplying Apple and other US companies. Therefore, the US involvment in this conflict is due to military, economic and hegemonial interests.
Is the conflict really internal?
In addition of the US involvement in the conflict, the issue also touches upon international law. Indeed, according the 1933 Montevideo convention, Taiwan is a state on its own since it has a permanent population of twenty-four millions inhabitants, a defined territory, a government and the capacity to enter into relation with states. However, the last criteria has been defined through two theories, one grating the statute of state to Taiwan and the another one requesting international recognition. Originally, Taiwan has been recognized by fifteen small states (now forteen since Nicaragua withdrawal this month), which could have been enough without the loss of its seat at the UN in 1971 and the US displaced its recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979. Nevertheless, Taiwan is today one of the best democracy in the world and internationally involved. For example it has been invited by the US president to the summit on Democracy and a banch of representants of important countries visited Taiwan (US secretaries, european parliamenties and french senators). The question remains if those unofficial relations are enough to call Taiwan an independent state despite the duality of those relations. Indeed, all those countries recognize officially China as a. state but by fear of retaliation by the second most important economy in the world, they do not dare to speak out. The official status would be a cornerstone element in case of an attack. If one look officially the status, the attack by China could be considered as a civil war or internal insurrection, but the right of self defence could only be used in case of Taiwan being recognized as a State.
What if a conflict burst?
China stated recently that its main preoccupation concerning Tawain is the reunification, peacefully possibly and if provocation and a red line is crossed, it will not hesitate to use force. What could be considered as red lines? Demonstrations pro-democracy? Running a democratic election? Having new diplomatical relations such as in Lithuania? Taiwan is under chinese attacks for a while now (cyberattack, economic pressure, international isolation) and never told about any retaliation. The first military step has been taken by China with its flights near the taiwanese borders.
Nonetheless, an attack is possible and the international support is unsure. The US act passively or behind doors without affirming loudly its support for Taiwan, even if its allies (Australia and Japan) already stated their support to US actions in case of an attack.
Besides this status quo is lasting since 2003 and if it was breached it would be by China, which would then disrupt international peace and security,a breach to the UN convention. However, a military backup is less than likely due to the impressive chinese military force, its economy and the chaos it would throw the world in, if the two most powerful states would happen to fight. Besides, the US are well-known for walking away from commitments that become too costly or risky (Afghanistan and Vietnam).
Therefore remains only the diplomacy alternative, which is not the most realistic one. Indeed, considering the US-China relationship tensed due to China’s militarization of the South China Sea, its unfair trade practices, the internal growing repression and the economic coercion of the countries in the area. Furthermore, for diplomacy and a useful dialogue it needs to make abstraction of the chinese nationalism, the anti-China sentinement in the US and the growing Taiwan identity. Besides, other interests muscle in the conflict, such as those targeted also by the US. An internal conflict become again an international one, for the best on the side of Taiwan needing any help which can be provided, but on the side of international peace and security this dichotomy of interests is leading us to an unsolvable conflict. Taiwan needs the help from the US to build its defense capacities as provided in the act but in order to avoid any international economy and military backfire, it needs an international coordination to ascertain partners and allies.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Brookings ‘The status quo in the Taiwan Strait is edging toward conflict. Here’s how to stop it’ <https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/11/24/the-status-quo-in-the-taiwan-strait-is-edging-toward-conflict-heres-how-to-stop-it/> accessed on the 28th December 2021
Council on Foreign Relations ‘Why. China-Taiwan Relations Are so Tense’ <https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy> accessed on the 28th of December 2021
Council on Foreign Relations ‘The Taiwan Triangle’ <https://www.cfr.org/article/taiwan-triangle> accessed on the 28th of December 2021
Council on Foreign Relations ‘Does Taiwan Have the Right of Self-Defense?’ <https://www.cfr.org/article/does-taiwan-have-right-self-defense> accessed on the 28th of December 2021
La Croix ‘Taïwan perd des ambassades, mais gagne des alliés’ <https://www.la-croix.com/Monde/Taiwan-perd-ambassades-gagne-allies-2021-12-10-1201189541> accessed on the 28th of December 2021
Voanews ‘What will Taiwan do if China invades?’ <https://www.voanews.com/a/what-will-taiwan-do-if-china-invades/6360122.html> accessed on the 28th of December 2021
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
