Since 1801, when Ireland became part of the United Kingdom, the natives Irish Catholics have kept fighting for independence because they considered the British as illegitimate rulers of their land. Following the Irish War of Independence of 1921, Ireland was separated between the Republic of Ireland, largely Catholic and nationalist, who pushed for independence and obtained it, and Northern Ireland, as part of the United Kingdom. The question of Irish unification has been a longstanding issue: in recent years, the conversation around unification has gained more and more popularity and seems to become soon a reality.
Irish unification has two major accelerators: the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, and the economic success of the Republic of Ireland. Brexit has certainly changed not only external dynamics, but internal as well, undermining the political cohesion and economic progress: 56% of Northern Ireland citizens voted to remain in the EU, so following the results, it was clear that a shift away from Britain happened, while ties with the Republic of Ireland were strengthened. For instance, following the 2016 Brexit’s approval, the political party Sinn Féin, which has been advocating for a united Ireland, pushed for a referendum in both parts of the country to have a centralised government unity. Although it has yet to happen, the country’s political direction is clear.
Economically, unification poses both challenges and opportunities. Northern Ireland currently receives significant financial support from the UK government, and many unionists fear that a united Ireland might struggle to replace these subsidies. However, supporters of unification argue that integrating Northern Ireland into the Republic’s economy could bring long-term benefits, particularly in trade and investment, considering also the great economic performance of the Republic of Ireland in the last decade.
So far, the Northern Ireland Protocol negotiated by the EU authorities and the UK government avoids the imposition of hard borders on the island and de facto ensures full access to the EU single market for goods. The unique position of Northern Ireland has created economic opportunities and has avoided isolation for European markets, however, it is obvious that its full potential is restrained due to regulatory ties to the UK.
From a social point of view, there is a clear shift of positions in the whole island: historically, Protestant majority identified themselves as British supporters and strongly advocated to close ties with the UK, but recent survey conducted by Sinn Féin has shown that Catholics, who are generally more likely to support unification, now make up a larger share of the population. Additionally, younger generations in Northern Ireland are growing up in a more globalized and less religious society, prioritizing economic stability and social progress over traditional unionist or nationalist loyalties. This makes them more prone to the idea of a stable future for a reunified Ireland within the EU,
While the possibility of Irish unification is becoming more conceivable, significant obstacles remain. A referendum would need to be called not only on the Irish territory, but also by the UK government based on clear evidence of a majority in favor of unification. Even if a vote were held, both Northern Ireland and the Republic would need to carefully navigate the political, economic, and social complexities of merging two different systems, such as the creation of a single government unity. Nonetheless, the unification of Ireland really seems a realistic possibility. Shifts in political perceptions, the possibility of economic growth, the full integration into the EU mechanisms, are signs that Irish citizens might be ready to cut ties with the UK in favour of a single Irish nation.
By The European Institute for International Relations
