The southern part of the island of Madagascar, off the east coast of Africa, is experiencing a serious drought, that combined with the Covid-19 crisis has lead to a humanitarian crisis. The catastrophe is occurring as a result of three years of drought in the region, which has resulted in the country’s worst drought in 40 years.
What is the situation?
Madagascar’s economy is dominated by the services sector, contributing 52.1% to the country’s GDP in 2019, followed by the agricultural sector with 23.3 % and the industrial sector with 17.2 % (World Bank, 2019). Even though services exceed the agriculture sector, agriculture employs around 80% of the people, which strongly rely on agriculture for sustaining food security and livelihood security. Agricultural production in Madagascar is primarily subsistence-based and rainfed and extreme weather events, such as droughts, cyclones, and floods occurring on the island endangers the people’s subsistence (FAO, 2020). As a result, concerns about the growing effects of climate change, such as rising temperatures and lower water availability due to shifting precipitation, are increasing (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2020). Limited adaptive capacity in the agricultural sector, such as limited access to agricultural inputs, formal credit, or extension services, also underlines Madagascar’s vulnerability to climate change. (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2020).
According to the WFP, around 1.14 million people in the south of Madagascar, that is 42 percent of the population, are facing serious food insecurity, with 14,000 of those in a “catastrophe” situation, that is, the highest in the five-step scale of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (Unicef, 2021).
More than 16% of children aged from 6 to 59 months are suffering from Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM), a percentage that has doubled over the last four months (WFP, 2021) and which includes 2.6% of the children with Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM), which is over the emergency levels. (Unicef, 2021)
The degradation of the nutrition situation could be associated with the delayed initiation of food assistance and cash transfer support caused by the initial lack of funding for scaling up the response, including its insufficient coverage in many districts as half-food ration and insufficient cash amount may not cover households’ basic needs. The nutrition crisis, along with significant food insecurity and a perilous WASH scenario, is anticipated to worsen further in the coming months, as the hunger gap is expected to begin earlier this year due to a lack of rain and lower-than-average harvests for 2021(Unicef, 2021).
The humanitarian situation was aggravated by the COVID19 containment measures’ negative socioeconomic repercussions, which resulted in the disruption of the market supply chain and price rises for basic consumables. As consequence, many vulnerable families were compelled to sell their productive assets to buy food, forcing them to resort to maladaptive coping techniques. Hunger is driving people to eat raw cactus, wild leaves, and locusts, a food source of last resort (United Nations news, 2021).
Insecurity in the south, as well as the reappearance of several crops and animal pests and diseases – including a fresh epidemic of Rift Valley fever (RVF) and the looming threat of migratory locusts – have exacerbated the region’s food insecurity (FAO, 2020).
While internal seasonal migration used to be common, recurring droughts, especially in southern Madagascar, continue to drive more permanent migration from affected areas to other parts of the country, particularly cities. As a result, Madagascar’s urban population is growing rapidly (IOM Madagascar, 2019).
Climate change impacts are expected to harm the country’s biodiversity as well as its population. Because of its geographic location, Madagascar is regularly hit by intense cyclones that destroy ecosystems and infrastructure, especially along the coasts, and climate change is expected to increase both the number and intensity of these events. (USAID, 2021). Increases in the number of extreme events can reduce the quality of life, especially for those without adequate housing (Davis-Reddy and Vincent, 2017)
Furthermore, rainfall patterns in some parts of the country will intensify, resulting in increased erosion and flooding, while rainfall in the south will decrease and become more unpredictable (USAID, 2021). The majority of the population of Madagascar depends on surface water and the water supply is strongly dependent on the rainfall regime, therefore, it will be especially vulnerable to any changes in the climate, including predicted yearly rainfall losses and increasing evapotranspiration. In addition, changes in rainfall may diminish forage quality and quantity, as well as rangeland carrying capacity. Changing climatic circumstances may also affect plant distribution and phenology, prompting farmers to adapt their operations and replenish feed supplies. (Rakotondravony et al., 2018; Thornton et al., 2015)
Finally, the rise in sea levels is also a worry. Currently, 27% of people live below 100 meters above sea level (Davis-Reddy and Vincent, 2017). According to the WHO, 573,200 people are expected to be impacted by a sea-level rise between 2070 and 2100 if major investments in adaptation are not made (World Health Organization, 2016). In particular, Madagascar’s relative sea level is anticipated to rise by 20 to 50 cm, potentially increasing saltwater levels which will also worsen the availability of water resources (Rakotondravony et al., 2018). Rising sea levels surrounding Madagascar would expose communities and environments to increased cyclonic and flooding devastation and may force people to migrate. (USAID, 2021)
What is the international response?
Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, wealthy nations committed to set aside $100 billion per year in climate financing to help developing countries adapt. However, this objective has not been fulfilled for the moment. Donors were still short $20 billion in 2018, the most recent year for which data is available (Baker, 2021).
On the other hand, several international organizations and NGOs call for financial aid to palliate the humanitarian crisis in the short term.
The United Nations World Food Programme appeals for funds to address the hunger situation. In particular, the WFP is requesting $78.6 million to provide life-saving food for the next lean season.
Given the significant loss of livelihoods and reduced access to food experienced by vulnerable households, providing them with seeds, tools, and other essential inputs is critical in improving agricultural activities so that food can be produced quickly, income can be generated, and their resilience can be strengthened.
Additionally, UNICEF is requesting US$ 34.2 million to reach 2.6 million people, including 1.3 million children, affected by epidemics, cyclones or floods, and drought, with life-saving assistance in 2021. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations is also requesting US$ 40.4 million for the provision of inputs for cereal and vegetable production as well as for the provision of fishing inputs and processing equipement (FAO, 2021).
In 2020, the United States provided $133.5 million to Madagascar, including $74.5 million for the health sector where the United States is the largest single-country donor. Since 2015, USAID has committed over $229 million for emergency and development assistance to southern and southeastern Madagascar.
In response to the current drought, the EU is also helping address food and nutrition needs in the affected areas. In 2021, the EU has allocated €12 million in humanitarian funding to Madagascar, including €5 million of additional funding for addressing food insecurity.
However, in the long term, the country will need huge investments including irrigation systems, roads, and much more to stem the hunger and the climate change crisis.
Biobliography:
European Comission (June 2021), European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations: Madagascar.
Baker, A. (July 2021), “Climate, Not Conflict. Madagascar’s Famine is the First in Modern History to be Solely Caused by Global Warming”, Time, available at: https://time.com/6081919/famine-climate-change-madagascar/
Famine Early Warning Systems Network (2021), “Madagascar, Food Security Outlook”.
Favretto, N., Afionis, S., Stringer, L., Dougill, A., Quinn, C., Ranarijaona, H., (May 2020), “Delivering Climate-Development Co-Benefits through Multi-Stakeholder Forestry Projects in Madagascar: Opportunities and Challenges”, Land nº 9.
Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, (2021) “Climate Risk Profile: Madagascar”.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (May 2021), “Southern Madagascar: Response overview”.
Global Drought Observatory of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (January 2021), “GDO Analytical Report”.
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (December 2020) “Madagascar Grand South and Grand South East”.
IOM Madagascar Annual Report 2020
UNICEF (2021) “Madagascar Grand Sud Situation Update No. 1”.
UNICEF (June 2021), “Madagascar”, available at: www.unicef.org/appeals/madagascar
United Nations News (January, 2021) “Humanitarian crisis looms in Madagascar amid drought and pandemic”, available at: https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1081892
USAID (June 2021) “Madagascar: Environment and Climate change”, available at: https://www.usaid.gov/madagascar/environment
World Food Programme of the United Nations, (May 2021), “Southern Madagascar: Government and UN sound the alarm on famine risk, urge action”, available at: https://www.wfp.org/news/southern-madagascar-government-and-un-sound-alarm-famine-risk-urge-action
World Bank, “World Bank Development Indicators,” 2019. Available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world- development-indicators
By Blanca Prat: The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
