The Republic of Cuba has been organized through a communist political system since 1959 based on the “one state, one party” principle. Actually, the Cuban Constitution, approved in 2019 through a referendum, protects the role of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) by providing that it is “the leading force of society and of the state” and as such, it has the exclusive faculty to set the national policy. The Cuban government, particularly the ideas of revolutionary leader Fidel Castro, has had the support of the Cuban people for many decades. The last time that there was a massive protest against the Cuba’s Government was in 1994, the so-called “Maleconazo”, in the midst of the crises of the “special period”, when hundreds of people took to the streets of Havana and did not leave until the then Cuban leader Fidel Castro arrived. The presence of Fidel Castro and the repression of a “rapid response group” made up of police and brigades put down the demonstration. But back then, many Cubans in other provinces didn’t even know what had happened in the capital.
On July 11, 2021, a demonstration began with thousands of people protesting across the island against the Cuban government. Almost 30 years later, the scenario is very different, there is no longer a charismatic or “historical” leadership like that of Fidel Castro and there is something that did not exist at that time, social networks and internet. The protest is the result of the precarious economic situation and the extreme health crisis in Cuba. However, the demonstrator’s call for “Abajo la dictadura” (stop dictatorships) and “patria y vida” (instead of “patria y muerte”) seems to reflect the opposition of the Cuban people to the new government presided by Miguel Díaz-Canel, “elected” on 18 April 2019 after the resignation of Raúl Castro.
What are the triggers of the protest?
The crucial trigger of the Cuban protest is the Covid 19 pandemic which has lead the country depleted of essential resources. Cuba had very low infection rates during 2020. However, since January, the spread of the virus has accelerated a lot within the country. In addition to the precarious supply situation, there is also a tense epidemiological situation, which is breaking the contagion records at this moment. The Cuban commitment to self-sufficiency by creating its own vaccine and therefore rejecting all imported vaccines is a high-risk strategy. Actually, the administration of the vaccine is limited to some provinces and there are not enough doses for all the population. Over the past week, the country has broken its daily records of contagion and deaths, leading to the collapse of numerous health centers. As a result, messages under the hashtags #SOSCuba and #SOSMatanzas have flooded social media to ask for international help and an “humanitarian intervention” to the critical situation with the coronavirus on the island.
Thousands of Cubans joined the initiative, while several videos of collapsed hospitals went viral.
In addition to the serious health situation, the Covid crisis has had economic consequences that also destabilize the country. One of the main drivers of the Cuban economy is tourism, however, it has been paralyzed by the pandemic. In order to combat the economic situation, at the beginning of the year, the government proposed a new package of economic reforms consisting of a rise of wages. However, this increase in wages has led to boost prices and therefore, has increased the inflation rate. In that sense, economists like Pavel Vidal of Javeriana University in Cali, estimate that they could rise between 500% and 900% in the coming months.
Moreover, given the lack of foreign exchange liquidity, the government has since 2020 promoted the creation of shops for freely convertible currencies, in which food and basic necessities are available to be sold in a currency in which the majority of the population does not receive their wages. However, last month, the government decided to stop accepting “temporarily” dollars in cash, the main currency that Cubans receive in remittances.
The economic consequences can be seen in the streets of Cuba where there are large queues in front of supermarkets and pharmacies. In addition, the lack of electricity has led to power outages during six hours a day. The failure to supply the market under reasonable commercial conditions and the scarcity of food, medicines and commodities are deteriorating the living conditions of Cuban people.
Since the beginning of the fiscal year, last October, the United States Coast Guard has intercepted more than 512 Cubans at sea, compared to the 49 the year before. This is another factor reflecting the economic crisis in Cuba.
What are the protesters demanding?
In this context, the first demonstration began in San Antonio de los Baños, near to la Havana in the province of Santiago de Cuba and rapidly extended around the island due to social networks. At the beginning, it was a matter of hunger. Cubans claimed for food and medicines, they claimed for more vaccines because of the pandemic situation. However, what had begun as a hungry protest, it has become a political protest against the Cuban regime with people singing «Patria y Vida», an iconic song for the opposition to Castroism. Although there are only thousands of people who took the streets calling for freedom, the importance relies on the fact that there has not been such a protest since 1994. In Cuba, freedom of expression only exists within the framework of the goals of the communist ideology. There is no freedom of organization, assembly or expression for the opponents of the regime, which are perceived as a subversion of the order.
The government’s response was rapid and repressive. In face of the growing spread of the protests, the Internet service was cut and the calls began to show instability, a digital «blackout» of several hours to prevent the images from becoming viral. Miguel Díaz-Canel, the president of the Republic of Cuba, appeared on the State television urging his supporters to go out into the streets ready for «combat».
Is the protest related or against the new government of Miguel Díaz-Canel?
It has been argued that the change in the leadership of Cuba with the actual President not being part of the Castro’s family is a source of instability. However, Cuba’s dominant coalition has not fractured during the leadership change process due to a series of cohesion, control and selection mechanisms that have allowed the original group to be renewed (Sanchez, 2020). The changes in the structure of the executive branch and in its members have not led to any major changes since the PCC and the FAR have control over social, political and economic resources. This implies that the government has little margin for manoeuvre and limited decision-making not only because it does not have assets, but because it must agree with other bodies of power. The success of the Cuban regime lies in a strict procedure of control and sanctions that has prevented the entry into the dominant coalition of representatives of sectors that can create division or criticism from the interior. To this end, the new Constitution has articulated a system of incorporation of new leaders based on meritocracy and political loyalty that has allowed to change everything so that nothing. As a result, it has been possible to move from a system based on strong charismatic leadership to a system of bureaucratic socialism.
Conclusion
Cuban protests are a direct consequence of the economic and health crisis. They are the result of a context of poverty where there is lack of energy supply, food and medicines jointly with the claim for vaccines and the rise of inflation which accentuates the economic crisis. Even if during the protests, the demonstrators called for democracy and showed their opposition to the communist regime, it cannot be concluded that its aim is to overthrow the government, instead, the cause leading to instability is poverty, the main claim is for sanitary reasons. There are less than a thousand people protesting against the dictatorship and the government powers are more than consolidated to put in danger the communist regime at this moment.
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Declaration of the President of Cuba, Miguel íaz Canel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vPZWMXikRE
By Mahmoud Refaat: The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
