Lebanon is a small but ethnically diverse country located on the eastern coast of Mediterranean. During the past two decades, Lebanon has undergone turbulent times including civil war, military intervention, Israeli occupation, economic crisis, internal conflicts (Winslow, 2012). During the period of civil war, 1975–90, Lebanon was severely attacked by the violence that pervaded the country. Its economic and infrastructural development was badly damaged alongside with social and demographic conditions that resulted in war-induced internal and international population movements (Faour, 2007). The seed of the conflict was embodied in Lebanon’s history and the political confessional system that was formalized by the National Pact in 1943 (Soffer, A. 1986). The National Pact recognized the diversity of the Lebanese population and distributed ruling power on confessional system (Ghosn and Khoury, 2011). As a result, all positions — legislative, executive, judicial, as well as those of the civil service — were allocated along confessional lines, with the top three positions in the country distributed as follows: the President, a Maronite Christian; the Prime Minister, a Sunni Muslim; and the President of the National Assembly, a Shi’a Muslim (ibid).
Over time, the National Pact proved to be ineffective in a sense to meet the demands of demographic changes in the country. A significant portion of the Lebanese population wanted to modify the distribution of power in the Lebanese political system while other groups demanded the abolishment of sectarianism and the creation of a new political system based on secularism and equity (ibid). The internal domestic tensions over political power-sharing structure, economic inequalities and disparities, combined with external conflicts pertaining to the Israelis and Palestinians, led to the outbreak of war on April 13, 1975 (Ghosn and Khoury, 2011).
Despite, several mediation attempts by the third parties including the United Nations, the Arab League, and the United States, the war could not stop until it reached the momentum in the late 1980s and early 1990s when the Document of National Reconciliation was signed on October 22, 1989 in Ta’if, Saudi Arabia. The agreement further institutionalized the sectarian division within the government by introducing some reforms to the existing political system through a new power-sharing agreement that gave the Muslims a greater role in the political process (ibid). In addition to those reforms, the Ta’if Accord aimed at extending and strengthening governmental sovereignty over all Lebanese territory by calling for the withdrawal of all foreign forces and the dissolution and disarmament of the militias.
From then on, Lebanon is struggling to find a balance in power sharing system. The post conflict repercussions have led to the fragile conditions in Lebanon, the political and economic environment has never been promising. During the recent years, Lebanese have witnessed dramatic decline of GDP and a high inflation, poor living conditions and humanitarian tragedy that has placed Lebanon in desperate circumstances.
Economically, Lebanon is undergoing a severe, continuous depression. Real GDP growth contracted by 20.3% in 2020 and inflation reached triple digits, while the exchange rate keeps losing value (World Bank in Lebanon). Poverty is rising sharply, unemployment stands at 25%, public debt-to-gross domestic product is the third highest in the world (BBC 2020, “Why the country is in Crisis”). These add to dysfunctional electricity sector, water supply shortages, and inadequate solid waste and wastewater management—as well as a weak public financial mismanagement, large macroeconomic imbalances, and deteriorating social indicators (The World Bank in Lebanon). Lebanon’s economy has long been depended on a regular in-flow of US dollar. Over the last 10 years, as economic growth slowed and remittances from the Lebanese diaspora have decreased, the quantity of dollars in circulation has declined (Human Rights Watch Report, 2021). Furthermore, Covid-19 pandemic has deteriorated citizens’ access to basic goods including food, shelter, and healthcare. The Hospitals still struggling to provide patients with urgent and necessary life-saving medical care due to the government’s failure to provide private and public hospitals with the funds it owes them (Human Rights Watch Report, 2021). In May, the Lebanese government began negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to develop a plan for rescuing economy and requested around US$10 billion dollars in aid. However, the negotiations stalled when politicians failed to agree on the size of the country’s financial losses (Human Rights Watch Report, 2021).
The conditions in Lebanon turned even worse in 2020 after a devastating explosion in Beirut on August 4, that killed at least 200 people and injured about 5,000 others (BBC 2020, “Lebanon: why the country is in crisis”). The force of the blast did tremendous damage to the surrounding neighborhoods and nearby buildings. The homes of tens of thousands of people were damaged by the blast (ibid).
Politically, the country is in power struggle state. Following Beirut Port explosion, the Lebanese government resigned amid anti-governmental demonstrations and public anger. Many blamed the government in negligence to store the ammonium nitrate safely that had led to the explosion. Demonstrators were calling for removal of the entire political class and a restructuring of the country’s political system, flourished with corruption. According to Transparency International’s 2019 Corruption Perceptions Index, Lebanon ranked 137th out of 180 countries (being the worst). As the watchdog says corruption “permeates all levels of society” in Lebanon, with political parties, parliament and the police perceived as “the most corrupt institutions of the country” (Anti-Corruption Resource Center). The watchdog further indicated that Lebanon’s confessional power-sharing arrangements fuels patronage networks and clientelism, which undermines further the country’s governance system (ibid). Human Rights Watch report (2021) underlines multiple structural discrimination of women and children under the religion-based personal status laws, and child marriage. Women’s discrimination includes inequality in access to divorce, child custody, and inheritance and property rights.
Lebanon is a home of one million Syrian refugees according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) who face multiple discriminations. Lebanon’s residency policy for refugees makes it difficult for Syrians to maintain legal status, heightening risks of exploitation and abuse and restricting refugees’ access to work, education, and healthcare (Human Rights Watch Report, 2021). Lebanon is incapable of coping with the refugee crisis and to provide security despite the support given by the international community. Thirty-six countries pledged €253 million (around $298 million) for emergency support to Lebanon after the Port explosion during a donor conference co-led by France and the United Nations on August 9 (Reuters, 2020 “Donors pledge 253 million euros in emergency aid for Lebanon after blast”).
However, the Lebanese leaders are not ready to implement reforms and introduce policies, partly because Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia maintain a strong influence on Lebanese politics through local allies. Iran’s proxy Hezbollah – a Shiite Muslim political party and militant group – has gained an extensive authority over military, security and social services in Lebanon. Hezbollah controls much of Lebanon’s Shiite-majority areas, including parts of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the eastern Bekaa Valley region. Hezbollah strongly opposes Israel and Western powers. Iran as the main ally of Hezbollah, continues to support financially and weaponry (Council on Foreign Relations, 2020) and has a leverage to manipulate the internal politics in Lebanon.
The picture is definitely alarming in Lebanon. According to caretaker Prime Minster Hassan Diab “”Lebanon is a few days away from the social explosion” (CNN, 2021. “Lebanon is days away from a social explosion”). Much depends on the actions of regional and international community to take a step and to rescue Lebanon from the crisis.
References
BBC (2020), “Lebanon: why the country is in crisis”. Accessed 10 July 2021 <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-53390108>.
BBC 2020, “Why the country is in Crisis”, accessed 10 July 2021 <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-53390108>
CNN (2021), “Lebanon is days away from a social explosion”, accessed 10 July 2021 <https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/06/middleeast/lebanon-social-explosion-prime-minister-intl/index.html)>.
Council on Foreign Relations (2020), “What is Hezbollah”, accessed 10 July 2021 <https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah>.
Faour, M. A. (2007). Religion, demography, and politics in Lebanon. Middle Eastern Studies, 43(6), 909-921).
Ghosn, F., & Khoury, A. (2011). Lebanon after the civil war: peace or the illusion of peace?. The Middle East Journal, 65(3), 381-397.
Human Rights Watch (2021), Lebanon events, accessed 10 July 2021 <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-security-blast-conference-idUSKCN255099>.
Soffer, A. (1986). Lebanon–where demography is the core of politics and life. Middle Eastern Studies, 22(2), 197-205.
The World Bank in Lebanon, accessed 10 July 2021 <https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/lebanon/overview>.
Winslow, C. (2012). Lebanon: war and politics in a fragmented society. Routledge.
By Nino Zotikishvili: The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
