Diplomatic relations between the United States and Hungary goes back to 1921, when the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy dissolved at the end of World War I. Since then, mutual relations between the two countries have experienced many ups and downs. During World War II, Hungary allied with Nazi-Germany and the cooperation with the United States stalled. Following 1945, the two countries tried to restore relations but it did not last long as the Soviet forces entered Hungary and established the communist regime for decades. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, there was a new era in US-Hungary relations.
The United States provided assistance and expertise to support Hungary in its transition to a democratic political system and a free-market economy (U.S Relations with Hungary 2021). With the active support of the U.S., Hungary managed to join the multilateral institutions such as NATO coalition in 1999 and the EU in 2004.
Within the framework of the bilateral development assistance signed after 2004, the United States provides security assistance to Hungary through Foreign Military Financing (FMF), International Military Education & Training (IMET), and other capacity-building funds such as Peacekeeping Operations (PKO)-funded Global Defense Reform Program, which advises the Hungarian Defense Forces on joint and operational planning (U.S Relations with Hungary 2021). The U.S. financial contribution in Hungary’s economy is also significant. Hungary’s strategic location in Europe and access to EU market has been attracting the United States’ direct investments. Between 1989 and 1999 the U.S. was the leading investor in Hungary, providing more than $7 billion out of the overall $23 billion FDI in the country (Csizmazia 2019:81; Lyles et al 1996 ). As a result, Hungary became the 64th largest partner of the U.S. and the U.S. being Hungary’s 6th largest trading partner (ibid).
There’s nothing surprising that the political relations between these two countries is directly related to the United States’ foreign policy. During George W. Bush’s administration, the United State’s foreign policy gained some new trends, particularly, the US started to push unilateral actions and a “coalition of the willing” (Csizmazia 2019:85). President Bush called for a major initiative to give the emerging democracies the necessary tools to build free and open societies. This became the Support for Eastern European Democracy (SEED) program with a special congressional appropriation of $285 million (CULL 2010). Hungary was still the focal ally of the U.S. in the eastern Europe. Following Obama administration, the U.S did not maintain a positive relation with Hungary’s president Orbán, instead president Obama started to openly criticize his rule including violation of democratic norms, suspected tolerance to corruption and restriction of freedom of speech, undermining civil institutions and engaging in various forms of repression (Carpenter 2017). A noticeable cooling of bilateral relations during the administration of Barack Obama was the result of the implementation of the illiberal concept in the Hungarian political system (Kurucz 2020). The populist-nationalist regime exercised under Orbán government began introducing economic and political measures that combined an uncompromising, ethnicist–populist rhetoric with policies that nominally went against the country’s previous neoliberal and pro-Western course (Fabry 2019). This rhetoric found a well resonance with president Trump’s victory in 2016 and his “populist brand of nationalism” (Carpenter 2017). The preference for nationalism and power over democracy in Donald Trump’s policy has created the preconditions for a turnaround in Hungarian-US relations. Donald Trump often expressed praise on Hungarian prime minister’s policies on “fighting against illegal migration, on terrorism, and to protect and help Christian communities all around the world” (The Guardian 2019). Although both leaders had a similar approach to migration policy and they were linked by populist rhetoric aimed at liberal elites and international organizations, which were described as enemies of the nation, however, they did not in fact strengthen bilateral relations in many areas. In fact, Hungary was still following a rigid foreign policy and blocking high-level NATO-Ukraine talks, justifying it by the dispute over the situation of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. Hungary never hesitated to strengthen economic cooperation with Russia and China. Although Hungary considers purchasing gas from Romanian reserves in the Black Sea, it also considers Russia to be a reliable supplier of energy resources; therefore, Hungary supports the construction of the Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream pipelines, which are meant to supply Russian gas to Central Europe, bypassing Ukraine (The Polish Institute of International Affairs 2021). Moreover, Russia is funding and building a major expansion of Hungary’s nuclear power station at Paks (BBC 2021). In the perception of the Hungarian authorities, Chinese investments do not constitute a threat. Orban’s government gave a green light to the Chinese company Huawei regarding the construction of the 5G network, and the Chinese Fudan University is to open a campus in Budapest for around 6,000 students, co-financed by the Hungarian state at around €2.3 million (EURACTIV 2021).
Considering Hungary’s political maneuverings, the further developments of the US-Hungary relations seem to be precarious and complicated. The fact is that, the Hungarian prime minister has lost a most important point of reference and his main support in carrying out right-wing populist policy with Trump’s defeat. The United States’ main interest is to achieve Hungary’s coherent NATO approach to Ukraine, to reduce the political and economic influence of Russia and China and to achieve diversification of energy sources. However, these interests do not directly correspond to Hungary’s political intentions. Viktor Orban is pleased to keep positive relations with Russia and China. This cooperation was validated by purchasing Russia’s Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine. Hungary was the first EU country to sign such deal with Russia and unliterary approved the shot, ignoring the EU rules and solidarity (BBC, 2021). Viktor Orban seems not to care much about the critics, neither with COVID-19 vaccines deal not Hungary’s reliance on natural gas imported from Russia. In response to the critics regarding Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine, Orban said: “We don’t need explanations, we need vaccines” (Reuters 2021).
These developments suggest that Orban’s Hungary has chosen to step away from the EU’s agreed rules, showing more confidence towards Russia and China than any other European countries. Alongside, the EU has been discussing on a mechanism that will allow the bloc to suspend its payments to member states over violations of the rule of law, the discussions are ongoing but the first target of the punishment is known – Viktor Orban’s national-conservative government is regarded as the chief offender in rule-of-law violations on account of its reforms to the constitution and to media and electoral law since 2012. Viktor Orban’s ruling, in turn, is backed up by another EU country – Poland – where domestic rule of law breaches and ignorance of the EU values have been adopted for years. The potential antagonism makes the bilateral cooperation between the United States and Hungary even worse. The countries used to share similar interests, including the notion of a strong central Europe, the integrity of NATO and strong transatlantic ties, enhancing defense cooperation, maintaining Hungary’s contribution to international peacekeeping missions, and continuing the fight against terrorism. The starting point of the future bilateral relations might be based on the mutual shared interests. In this process, the United States need to apply a straightforward policy towards Hungary and Poland likewise, avoiding the double-standards when it comes to Russia’s increasing presence in Hungary and demanding from Hungary to act as a team player.
References
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By Nino Zotikishvili: The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
