In mid-June, the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, publicly acknowledged that “the people’s food situation is getting tense” as the national agricultural sector had failed to meet its grain targets due to typhoons which caused flooding last year, destroying more than 40.000 hectares of cropland and approximately 16.860 (BBC, 2021; Bicker, 2021). Nevertheless, flooding worsened the already dire situation of the country which was hit from the COVID-19 pandemic and the international sanctions that have been imposed for more than a decade. In this context, the new administration in Washington tries once again to establish a framework for negotiations for the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, with little progress so far.
The Kim Dynasty
When the Korean peninsula was liberated from Japanese occupation after the end of the Second World War, the region was split in two parts, with the northern half coming under Soviet-sponsored communist control, and the southern half with the backing of the United States. However when the south declared independence in 1950, North Korea, who had done the same two years earlier, invaded its neighbor, sparking an international war that ended in 1953, after the engagement of the U.N. forces that supported South Korea (BBC, 2019). In fact many consider this event as the starting point of the Cold War, and the first among the many “proxy-wars” that would follow during the second half of the twentieth century. Since then, the two adversaries established different economic and political systems with the 38th parallel remaining their common border until this day.
In the North, the leader of the Korean Communist Party, Kim Il-Sung who shaped national political affairs for almost half a century, established a communist regime with totalitarian characteristics based on the principles of diplomatic and economic “self-reliance”, the also-known as Juche doctrine, that was also replicated by the Ceausescu regime in Romania. The experiment worked at first and the country experienced a rapid economic development during the 1960s (BBC, 2019). However the economic growth did not continue throughout the Cold War and the country started gradually falling behind. After the death of Kim Il-Sung and his succession by his son Kim Jong-Il, the situation deteriorated rapidly. The new leader did little to ameliorate the economic situation while promoting the military-first dogma, in which civilians are prioritized after the armed forces for many resources including food (Bicker, 2021). The inaction and the failed policies led to serious food shortages that caused a devastating famine during the mid-90s, estimated to have killed hundreds of thousands (Bicker, 2021). A the same time, even though Pyongyang and Washington had signed an Agreed Framework under which the first committed to freeze its nuclear program, the new government developed its nuclear arsenal after change of the millennia, violating its international commitments and provoking the imposition of economic sanctions on the country. The situation remained unchanged in the first years of Kim Jong-Un in power. However, pretty soon the young leader enhanced bilateral relations with China, which had been stagnated during his father’s era, making Beijing the essential “lifeline” for the isolated country (Waltz, 2019). The progress was also remarkable for the U.S.-North Korean relations. After Donald J. Trump became president of the U.S. the two leaders moved from exchanging insults, to making remarkable steps towards the denuclearization of the peninsula. More Specifically, Trump help two summits with Kim in Singapore and Vietnam with the U.S. limiting their joint military activities with South Korea and the North, promising to limit their nuclear test sites. However the communication lost momentum after the summit in Hanoi and bilateral relations returned to “business as usual” (McCurry, 2021).
Preventing Catastrophe, Promoting Dialogue
As soon as the new President of the United States, Joe Biden took his oath, Pyongyang made tests for a number of ballistic missiles even though Washington had already declared that is willing to meet the North “anywhere, anytime without preconditions” (McCurry, 2021; NBC News, 2021). On the 22nd of June, Pyongyang’s refusal for dialogue was once again expressed via Kim’s sister Kim Yo-jong, who underlined that any US expectations for a resumption of talks were “wrong”, limiting even more the option for negotiation. Nevertheless as McCurry (2021) notes “Joe Biden’s stance has been described as a combination of Donald Trump’s direct engagement with Kim Jong-un and Barack Obama’s policy of “strategic patience””.
North Korea slides further into distress as the food shortages, combined with the pandemic effect and the grave consequences of the sanctions have extremely limited the economic capacities of the country. Closed borders also make difficult for the country to receive humanitarian aid, which is except from the sanctions, and bilateral trade with its biggest partner, China, has fallen 80% since the start of the year (Bicker, 2021). Simultaneously, the country is experiencing evident labor shortages which tries to compensate with forced child labor, augmenting the list of human rights violations record of the regime (Bicker, 2021). In this chaos, the limited international NGOs existing in the country are abandoning it being short of supplies and staff (Bicker, 2021).
The situation is an omen of a looming humanitarian catastrophe that will cost thousands of innocent lives. However, in Pyongyang, it seems that the nuclear deterrence capacity is vital not only for the legitimization of the regime but for its own survival. Thus the U.S. in close cooperation with China and the United Nations should make an effort to convince the North Korean elite to restart bilateral negotiations for the denuclearization of the whole peninsula. Firstly, it is of primordial importance to increase humanitarian assistance and lift some of the sanctions in vital products such as fertilizers that could save the country from a humanitarian catastrophe caused by famine. At the same time, Beijing and Washington should cooperate closely and push for “carrot and stick” policies that could push the regime to consider tit-for-tat solutions that could gradually deescalate the nuclear threat. Finally, regional bilateral dialogue between the two Koreas should also be enhanced in the spirit of the 2018 Kim’s entrance to the South that constituted a landmark for the two countries.
It is undeniable that North Korea hosts one of the most totalitarian and brutal regimes in the world with a long list of human rights abuses. However, diplomacy and dialogue, alongside with economic pressure could give tangible solutions that would deescalate and gradually resolve the aggression, without having a massive human cost.
References
Bicker, L. 2021 April 9. Kim Jong-un warns of North Korea crisis similar to deadly 90s famine. BBC. Retrieved in 2021 June 23 from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56685356
Bicker, L. 2021 May 29. North Korea says orphan children volunteering on mines and farms. BBC. Retrieved in 2021 June 23 from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57293167
Kim Jong Un’s sister derides U.S. official, dismisses chances for talks. 2021 June 22. NBC News. Retrieved in 2021 June 23 from https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/kim-jong-un-s-sister-derides-u-s-official-dismisses-n1271826
McCurry, J. 2021 June 22. Kim Jong-un’s sister dismisses hopes of US-North Korea nuclear talks. The Guardian. Retrieved in 2021 June 23 from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/22/kim-jong-un-sister-us-north-korea-nuclear-talks-kim-yo-jong
McCurry, J. 2021 March 25. North Korea test fires two ballistic missiles in challenge to Biden. The Guardian. Retrieved in 2021 June 23 from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/25/north-korea-missile-test-japan-south-korea
North Korea profile – Timeline. 2019 26 April. BBC. Retrieved in 2021 June 23 from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-15278612
Wertz, D. 2019. China-North Korea Relations. The National Committee on North Korea.
By Georgios Mavrodimitrakis, The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
