The Snap parliamentary election that was held in Moldova on July 11, 2021 has caught the worldwide attention as in Moldova’s recent history a Pro-western party leaded by President Maia Sandu gained the victory in the election (Politico 2021, “Moldova on pro-EU course after elections”). The election process itself was positively assessed by the joint observation mission from the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA), the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), and the European Parliament (EP), “Moldova’s early parliamentary elections were competitive and well run despite the inadequate handling of election disputes and campaign finance issues” (OSCEPA, 2021 “Moldova’s early parliamentary elections”). The observes complimented on smooth and peaceful election proceedings despite the highly polarized and negative campaigning that preceded the election day (ibid). However, the observers also highlighted the responsibility and necessity of the reforms that the new Moldova government need to implement as the country faces several institutional challenges, deeply-rooted corruption and the lack of independence of the judiciary (ibid).
The pro-Western party’s main rival in the election was the coalition of socialist and communist led by Kremlin-backed President Igor Dodon and former President Vladimir Voronin ( Aljazeera 2021, “Pro-EU party leads in Moldova parliamentary election: Early count”). Moscow-friendly Igor Dodon and his coalition accepted the results of the election pointed that this was the people’s will but expressed concerns about the ability of the new government to govern the country (AP News 2021, “Pro-EU party in Moldova wins clear majority in election”).
Moldova has long been divided over closer ties with the European Union and maintaining Soviet-era relations with Moscow. Being relatively small and one of the poorest countries in Europe, the history of Moldova goes back to Principality of Moldova established in the late middle ages. The territory of Principality incorporated present day Romania to the northwest of today’s Moldova. In the 16th century, the Principality became a vassal state of the Ottomans until 1806, when Russia occupied the Eastern part of the Principality known as Bessarabia (Vahl, 2004). Bessarabia remained a province of the Russian Empire until after World War I, when it became a part of Greater Romania, and it reverted to Russian control in 1940–41 and again after World War II, when it was joined to a strip of formerly Ukrainian territory (Sukhopara, et al, 2021). The Soviet regime lasted in Moldova until 1991 and after the collapse of the Soviet Union opened the possibility for Moldova to emerge as an independent state. Since its independence, Moldova has faced several challenges on its path of post-Soviet transition to establish a sovereign state and to depart from the culture of the highly centralized and authoritarian Soviet ruling practices. Even after the independence, Russia has never stayed away to let Moldova find its own way of development. Russian government managed to gain control on internal political processes when in 2001 election, the communists under Vladimir Voronin won over 50% of the vote. This victory allowed Russia to increase its influence and to activate its propagandistic mechanisms, even tried to make Russian an official language and compulsory in schools (BBC 2019, Moldova Profile).
Like many Post-Soviet countries, the ethnic tensions and territorial disputes emerged in Moldova as well. During economic depression and civil war, the south of Moldova became the home to large minorities of Gagauz, an ethnic group which speaks a Turkic language, while in Transdnestria, the small strip of land east of the Dniester river, Russians and Ukrainians made up the majority of the population. In 1991, both of these areas declared independence from the new Republic of Moldova, creating the republics of Gagauzia and Transnistria (Geohistory Moldova, 2014). Supported by Russia and Ukraine, Transnistria managed to maintain its defacto independence, and Moldova had to make concessions and compromise in order to avoid further fragmentation of its territory. The ethnic conflicts, economic dependency on Russian left no room for escaping communist regime. In 2001, Moldova became the first post-Soviet nation to reelect a communist government. The rule of the renewed communist regime lasted in Moldova till 2009 when the communist party finally lost their majority and the pro-Western coalition managed to form the government in 2012 with the newly elected president Nicolae Timofti (BBC 2019, Moldova Profile).
The 2012 elections can be regarded as the turning point in Moldova’s geo-political life. Moldova declared an open aspiration towards the EU values and Western democracy, signed an association agreement with the EU in 2014. However, this decision was not welcomed by Russia resulting in import restrictions on the country’s agricultural production. Russia has been Moldova’s main trade partner and Russian capital has accounted for a large part of its foreign investments, dominating in the energy and the banking sectors. The aim of the Russian actions was to fuel social disappointment, and ultimately – to prevent the pro-European coalition from winning the parliamentary elections (OSW, 2014).
Russia’s sanctions were condemned by the international community. By that time, Moldova was a member of the OSCE, the WTO, and the Council of Europe, and aspiring for closer engagement with the NATO alliance and the US. However, despite the international recognition, Moldova could not manage to achieve substantial development due to its internal political instability. The relation between the EU and Moldova has not been smooth as the EU expressed its dissatisfaction with the pace reforms going on in Moldova and refused to engage in close political and economic relations. Partly because the corruption and the lack of rule law is regarded as the main barrier for the country and the EU has tasked the new government headed by Maia Sandu to put it the main agenda.
It’s hard to predict how the new government and dynamic female leader are going to perform their task, improve democracy in Moldova and to gain the sympathies of the international partners. One thing is clear, the Moscow – West contest in Moldova is fragile and need to be backed by the western actors as Russia’s propagandistic desires do not just fade away. The Russian Foreign Ministry, has already accused the United States and the European Union of interfering in the Moldovan elections: “We regret to point out that Moldova’s election campaign is accompanied by an unprecedented interference in the country’s domestic affairs by U.S. and EU representatives (Radio Free Europe, 2021). This statement underlines that Russia is not going to accept Moldova’s pro-western choice. Further escalations and territorial disputes are much likely to be encouraged by Russia who already maintains close ties with defacto Transnistria in the political, military, cultural, and economic spheres.
References
Aljazeera (2021), “Pro-EU party leads in Moldova parliamentary election: Early count”, accessed 13 July 2021 <“>https://apnews.com/article/europe-business-government-and-politics-elections-moldova-a0a8cb2248540b18060dd640482194c6>
BBC (2019), Moldova Profile. Accessed 13 July 2021 <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17601579>
BBC (2019), Moldova Profile. Accessed 13 July 2021 <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17601579>
Geohistory, Moldova (2014), accessed 13 July 2021 <https://geohistory.today/moldova/>
OSW, (2014) accessed 13 July 2021 <https://www.oscepa.org/en/news-a-media/press-releases/press-2021/moldova-s-early-parliamentary-elections-were-competitive-and-well-run-despite-the-inadequate-handling-of-election-disputes-and-campaign-finance-issues>
Politico (2021), “Moldova on pro-EU course after elections”, accessed 13 July 2021 <https://www.politico.eu/article/moldova-pro-eu-election-center-right-pas-parliament/>
Radio Free Europe (2021), “Moldova’s Snap Elections Seen As A Referendum On Its Russian Past Versus A European Future”, accessed 17 July 2021 <https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-elections-west-russia/31351858.html>
Sukhopara, F. Nikolayevich , Buckmaster, . Barbara , Hitchins, . Keith Arnold and Latham, . Ernest (2021,). Moldova. Encyclopedia Britannica. Accessed 13 July 2021 <Nino Zotikishvili: The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
