On Tuesday, July 20, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke at the 47th anniversary of the Turkish invasion of the island of Cyprus. Therein, he emphasized that any future peace talks depends on a two-state solution declaring that “(w)e are right and we will defend our right to the end” (Aljazzera, 2021). Nicosia insists on its sovereignty over the whole island of Cyprus and regards the self-declared independent Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as illegal with the backing of the EU, the US and the UN. Ankara’s persistence in propagating and consolidation of the island’s division has been damaging its relations to the west.
On the same day, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called for a peace deal reunifying Cyprus as a bizonal, bicommunal federation (Ekathimerini, 2021). He underscored the importance of “UN resolutions and EU decisions” denouncing Turkey’s “meaningless policy of threats against Cyprus and the Turkish Cypriot [population]” which is “directed against international law and stability in the region” (ibid.). During Erdogan’s two-day state visit to the north-eastern parts of Cyprus, he also promised to reopen the beach resort of Varosha on the east coast which had been incorporated into the Turkish military zone (Guardian, 2021). Varosha stands as a symbol of the Turkish invasion of 1974 when it turned this former heart of Cyprus’s tourism into a ghost town. Ankara reportedly views this town as a negotiating asset to implement its interests regarding Cyprus (Aljazeera, 2021). The island of Aphrodite plays a pivotal role in Turkey’s schemes to project its power into the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and beyond.
Geopolitical importance of Cyprus in the Mediterranean Sea
Lying less than 90 km south of the Turkish coastline and just over 100 km west of the Levantine coasts at the closest two points, the island of Cyprus has played a pivotal role in controlling the sea lanes in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The favorable strategic position of Cyprus is also the reason why the UK still hosts two military bases there still stemming from the times of British administration. In a secret agreement with the Ottomans, the British received administrative control over the island in exchange for supporting Ottoman interests at the 1878 Congress of Berlin (Solsten, 1991). Cyprus became a key military base to protect the sea route via the Suez Canal to British India, and in 1906, the British opened a new port at Famagusta. With the outbreak of WWI, the two Empires found each other on opposing sides and Britain formally annexed Cyprus in November 1914 (ibid.). All sea lanes to the Levant pass by Cyprus as well as sea traffic exiting the Suez Canal toward Greece and Turkey. Even today, Cyprus houses two large British bases which serve the UK as a springboard into the Middle East and allow to project their power on the sea corridor between the Mediterranean and Red Seas to the Indian Ocean.
The discovery of gas deposits in the waters surrounding Cyprus have increased competition between Turkey, the Republic of Cyprus, Greece and Israel. Broad support to Cyprus’s claims comes from most littoral states in the region in regard to the Republic’s declared Exclusive Economic Zone (Tsiplacos, 2019). Ankara has declared an Exclusive Economic Zone on behalf of Turkish-occupied Northern Cyprus which overlaps with the Republic of Cyprus’s claims as according to international norms. Turkish exploration vessels with naval escort have started to systemically search for gas fields in these contested waters (Middle East Monitor, 2020). Turkey’s need for energy sources has been a powerful motive to bully its smaller neighbors and challenge their sovereignty of territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zones.
Political developments after WWII
After the war, calls from the Greek Cypriot community of the political union of Cyprus and Greece (“enosis”) were countered by the Turkish Resistance Movement of partition of the island (“taksim”). The Turkish Resistance Movement and its illegal actions were tolerated by the British lest bilateral relations with Turkey should be harmed (Bellingeri & Kappler, 2005). Nevertheless, in August 1960, Cyprus gained independence from the UK after the signing of the Zürich and London Agreement between the UK, Greece and Turkey (Solsten, 1991). The ensuing years were characterized by violence between the Greek and Turkish communities culminating in an international crisis in 1964. Fighting around the Turkish Cypriot village of Kokkina had been answered by the Turkish military with air raids on Greek Cypriot positions in the north-west. In March of that year a 7,000 strong UN detachment were sent to Cyprus to keep the peace after an earlier ceasefire had failed a month before. Ultimately, a ceasefire agreement was signed in August which did not last long either (BBC, 2008). Turkish threats of an invasion of Cyprus to come to help to the Turkish minority were rebuffed by a warning from US President Lyndon B. Johnson.
In June of the same year, the House of Representatives – which functioned only with Greek Cypriots members – passed a bill to establish the National Guard. The purpose of the law was to restrain the proliferation of Greek Cypriot irregular armed groups and put them under the control of General Georgios Grivas, esteemed on both sides. In July, the US diplomat Dean Acheson discussed at Geneva with Greek and Turkish representatives solutions to the ongoing violence. As a result of the negotiations, the Greek Cypriots would be granted enosis and, in exchange, the island of Kastelorizzo at the Turkish Mediterranean coastline should be transferred from Greece to Turkey; Turkish Cypriots who wished to emigrate should be compensated by Greece; and Turkish enclaves and a Turkish military base on Cyprus would be granted. The ruling Cypriot President Makarios III rejected these proposals which became known as the Acheson Plan (Solsten, 1991).
Tensions between Greek and Turkish Cypriots continued as both sides insisted on diametrically opposed views: the former said that the UN Security Council had lifted the rights of intervention of the guarantor powers of Britain, Greece and Turkey stipulated in the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee; the latter claimed that the Security Council actions had actually strengthened the rights of intervention (Solsten, 1991). In 1967, deadly fighting broke out close to Larnaca and Turkey sent in troops and set an ultimatum to invade the island. At the same time, Turkish troops were massed on the Greek-Turkish border and an invasion force was assembled. One of the ultimatum’s conditions were the ousting of General Grivas and the disbanding of the National Guard. In November of that year, General Grivas did resign from his post leaving Cyprus, however, the Turks did not retreat and only American-led negotiations ended the dispute (ibid.).
The coup d’état of the Greek military junta on July 15, 1974 on Cyprus changed everything. President Makarios III was ousted and replaced by Nikos Sampson, a fervent supporter of enosis. Citing the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee and an alleged right to intervene as a pretext the Turkish army invaded Cyprus on July 20 (Time, 1974). The UN has dismissed this justification ever since (Gray, 2008). After fighting had ceased and constitutional order had been restored, Makarios III was re-instituted at the end of that year, Turkish troops remained and occupied the northeastern parts of Cyprus. In 1983, the Turkish Cypriot parliament declared its independence as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus which has been recognized merely by Turkey (CIA, 2021). Recent developments, though, may see the recognition of Northern Cyprus by more countries which would give their claims more weight in the international arena.
Last year’s lifting of a 33-year long arms embargo to Cyprus by the US shows that Washington is still invested in securing its interests in the wider region. In 1987, the embargo had been placed to further reunification efforts and preclude an arms race on the island. Furthermore, the deepening of security cooperation was announced by the former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. As to be expected, the Turkish reaction was to threaten to “take the necessary reciprocal steps (…) to guarantee the security of the Turkish Cypriot people” (Reuters, 2020). UN Security Council decision no. 550 (1984) condemns the “secessionist acts in the occupied part of the Republic of Cyprus” and “to respect the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, unity” of the island. It also states that displaced Greek Cypriots have the right to return to Varosha.
Conclusion
A solution to the ongoing conflict between the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus and the self-declared independent Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus looks far away. American support to the Republic of Cyprus may not be perennial, however, as long as Turkey is trying to increase its military footprint in the wider region, it seems unlikely that Washington would retract its military aid at any time soon. It also seems unrealistic that the US government would suddenly abandon its stance to defend the territorial integrity of sovereign states, a position they defend in the wider neighborhood in the cases of Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia and Israel.
Similarly, the EU’s stance clearly backs the Republic of Cyprus’s claim to sovereignty over the whole island. The UN’s latest failure in 2017 to restart peace negotiations does not bode well for any settlement in the near future. Turkey’s plans to resettle Varosha will anger the Greek Cypriots and put another obstacle in the way of a peaceful long-time resolution of the conflict. Obviously, Ankara is not interested in finding a consensual solution with western powers, which means concessions would be detrimental to the latter’s position.
Furthermore, Turkish presence (in the form of a potential military base) would alter the geopolitical balance in the area putting pressure on the US and British Navies to counter increasing naval competition with Turkey. It further remains dubious if an Eastern Mediterranean Sea dominated by Turkey would be conducive to European security.
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By Mahmoud Refaat: The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
