The global nuclear non-proliferation regime is facing significant challenges as Iran and North Korea continue to test the limits of international diplomacy and enforcement mechanisms. While both nations have pursued nuclear capabilities under different geopolitical circumstances, their actions threaten to undermine decades of efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. As the balance between nuclear power nations is already thin, it is fundamental to avoid a renewed nuclear arms race: indeed, understanding the implications of nuclear ambitions is critical to shaping future policies aimed at strengthening the Non-Proliferation treaty.
Iran’s nuclear program has been a point of contention for decades. As it has the capability to build nuclear weapons, in particular after realising its land is rich in uranium, Iran has also started developing missile technologies, some of which could be capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction (Iran Watch, 2024). The international community started to raise concerns that it might become the “next North Korea”, while Iran’s leadership insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful energy purposes. But as of now, Iran has enough fissile material to fuel at least five nuclear weapons. Diplomatic efforts have faced significant obstacles, with regional tensions and internal political dynamics further complicating negotiations. The future of Iran’s nuclear status will largely depend on the ability of the world Superpowers to either negotiate a new agreement or implement deterrents that prevent weaponization, so to maintain stability.
North Korea presents a different challenge, as it has already developed and tested nuclear weapons. Unlike Iran, Pyongyang has openly defied international sanctions and diplomatic isolation, continuing to expand both its missile technology and nuclear arsenal, and reports of nuclear tests. Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, including high-profile summits with U.S. leaders, North Korea remains steadfast in its pursuit of nuclear weapons as a means of regime survival. For instance, the threat of a US or South Korea invasion seemed very tangible, so by reaching nuclear power, the leader Kim Jong Un became an equal global threat as the same level as the other nuclear states.
So far, a nuclear war has not happened mainly because of its main deterrence, a military doctrine and a national security strategy called Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). This principle simply means that a nuclear attack against a nuclear state would meet the same counterattack, leading to the complete annihilation of both sides. Because of this reality, countries with nuclear ambitions might be discouraged from creating mass-destruction bombs, indeed some non-nuclear states have preferred to leave aside their nuclear ambitions in exchange for protection under the “nuclear umbrella” of allies, for example NATO.
While the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is an historical agreement aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, it is not as efficient. It lacks enforcement mechanisms first, and second, it imposes member countries from not developing nuclear arms, while it only suggests to the original members and nuclear SUperpowers, the United States, Russia, China, France, and the UK, to disarm.
The future of nuclear non-proliferation will depend on the international community’s ability to address the security challenges posed by an eventual arms race in the Middle East or East Asia: the failure to deter North Korea through sanctions has revealed that enforcement mechanisms might not be the solution. A more diplomatic approach for non-proliferation treaties might be through security guarantees or economic partnership. The International Atomic Energy Agency also plays a pivotal role in ensuring global collaboration and technical cooperation: it works for the safe, secure, and peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology. Although the risk of a nuclear war is quite small, it is important to maintain global stability and avoid further proliferation of mass-destruction bombs.
Resource:
- Iran Watch (2024) The Next North Korea? Lessons for Addressing Iran’s Nuclear Program, published by Iran Watch, available at :The Next North Korea? Lessons for Addressing Iran’s Nuclear Program | Iran Watch
By The European Institute for International Relations
