Taiwan is experiencing a growing self-identity with the passing of time. The democratic government and its own constitutions are key factors in shaping the political perceptions of younger generations that are distancing themselves from Chinese rule. On the other hand, Beijing still sees self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually join its national borders. Despite the strong economic links between them and the lack of global support for full independence and official recognition, the future of Taiwan-China relations remains uncertain, but several factors shape the possibilities of reunification or continued separation
Historically, Taiwan’s territory has been contested between China and Japan: first under the control of the Chinese empire in the 17th century, it then became a Japanese colony at the end of the 19th century, after the first Sino-Japanese war. With the end of World War II and the consequential loss of Japan, China once again took over control of the territory. The question of the independence of Taiwan is therefore out of discussion for China, which claims that from a historical point it rightfully belongs to China.
To combat the strong self-determination feeling of the island, China has often spoken of a peaceful reunification, and how it would signify a win-win on both sides, from an economic to a security point of view. Beijing might indeed push on the “one country, two systems” as a basic state policy to convince Taiwan. The policy refers to the system used to include Hong Kong and Macao, its two special administrative regions (SARs), into national borders: “one country” refers to a unified territory, while “two systems” means that it allows SARs to maintain their capitalist economy, but also different social and political systems. However, Taiwan has so far refused to join the scheme, as it would still mean a lack of total freedom and eventual political repression, as happened in the case of Hong Kong.
But Beijing has also used threats. Chinese president affirmed that reunification of the must be fulfilled and is believed to have a deadline. If a military conflict were to happen, China certainly would win, despite Taiwan being backed by the US with arms sales and strategic partnerships. However, it would not be enough. But it is very unlikely that China would use military force to take over the island, considering not only that, also thanks to globalization and the use of social media, it would create an international backlash and condemnation of Beijing’s actions, adding pressure to its political and an economic tie, but it might also lead to the US intervention in the territory. However, on the international stage, the US does not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation: as of today, only 12 countries, plus the Vatican, officially recognize it.
The political landscape in Taiwan is deeply divided on the issue. While some political groups, such as the KMT, advocate for closer ties with Beijing, others, including the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), emphasize Taiwan’s sovereignty and resist reunification efforts. Also, the political perception of younger voters, is more and more in favor of maintaining distance from Beijing, as they are experiencing a growing sense of Taiwanese identity.
Economically, Taiwan and China are deeply interconnected. China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, and many Taiwanese businesses rely on the Chinese market. But the Taiwanese economy is also key to Beijing: much of the world’s electronics are powered by chips made in Taiwan. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, represents over half of the world’s market, so if China took over Taiwan, a big portion of the global economy would be in its hands.
But because of this strong economy based on electronics, President Trump has recently shifted the US position on backing Taiwan, affirming that the island should pay the US more for protection and that it had stolen America’s chip business. The US might therefore interrupt the arms sales to Taiwan and might decide not to intervene when, and if, China decides to take over the island in not-so-peaceful ways.
In conclusion, Taiwan has also become an international symbol of resistance to one of the major powers of the 21st century: despite being isolated in the global political sphere, the self-determination of Taiwanese citizens and its government is crucial in maintaining relative distance from China. It is unlikely that Beijing will use hard power on the island, but it is still unclear whether it will manage to shift the population’s perception through the use of soft power. Perhaps the most significant factor in determining Taiwan’s future is the growing sense of Taiwanese identity, which is leaving no space for China’s attempt to conquer the territory.
By The European Institute for International Relations
