On April 11, a missile attack by Russia destroyed Ukraine’s largest power-generating plant, Trypilska Thermal Power Plant (TPP), located in the Kyiv region. Russian President Putin claimed that the strikes were the response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy targets over the past few weeks. Due to the Russian attack on Thursday, over 200,000 people in Ukraine lost power, leaving them without access to electricity, heat, and water. Energy disruptions of this scale can negatively impact the population’s motivation and the economy. Ukraine’s allies and partners need to understand that even a small number of missiles that can bypass defence systems can cause significant damage to energy infrastructure. This highlights the importance of a well-provisioned and effective air defence system.
Ukraine may have taken measures to protect its energy infrastructure well during winter, anticipating potential attacks. One such measure could have been relocating air defences to the country’s front lines. As summer arrives, energy security may be less critical since Ukraine can better withstand decreased energy supplies during the warmer months than during the harsh winter.
Although the next winter is months away, the war between Ukraine and Russia shows no signs of ending. Therefore, during the summer, Ukraine must focus on improving its energy system’s security to prevent future attacks. This is particularly crucial as the conflict has escalated to a new phase of hostility. Both sides are engaged in a deadlock, aiming to coerce each other’s civilian population and economy through attacks on power plants. One of Ukraine’s biggest challenges is air defence. Last night, the Russian attack targeted power plants, and Ukrainian air defence was only able to intercept less than half of the estimated 42 missiles.
First, Ukraine should not rebuild the large power plants, which are easy to target. 150-200 small power plants should be scattered across the country that can power a city if one of them goes down. A spread-out energy system is more complicated to destroy, with the smaller plants replacing each other when attacked. In addition to scattered power plants, Ukraine’s key allies must support air defence systems more. The German Ministry of Defense announced on April 13 that Germany will immediately transfer one Patriot system to Ukraine to defend against Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid. However, Ukraine claims to need at least 7 Patriot systems. The USA is the only country that can significantly improve Ukraine’s air defence capabilities in this way.
Ukraine’s current strategy is to target and attack Russian energy facilities systematically. Ukraine targeted 14 major refineries and two smaller plants in Russia, and most attacks successfully disrupted their operations. The International Energy Agency reports that drone attacks on Russian oil refineries by Ukraine will likely disrupt European trade in diesel and other products. European gas prices increased by up to 10% after Russia attacked Ukraine’s gas and power infrastructure last week. According to recent reports, Kyiv is employing long-range drones to launch attacks on oil refineries to disrupt fuel supplies to the army. The ultimate objective is to harm Russia’s economy and the Russian population’s morale. However, Russia is confident that it will be able to repair all the damaged refineries by June. Russia and Ukraine have the same goal. The Russian attack on the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant left 200000 people without access to electricity, heat, and water, which could negatively affect their motivation and economy. The recent targeting of energy sources indicates that both states recognise the current stalemate in the war and are increasing their actions in response. This destruction could harm energy security in Europe due to the impact on both states’ oil refineries and power plants.
It is evident that the ongoing risk of missile attacks on Ukraine highlights the crucial need for its allies and partners to strengthen the country’s air defence systems. Possessing effective air defence systems is vital to safeguarding essential energy infrastructure. Additionally, increasing the number of small power plants to diversify energy sources can improve Ukraine’s resilience against disruptions. As Ukraine and Russia target each other’s energy infrastructure, it inadvertently raises energy costs within Europe, thus impacting energy security.
By The European Institute for International Relations
