After years of threatening predictions of a comeback of the far-right, we are now witnessing its rise to power. Arguably, Italy, with its previously understated new PM Giorgia Meloni, paved the way to what seems to be a now-inevitable shift in politics. Interestingly, countries that were not initially on the radar have been swiped by a wave of extreme nationalism. An example of this is the Netherlands, where the Freedom Party won the largest number of seats in the national elections. As many of the once taboo views return to be socially accepted, the phenomenon is fast spreading. Of particular interest, due to the country’s significant role on the international stage and to its charged history, is the rise of the far-right in Germany. Notwithstanding the country’s commitment post WWII to eradicate extremism and to not repeat past mistakes, the crisis the country is facing has led to a new surge of the far right.
The party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has more than doubled its share of national “voting intentions”, thus becoming Germany’s second most popular party. This positions it behind the opposition centre-right Christian Democrats but ahead of all three parties in the current coalition government. Importantly, one of the main exponents of the party, Alice Weidel is suggested to be more popular than the Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The party resembles in many ways all other similar parties that are gaining consensus around Europe. They’re main talking point is immigration. The AfD does not waste a chance to remind the public that Merkel’s welcoming policy towards Syrian refugees has ruined Germany. The party’s stand on immigration mirrors that purported by other similar parties in that it calls for Germany to take control of its borders back. Such policy is justified by party members through the rhetoric of high rates of crime and unemployment among immigrants. A second fundamental point for the AfD is the reformation of Europe. The party would like to see the Union’s powers widely reduced as they consider its current state undemocratic and ultimately inefficient. The scepticism culminates in their promises to abandon the Euro and reintroduce the Deutschmark. As Ms Weidel often states, the nation state is the best vessel for democratic debate and action. Even more controversially, the AfD is currently the only party represented in the Bundestag whose environmental and climate policy is based on the denial of human-caused climate change. It is, however, argued that the main traction points for the AfD, what has made it gain consensus, are its stand on immigration and its call for a stronger German national identity. It would not appear that climate-change denial is popular in Germany overall.
What is important to note is that, as it happened in other countries, what started as a “protest vote” is now becoming more of a “support vote”. People are increasingly actively supporting the party, rather than voting it to send a message of discontent to the mainstream parties. The reason for this is simple: the mainstream parties did not listen the first time around. For a long time, mainstream parties on the left, the majority in Germany, actively refused to engage in dialogue with anyone who was sceptical of the then normalised political views. Crucially, they did not take people’s concerns seriously. The widespread concerns about immigration, crime, national identity, economic insecurity and a democratic deficit within the EU are not only normal but also legitimate. Taking a rather undemocratic approach the left in recent years has engaged in an ostracization of anyone who posed questions as to how and if policies that effect the country are sustainable. The mistake was two-folds. Firstly, the majority parties embraced narratives pushed for on social media underestimating the impossibility of sustaining such positions long-term in a relatively unprepared and increasingly destabilised society. The international political turmoil and economic crisis in Germany, and elsewhere, definitely helped the transition. Secondly, the ruling majority also forgot about all the people who are unlikely to voice their opinions on social media and who were de facto left unaddressed. That gap has been promptly filled by the far-right which provided a platform for them to voice their concerns and to feel heard. In fact, it is argued that most people who are now voting for parties like the AfD are, fundamentally, not extremists; however, having identified in such parties the only platform available to have the discussions they would have preferred to have with the majority, they end up supporting them despite their extremism on certain matters, rather than because of it.
Another important factor to highlight when analysing the rise of the far-right in Europe is its increasing support for female leaders. Increasingly, extremist parties are supporting women as their leaders. Marine Le Pen in France and Georgia Meloni in Italy are just some examples. In Germany, Alice Weidel is considered to be the front runner for the position of chancellor, were the party ever to be in the position to choose one. She is a very interesting figure in the context of the far-right. She is openly gay, married to a non-white woman, she is highly educated and has a past career in economics. Any analyst trying to predict her political views on the basis of these attributes would probably guess she is on the centre left. It is not the first time we see a far-right leader leading their lives in a way somehow at odds with the party’s convictions. Meloni, massive political supporter of the traditional family and of women’s role as mothers, only has one child from a non-marital relationship that is now over. Apart from the gap between what they preach and what they practice, these women’s role as faces of the party is relevant for its possibly strategic function. Arguably, their appointment as leaders of the party, apart from reflecting their own political merits, is also an attempt to soften the party’s image and to instrumentalise the general perception of women as more reassuring, less dangerous. Their being somewhat unconventional allows the parties to portrait themselves as more tolerant and less extremist than they actually are. In fact, at the end of the day these parties are men-dominated, and it is a considerable proportion of those men who are accountable for the extremist reputation of the party. The policies they support do not benefit women at large and, crucially, in systems based on parliamentary representation, even if in positions of leadership, women will always be outnumbered. Therefore, although Alice Weil does not represent the most extremist side of the AfD, after she will reassure the voters and lead the party to victory, it is questionable whether it would be her to call the shots. As a result, the threat of the AfD reveals itself as altogether more dangerous.
If Germany was to one day be governed by the far-right the repercussions would be felt internationally. First and foremost, the future of the European Union would be put into question. Germany’s role as the biggest economy and political influence in the Union places it in a unique position to hinder the Union’s development. Furthermore, the threat of Germany ever voting on leaving the Union should be taken all the more seriously considering its likely ability to survive outside the Union. It is therefore vital that the centre left parties start engaging with parties like the AfD, and most importantly, with its voters to provide an alternative, which most of them would prefer. States like Saxony that had historically been on the left are now increasingly voting on the right, it is not hard to imagine voters could be swung back to the left if their concerns were to be addressed, at least partially.
To conclude, the rise of the far-right in Europe that we have witnessed in recent years is reaching Germany too. As in other countries, it was triggered by a rapid change in the country’s population, economic instability and political turmoil. The majority parties’ approach of antagonization has undoubtedly further exacerbated the growing concerns, thus leading more voters to turn their heads towards the far-right. The latter on its own part has conducted a smart campaign of softening its public perception, including through the choice of its leader. Given the far-reaching consequences for the international community, a radical shift of Germany towards the far-right should be avoided at all costs. The task arguably rests upon the rest of the political class, which should focus on addressing domestic concerns in such a way to placate the ramping extremism it is now experiencing.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations
