The latest strategic decision on part of Kremlin to suspend its last remaining nuclear weapons treaty with the US and its ongoing cooperation in nuclear technology transfer with China has effectively created a new strategic paradigm where China will continue to accelerate the construction of its nuclear arsenal, with the new deal between both countries cancelling any serious prospects for the US cooperating on the nuclear field with the Chinese government or being able to negotiate a end to its build-up of more nuclear weapons.
In reaction to this, regional diplomats and security analyst that have made continuous efforts to achieve the prospect of establishing an international initiative that could convince the Chinese state to join US-Russia negotiations regarding the extension of the “NEW START” arms control treaty ahead of its expiry date in 2026 have effectively become more worried of the inevitable regional escalation of tensions that will result for this new development.
Ultimately, China´s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal sits at the core of this concern as it grows in size and sophistication- an expansion that Washington sees as a direct strategic threat to its geopolitical leadership of the region, with the Pentagon´s annual China report released last November noting that Beijing has, as one of its main strategic objectives, the aim of accelerating its nuclear warhead arsenal build-up, having already more than 400 operational warheads.
It is also strategically worrying given the fact that it this development signifies that Chinas ultimate goal of possessing a great nuclear arsenal will become a reality, with pentagon nuclear security analysts predicting that the Chinese military will possess by 2035 about 1500 nuclear warheads, with the Chinese nuclear threat representing a “black box”.
In addition, this new agreement along with Putin´s suspension may have set any prospects of China´s government improving its transparency in terms of international negations to reduce its continuous nuclear arms build-up.
It should be taken into account that President Putin has announced that Moscow was committed to suspend the treaty signed in 2010 that had the imperative of putting an alt at the maximum number of 1,550 nuclear warheads that the US and Russia could deploy while providing for mutual inspections, with this move creating a greater tension and a bigger risk of nuclear warheads being used or proliferating.
The new agreement will be central for the economic growth of Russia´s national state-owned nuclear energy and technology corporation-Rosatom. The agreement is thus a project that is also one of strategic importance for the energy security of both countries given the fact that it will help China develop also its nuclear energy capacities which are already highly advanced and capable of competing with the US nuclear energy fleet.
Ultimately, the alignment of China´s nuclear arms and energy program with Moscow invalidates any serious prospect of Washington effectively convincing the Chinese state to cooperate with the US in nuclear energy, further instilling the already technological and military competition between both countries.
Such a scenario in the continuation of the current international global paradigm of both super-power’s competition, the risk of a new cold war might look increasingly more likely to become the outcome.
China has been a nuclear power since the 1960´s and has for decades managed to effectively maintain a small number of nuclear warheads and missiles as a deterrent under its unique “no first use” pledge, and although the pledge has remained in its official accounts its arsenal will grow now at an increasingly accelerated manner in order to be sufficient to become equal to that of the US, which is Beijing ultimate strategic goal.
The People´s Liberation Army has now gained the tactical ability to launch long-range nuclear-armed missiles from submarines, aircraft and an expanding range of silos that are located in China´s interior territory- and it will most likely use its nuclear triad to coerce regional rivals in the event of an extreme escalation regarding the control of Taiwan, with the Pentagon also warning of possible conditions over “no first use” as the build-up continues.
Just as Kremlin will use in the extreme scenario of its existence being threatened the use of nuclear weapons will also become an inevitability if the PRC regime is put in an extreme survival situation where its existence is put at stake.
Consequently, form the US perspective, the lack of transparency and the growing military assertiveness of the PRC in conjunction with this new agreement raises serious questions regarding the potential for long-term strategic stability in the Pacific.
Some security experts have also advanced the argument that the PRC has done this strategic decision with the clear intention of straying away in the most effective way possible of being in the diplomatic position of being bound by any three-way talks with Russia and the US, since it still is far away for the US capabilities and could never in the time being be able to defend its interests on equal terms.
The PRC is well aware that strategically the Russian Federation is for its strategy of being holistically autonomous from the US sphere of influence is a better option given the fact that Kremlin has deep strategic economic deals with China and that the PRC is one of its most important supporters in the war in Ukraine.
Additionally, the political significance of such an agreement is important to have into account since it signals that Beijing will increasingly support Russia´s position in the international arena while feeling emboldened to further accelerate its build-up.
The overall effect is that the US will inevitably lose the ability to effectively use almost all pacific diplomatic pressure measures to make the Chinese leadership engage in international nuclear doctrine.
It also signifies a regress from China´s past political position in international cooperation for nuclear non-proliferation initiatives, since until recently the PRC openly and consistently supported arms control between the US and Russia and has long wanted to maintain the image of being a responsible stakeholder.
Under the changes the current situation, will continue to insist on being pointing to any criticism of its nuclear build up as hypocrisy on the part of the US which has a bigger arsenal.
Consequently, the US must gather all its allies and internationally pressure China to in the very least be held responsible and commit to the “no first use” policy regarding nuclear arms and simultaneously to cooperate to create an international environment where rogue states might not get the possession of nuclear weapons.
Ultimately, the US must comprehend that it is highly important to in the very least create an international environment where the Chinese regime might be willing to negotiate, something that won´t be possible without at least without the cooperation of Russia.
Economic pressure from the US or some form of deal in return for less sanctions towards China might in the medium term make the Chinese leadership understand that Washington is serious in regards to its commitment of making China abide to an international agreement regarding control of nuclear arms, however escalation must be avoided and the US must understand that it needs to be perceived in a non-aggressive manner while being assertive.
In conclusion, a new arrangement most be created given the paradigm change in nuclear global security, and the only way to create it is to understand that the previous agreement is of no value since neither China nor Russia follows it anymore.
Consequently, the only strategically responsible and measured response is for Washington to create a new international platform where nuclear deterrence can be renegotiated and a common agreement can be reached between all nuclear super-powers.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
