Lebanon has been at the centre of political turmoil for some time now, with the vacuum at the Presidency deepening the crisis. The plunge, which started with a financial crisis, has now affected every sector and class in Lebanon, where amidst the political uncertainty, the Lebanese are battling a cholera outbreak, energy crisis as well as disruption in healthcare services. The United States has been trying to broker energy agreements with Jordan and Egypt to revive the energy sector in Lebanon, the Ceaser Sanctions placed on Syria’s Assad regime are making the implementation of these agreements rather tricky. However, Lebanon’s proximity to both Syria and Israel (both of interest to U.S. Foreign Policy) makes the nation a strategic interest to the United States.
Reviving Lebanon could be crucial for the Biden Administration to maintain its strategic position in the eastern Mediterranean, a pre-requisite for its influence in the entire region. The United States has played an instrumental role in providing assistance to Lebanon during USAID and the United Nations World Food Program and through facilitating energy deals. However, the United States should implement a more assertive foreign policy to tackle the Lebanese Crisis. Amidst the lack of strong leadership, Hezbollah has been key in providing social services to the people of Lebanon and brokering agreements with the Iranian Government, to the United States’ dismay. This has also resulted in the growing approval of Hezbollah in the region, and continued support could push out U.S. presence in the region.
Exemption to the Ceaser Sanction
The U.S. brokered agreements to supply energy resources to crisis-hit Lebanon using a transnational pipeline that runs through Syria would result in Damascus receiving a share of the energy travelling through its territory, which would contrive the sanction placed by the United States on Syria through the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019 (popularly called the ‘Caesar Sanctions’). However, Congress has placed reservations about the waiver of the sanction. However, it is imperative that this difference is set aside to bolster the energy sector in Lebanon. The Republicans and many Democrats believe this step could warm up the region to Assad’s Syria, a step many countries in the MENA are already considering. This could also weaken future sanctions. But this minimal benefit to Damascus must be ignored, as delay in initiating the energy deals would result in Iranian taking the deal forward. Since this is a humanitarian assistance scheme, the interpretation must be that there need not be any expressed waiver to put the agreements into action.
End the Political Vacuum
The United States and its allies must put pressure on Lebanon’s financial and political elite to form government at the earliest. Trust in Lebanese institutions is essential for international assistance and much-needed foreign direct investment. Congress has called on Biden to place sanctions on lawmakers for preventing the formation of a new government and financial reform in Lebanon. Lebanon’s parliament has failed to select a replacement for former President Michel Aoun, whose term expired in October, leaving the country with a political vacuum amid the economic crisis. However, the Hezbollah allies of the Parliament have made the process harder by staging walkouts during the voting process and preventing the formation of a quorum needed to proceed. However, the sanctions must not affect the general public, which has been deprived of resources due to the political imbalances affecting the World Bank funding and other relief.
Continued Support to the Lebanese Military
Despite the lawmakers’ failure to take control of the crisis, the Lebanese Military has been instrumental in keeping the fabric of the nation together and deterring the active threat posed by Iran and Hezbollah. The White House has formulated a policy to increase support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), however, increased assistance is required as the failing system cannot pay these soldiers adequately. The United States should support governance and stability in Lebanon by aiding the military.
Without domestic compromise and the lack of intervention or assistance from regional actors, Lebanon is in a position to accept anyone’s help. If the United States fail to step into the role, Iranian influence and Hezbollah will not be far from pushing out any American influence over the region. Helping Lebanon is a humanitarian mission and a much-needed policy for the United States to continue its presence in the region. With recent hits in its relationship with other Middle Eastern nations, the United States must push for a more comprehensive policy for Lebanon and stability in Lebanon, one of the Middle East’s last remaining democracies.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
