Giorgia Meloni could become head of government in Rome this Sunday 25th of September. Are the worries about Italy turning away from Europe justified ?
Almost 3 weeks ago, the election program of the right-wing conservative party “Fratelli d’Italia” (Brothers of Italy) was published. In recent polls, the party led by Giorgia Meloni has a 25 percent approval rating and is considered the favorite to win the election. The alliance of the “Brothers” (the right-wing nationalist Lega and the Christian Democratic Forza Italia) can expect to win 47 percent of the vote, according to the poll. Meloni herself could become the first woman to hold the highest government office in Italy. The center-left alliance led by the Social Democrats has 21 percent. However, around 40 percent of voters are still undecided.
The left is trying to make up for lost ground by warning that Italy could relapse into a dark age of anti-European nationalism if the right wins the election. Meloni counters that the desperate left is resorting to the device of demonizing its opponent because it lacks arguments : “The only thing they can think of is to claim that I’m a monster”. She herself assured at a recent campaign appearance that what she aspires is for Italy to adopt a different attitude on the international stage, which include its dealings with the European Commission.
What that means in concrete terms emerges from the second of a total of 25 points in the election program. On the EU’s post-pandemic reconstruction fund, from which Italy is a particular beneficiary with 191.5 billion euros, it says : “The plan is a great opportunity for Italy’s modernization, for the country’s infrastructure and for the nation’s economic reboot”. It is the perfect opportunity for Italy to make the most of these resources, taking into account the new context created by the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis.
The problem about that is not so much what the Fratelli d’Italia intend to do but how. In plain language, a Meloni government wants to use more EU money for fossil fuel development, liquefied natural gas terminals, pipelines and gas drilling in Italian coastal waters instead of wind turbines and solar plants as planned. But rebooting the Italian economy by renegotiating the use of EU funds with a goal of allocating more resources to energy supply and energy security to free Italy and Europe from dependence on Russian gas in order to protect the population and the economy from rationing and price increases, instead of prioritizing the green transformation of the Italian economy as planned ; is making short term decisions.
It is true that Italy could become a strategic hub for transporting huge primary energy supply sources from North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean, thanks to its geographic location. But so far, Brussels has signaled that there will be no significant renegotiations on the reconstruction fund and no major deviations from the EU Green Deal considering the long term importance of the green transition.
About Europe and the Atlantic alliance, the election program says : “Italy must re-emerge as a protagonist in Europe, in the Mediterranean and on the international stage after too many years of marginalization under leftist governments”. The country would fulfill all commitments, including increasing military spending to the levels set by NATO. Together with its allies, Rome would continue to stand by Ukraine in the face of the aggression of the Russian Federation.
With regard to European integration, the program states that it must be revived. It is a matter of creating a “Europe of fatherlands” based on the interests of the peoples and facing up to the challenges of our time. Because in their opinion Brussels has extended its competences over too many years on too many aspects of our daily lives instead of developing a common foreign and defense policy and safeguarding our energy autonomy. Meloni said she would like to see a Europe in the future “that does less and does less better : with less centralism and more subsidiarity, with less bureaucracy and more politics”. Which are valid points when one thinks of it. She knows that the Italian economy is strongly intertwined with the European economy, and especially with the German economy. So it would be in Italys best interest to stay on Brussels good side. Just as any other country in the European Union, Meloni defends he’s national interests. Which is probably at the root of many European integration problems that the Union has been facing since its beginnings. As the third-largest economy in the eurozone, Meloni wants Italy to be reassigned “the role it deserves” and be considered like France and Germany are.
But then, wouldn’t it be more pragmatical to concentrate on building up new cooperation ties with France and Germany rather than getting close to the more populist side of Europe ?
Surprisingly, the question of how to stand with Hungary has taken center stage in the final sprint of the election campaign. Meloni, who has close political and personal ties to Orbán, sharply criticized the EU Commission’s threat to withhold the 7,5 billion euros in aid to Budapest because of shortcomings in the fight against corruption. In her opinion, Brussels was thus driving Orbán into Putin’s arms and dividing the 27 member states. Brussels is “abusing the rule-of-law issue as an ideological weapon to hit those who are not in line”, Meloni told the conservative paper Il Giornale. Former Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, party leader of the right-wing nationalist Lega, has also criticized the threat of funding cuts issued against Budapest.
During the vote in the European Parliament on the so-called Delbos Corfield report on the development of the rule of law in Hungary, according to which there is no longer a democracy there but a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy, the Strasbourg deputies of Lega and Fratelli d’Italia had voted against the condemnation of Budapest on September 15th.
On a political opinion level, Melonis party identifies more with the Fidesz party of Orbán. But those ties can very quickly become a breaking point for the Italian center-right alliance composed of Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia, Salvini’s Lega and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. In fact, after the resolution from Strasbourg and the threat from Brussels against Budapest, Berlusconi, whose party is admittedly the weakest link in the tripartite alliance, followed up last Sunday with a threat that his Forza Italia would not participate in any government if the coalition partners endangered Italy’s firm ties to the EU and NATO. In doing so, Berlusconi effectively repeated outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s recommendation to the incoming government. “Our allies are Germany, France and the other European countries that defend the rule of law”, Draghi told reporters last Friday, and continued, “We should ask ourselves with which partners we can best defend Italian interests and which partner carries the most weight”. Which is also a valid point. Are Fratelli d’Italias ties with Budapest worth weakening the crushing majority the center-right alliance would have in case of a win on Sunday ? Siding with Victor Orbán would mean siding against Brussels. Italians have a choice to make.
https://www.fratelli-italia.it/programma/
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
