Sweden and Finland have pursued a policy of neutrality since World War II, refusing to officially join either side in the Cold War, and pursuing foreign and security policies coherent with this posture. After the end of the Cold War, this strict neutrality was already broken, with both countries joining the EU in 1995 and signing various agreements with NATO ever since. Joining the Alliance, however, has not been seriously contemplated by either country until Russia invaded the Ukraine.
The invasion of Ukraine has most certainly revived the decaying Atlantic Alliance, and now it seems to have returned at the centre of European countries’ foreign policy. Traditionally, the Nordic neutrality had been about more than hard geopolitics, and had been only a part of a larger policy of pacifism and non-militarism, but also of ideological idiosyncrasy. This allowed them not only to escape conflict during the Cold War but also to become some of the most trusted parties in international law, having mediated various conflicts and sustained an independent and value-driven foreign policy throughout.
The current situation is much different however. Both countries are full members of the European Union, leaving little room for ambiguity on which side are they on in the current war. Both countries have serious security concerns of their own regarding Russia; Finland sharing an extensive land border and Sweden fearing conflict spreading to the Baltic. On the home front, the two countries are ideologically aligned with its European partners, and the socialist difference that informed pacifism is long gone. In this line, public opinion seems to be in the side of joining NATO, especially since the invasion of Ukraine, reaching 50% in Sweden and 60% in Finland, astonishing numbers for both countries if we look back.
Since the fall of the USSR, joining NATO has been mostly considered unnecessary by both countries, and also a dangerous provocation of Russia. The Kremlin had always maintained the position that NATO eastward expansion brought security threats for Russia, and it had spoken directly against Sweden and Finland joining the Alliance, warning of “military and political consequences” if that happened. The form of this retaliation is unknown and to an extent unpredictable, especially in the current situation.
Traditional strategic thinking was that tight bonds between Sweden, Finland and NATO member countries represented an implicit security guarantee; contributing to deterrence and providing an acceptable level of security for the countries face any Russian advances. Though outside an article 5 commitment, the Nordic countries were covered by the western alliance de facto. However, this rationale seems to have imploded as a consequence of the current war. Ukraine also maintained close agreements and partnerships with NATO, and yet is still facing a Russian invasion mostly alone. This has unnerved the Nordic countries, who now look at the prospect of joining NATO with keener eyes. Better safe than sorry, seems to be the line of thinking in Stockholm and Helsinki.
In Sweden, the Social Democrats (the current ruling party in a minority government) have opened the door at changing its official posture towards NATO accession. Traditionally opposed, they are now consulting their base, and a positive outcome could lead Sweden to formally applying for membership as soon as June this year, as right-wing opposition parties already support NATO membership.
Finnish members of parliament, on its part, are waiting for a security report to be presented by intelligence officials next week in order to make a decision on the matter. Everything seems to point out however to an overwhelming legislative majority in favour of NATO accession, which could put Finland in a parallel application for membership to Sweden before the summer.
If the two countries apply formally to join the organization, NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg has already said that their application would be most welcome. In the same line, several member countries have supported the notion. So, if Finland and Sweden finally apply, it is most likely that they will enter NATO. What comes next, however, is much more uncertain.
Russian retaliation is unpredictable, especially with hostilities still ongoing in Ukraine. An escalation of the conflict and a spread to other countries seems unlikely, but then again, so it seemed the fell-scale invasion of Ukraine. Joining right at this moment, then, seems more a risk than an assurance of protection for Sweden and Finland. Their fears are totally understandable, and may even be based on true assumptions; however, pushing the borders of NATO even closer to the Russian heartland seems an invitation for a conflict of a unbearable dimension.
Sweden and Finland fear that Russia may pre-emptively strike, and be left alone without any guarantee or assistance like they see in Ukraine. Their situation, however, is very different from that of the government in Kyiv. A key difference that changes everything is that both Nordic countries are member states of the European Union. Considering that, a NATO membership would not provide much added security. Being members of the EU, any move against them would concern all member state, many of which are NATO members. In that way, they are already protected by NATO and the EU without forcing Russia to feel compelled to retaliate.
It would be unwise to further the tension in Eastern Europe, and Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO would accomplish only that at this moment. Their legitimate security concerns, however, raise many questions on European security policy, and how could or should change going forward.
REFERENCES
BBC News (11/04/2022). Ukraine War: Russia warns Sweden and Finalnd against Nato. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61066503
Chivvis, C. S. (2017). Sweden, Finland, and NATO. German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Möller, U., & Bjereld, U. (2010). From Nordic neutrals to post-neutral Europeans: Differences in Finnish and Swedish policy transformation. Cooperation and conflict, 45(4), 363-386.
Reuters (11/04/2022). Finalnd, Sweden set to join NATO as soon as summer, The Times reports. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-sweden-set-join-nato-soon-summer-times-2022-04-10/
Reuters (11/04/2022). Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats to review party policy on NATO. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedens-ruling-social-democrats-review-party-policy-nato-2022-04-11/
The Guardian (11/04/2022) Sweden and Finland make moves to join Nato. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/11/sweden-and-finland-make-moves-to-join-nato
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
