The end of the Morales’ rules and the (illegal) interim government
On October 2019 took place presidential elections, to which Morales was said the winner. However, it would have been his fourth mandate, which is unconstitutional and investigations demonstrated irregularities in the elections process. Therefore, the population protested against him and he had to resign. As the constitution foresees it, an interim government has been settled and had to prepare the next presidential elections within ninety days. Jeanine Anez, an opposition senator took the position of interim president, even if nowadays it is contested since she was not the first in the lign to occupy this position, decided because of covid to postpone the elections. However, this decision sparkled a contestation movement, which accused her of taking advantage of the situation. This led to an ultimatum imposed by COB and PdU leaders (parties sympathising with Morales), which required the elections to be confirmed two months laters. Since the demands were not met, they organised blockades throughout the countries which blocked the ambulances and medical equipments. This situation has been used by the interim president, which she qualified as crimes against humanity. Indeed, she saw a causal link between the blockade and the death of forty individuals in hospital due to covid. She decided to refer the situation to the ICC the 4th of September 2020 and the Prosecutor agreed to investigate on it. Thus, this action can be interpreted as a wish by Anez to strip Morales of all credibility and used the chaotic situation of covid to be deemed unable to lead investigations against him. This brought international attention to the case, which she thought could install the right in government and legitimaze this shift of powers.
Nevertheless, her tactic failed, since despite her say that she would not run for presidency she presented her candidature, but she has to remove it after a poll gave her the forth position.
Arce’s election: the revival of MAS’s party but a failure for harmony
The presidential election finally took place on the 18th of October 2020, from which Arce ended up the winner after only one round. This showed the non-rejection of the MAS’s party by the people but rather an outcry against Morales’ authoritarianism and disregard for the constitution. So despite Arce’s position of former financial minister of Morales, the call for socialist ideology impregnating Arce’s program made him win. Nonetheless, he needs to get free from Morales’ shadow and his continuing influence even in exile. Therefore, he is trying to appear though, including with the opposition. Indeed, he strived for Anez’s terrorism charges, which led her to prison. She is among other, charged for having overstepped the limit of the interim presidency and for the actions taken during her time as president, such as the repression of anti-governement protests, which engedered the death of few of the protesters.
Besides, Arce failed to follow the program for which he was elected because since his arrival at power the economic situation of the country is under pressure, the percentage of the companies’ collapse increased, which led to the increase of job seekers and poverty. The main focus of a socialist party is the life and working conditions of workers, which worsen due to the politic led by the governement. The latter is not even listening to conferations. Moreover, Arce passed a new law taxing the wealthy people, which in turn will not bring big revenues and compel business to remove their money from the country. Besides, a year after his election he faced a demonstration at national level from transport and retail unions, which accused him to use the judicial system to confer to himself more powers and act against dissent.
Therefore, it shall have been a good news for Arce, that the ICC’s Prosecutor decided to close the investigations. Indeed on the 14th of February 2022, the Prosecutor declared that the information available to the court were not sufficient to provide reasonable basis to believe that crimes against humanity occured during the events of August 2020. Furthermore, the blockade lasted for a limited period, the leaders of the blockaders agreed to negotiate and required from the blockaders to let pass ambulances and medical provisions, which fails the intent criteria in order to commit crimes against humanity. Lastly the causal link was not possible to establish between the blockade and the covid death at hospital.
This decision avoids Arce any international critics on Morales’ regime, which enabled him to be elected and from which he is taking the ideology. Nonetheless, it put him in a tricky position since he also claim to not be willing to walk in Morales’ steps but in order to get his total indepence it would require him to ask for the continuation of the investigations that the ICC’s stopped. By demonstrating his willingness to seek justice and especially against his mentor, he could beneficiate from a higher credibility, which he desesperatly needs. Bolivia, suffers since too long from a non-democratic regime and discontinuity in the politic led for it, so it is time for Bolivians to have a strong, legitimate and flawless learder.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
America Quarterly ‘Bolivia fails to trun the page’ <https://americasquarterly.org/article/bolivia-fails-to-turn-the-page/> accessed on the 17th of February 2022
Council on Foreign Relations ‘Understanding Bolivia’s Election’ <https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/understanding-bolivias-election> accessed on the 16th of February 2022
International Criminal Court ‘Situation in the Plurianational state of Bolivia’ <https://www.icc-cpi.int/itemsDocuments/2022-02-14-otp-report-bolivia-eng.pdf> accessed on the 16th of February 2022
Fair Observer ‘What should business Expect from Bolivia’s New President?’ <https://www.fairobserver.com/region/latin_america/craig-dempsey-luis-arce-catacora-evo-morales-business-environment-fdi-bolivia-news-01555/> accessed on the 17th of February 2022
Merco Press ‘UN Envoy due in Bolivia to monitor Anez’s trial’ <https://en.mercopress.com/2022/02/14/un-envoy-due-in-bolivia-to-monitor-nez-s-trial> accessed on the 16th of February 2022
Merco Press ‘New charges to be filed against Jeanine Anez in Bolivia’ <https://en.mercopress.com/2022/02/14/new-charges-to-be-filed-against-jeanine-nez-in-bolivia> accessed on the 16th of February 2022
Reuters ‘Bolivia unions go on strike as Political tensions rise’ <https://www.reuters.com/world/bolivia-unions-go-strike-political-tensions-rise-2021-11-08/> accessed on the 16th of February 2022
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
