When we talk about Afghanistan-India relations we usually refer to the diplomatic ties between India and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, which ruled over the territory between 2001 and 2021 until the Taliban’s takeover, the two parties are neighbors, they share both historical and cultural traditions and, as a matter of fact, the Republic of India was the only South Asian country to recognize the Republic of Afghanistan, clearly backed by the Soviets in the 1980s.
Due to the civil war that broke out in the latter, the relations between the two countries plummeted to the point that India aided the overthrow of the Taliban government becoming the largest regional provider of humanitarian and reconstruction aid to the former Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, it even became one of the key supporters of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance.
In addition, during the American-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, India volunteered to be of help by providing intelligence to support the coalitions forces and, once the democratic government was established, it participated actively in the reconstruction efforts, key to India’s strategy in the area was to build up transportation links that could bypass Pakistan and that would have reduced Afghan’s economic dependence on the said country.
Relations between the two of them have later strengthened in 2011 thanks to the signing of a strategic partnership agreement which was actually the first one that Afghanistan signed since the Soviet invasion in 1979, moreover, on 15 august 2019, also known as Indian Independence Day, it’s Prime Minister Modi extended a greeting to Afghanistan who was due was also celebrate the 100th Afghan Independence Day saying “Afghanistan is a good neighbor of India, and I wish the country for celebrating 100 years of independence this year.”adding “May our friendship last forever”.
Indian’s interests in Afghanistan are not merely related to a good-neighboring policy, India is interested in retaining Afghanistan as a friendly state from which it would have the capacity to monitor Pakistan and cultivate assets to influence activities there, but it’s fare more than this, India wants to be seen as a regional power, in truth, Indian policy in Afghanistan can be described as the dichotomy between its aspiration for a larger role in its north-western neighborhood and the real constraints on it, furthermore, according to foreign policy experts, India may have to think of reaching out to the Taliban in near future, at least sections of it that are independent-minded in order to achieve its goals.
However, the “soft power” strategy has limitations and the recent mocking of Donald Trump of New Delhi’s role in war-torn Afghanistan is a manifestation of this limitation, in spite of this, there is a domestic consensus in India that boots-on-ground is not an option as a consequence, India is in the dilemma between continued soft-power or to aggressively push its hard power.
Following the American leave in August 2021 and the consequent installment of the Taliban’s government, dozens of refugees from Afghanistan arrived in India, and by the end of the month, India had closed all its consulates except for Kabul’s one which was then evacuated.
What was shocking though, was the major shift that concerned India’s policy towards Afghanistan in 2021 when a source revealed that an Indian delegation visited Doha to meet the Taliban’s leadership through the mediatorship.
Though India’s principled position is that it will not directly or publicly talk to the Taliban until it engages the Afghan government remains valid, it is necessary that India stays abreast of all negotiations and isn’t cut out of the resolution process, as India’s army chief, General Bipin Rawat, recently asserted “India cannot be out of the bandwagon” because if “you are not sitting on the high table you will not know what is happening”, so it is time for New Delhi to engage the Taliban to secure its interests and this should be done in close coordination with Russia and Iran, constantly reminding them that complete surrender to the Taliban’s demands will be detrimental to their own security.
Another development that needs to be taken into account is the fact that, with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, Pakistan, which supports the radical Islamic group, will definitely enhance its influence over the state to a large degree whereas India, which stands with the U.S-backed Kabul government will do the exact contrary, most of the influence that India built during the years is likely to vanish if action is not taken and so whether or not India recognizes the new Taliban government and its allies, which would be a major political risk and a swift in foreign policy not to be underestimated.
Recently India has hosted senior security officials from Russia, Iran, and five Central Asian countries to discuss the situation in Afghanistan but no Afghan representative was in sight, “this is a time for close consultation among us” Doval said, then India’s ministry of External Affairs stated that the meeting will address the relevant security challenges and support the people of Afghanistan in promoting peace, security, and stability.
Let it be known that Pakistan refused to send a representative to the meeting which was described by MEA’s officials as “unfortunate but not surprising and as reflecting its mindset of viewing Afghanistan as its protectorate.”
When asked why no representative from Afghanistan has been invited to the gathering, Indian officials reply as follows “ the trouble is if you invite a representative from the Taliban government in Kabul, then, in essence, you will be according to its recognition, in some ways, acknowledging that government which India doesn’t want at this moment in time.”.
With this statement, India remains loyal to its history but still leaves the door open for upcoming developments.
References
India-Afghanistan Relations, available at:
India and Afghanistan, available at:
https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Afghanistan_2015_07_20.pdf
Indian relations with Afghanistan, available at:
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/india-afghanistan-relations
Indo-Afghan relations, available at:
https://eoi.gov.in/kabul/?0354?000
India poised to lose influence in Afghanistan, available at:
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/india-poised-to-lose-influence-in-afghanistan/
India hosts talks on Afghanistan, but no Afghan official has been invited, available at:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/10/india-afghanistan-talks-pakistan-china-taliban
By Gaia Gambaro : The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
